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HomeMy WebLinkAbout6.v. Metropolitan Council Thrive 2040 Estimates ROSEM.OUNT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CITY COUNCIL City Council Regular Meeting: November 19, 2013 AGENDA ITEM: Metropolitan Council Thrive 2040 AGENDA SECTION: Estimates Consent PREPARED BY: Eric Zweber, Senior Planner _ AGENDA NO. CV, V. ATTACHMENTS: Letter to Metropolitan Council; Thrive APPROVED BY: 2040 Estimate Spreadsheet. Doi RECOMMENDED ACTION: Motion to Approve the Thrive 2040 Estimate Letter to the Metropolitan Council and Authorize the Mayor to Sign the Letter. ISSUE The Metropolitan Council has provided all communities a preliminary Thrive 2040 population, household and employment estimate. The estimate for Rosemount is 29,200 people; 13,300 households; and 10,400 jobs. This is an increase of 7,326 people;4,813 households; and 1,868 jobs from the 2010 census. Staff believes these estimates are too low and has prepared a letter that is attached that explains the reasons for the City's conclusion. We are asking for additional households and population. For reference, the Metropolitan Council had estimated for the 2030 Comprehensive Plan a 2030 population of 38,400 people; 13,700 households; and 12,200 jobs. These numbers provided ten years ago have higher projections than the Metropolitan Council currently estimates for Rosemount in 2040. While the Great Recession has certainly slowed rates of growth everywhere than previously expected, these lower projections also reflect the bias that the Metropolitan Council has toward center city and first ring suburb growth. RECOMMENDATION Staff recommends that the City Council approve the letter to the Metropolitan Council and authorize the Mayor to sign the letter. 4 ROSEMOUN I MINNESOTA November 19,2013 Metropolitan Council Susan Haigh, Chair Steven Chavez,District 15 Council Member 390 Robert Street North St. Paul,MN 55101-1805 Re: Thrive MSP 2040 Preliminary Rosemount Forecast Dear Chair Haigh and Council Member Chavez: The City of Rosemount would like to express concern about the 2040 population and household estimates released for comment on September 11,2013.The City does not believe they reflect the character of Rosemount and our historic development pattern, and in our opinion,the estimates are too low. The household estimate does not 1 t in c ude for the future development of the UMore Park property into over 10,000 households,with an estimated population of approximately 30,000 people. While the City acknowledges that the entire development of UMore would not occur by 2040, the additional 4,813 households estimated by Metropolitan Council through 2040 do not recognize the potential growth available within Rosemount. Metropolitan Council staff has explained that the estimates are based on a real estate model that prefers central city development over outer edge suburbs,but the City believes that the Metropolitan Council should also acknowledge the market preferences that will be created through UMore. The UMore development is proposed as a mixed use community that provides a job to housing balance;includes sustainable elements that are increasing attractive in the real estate market;and is controlled by one land owner that can bring marketing advantages to the site versus several small land owners. The City believes that these factors should result in a 2040 household estimate that is greater than other similarly located"edge" communities. Additionally, the City understands that several developed Dakota County communities, such as Burnsville and Eagan,have expressed concerns that their housing markets would be able accommodate their respective 8,500 and 10,000 household increases. With these communities having less available green field land, and due to the high cost of redevelopment, Rosemount and other edge communities will be a natural choice for future residents wanting to live in Dakota County. Finally, Rosemount is concerned about the low persons per household figure used in Rosemount's 2040 estimates. The 2010 Census showed that Rosemount has an average of 2.88 persons per household. This high persons per household rate is expected in a community that is attractive to young families with our good school district and multiple bedroom single family SPIRIT OF PRIDE AND PROGRESS Rosemount City Hall • 2875 145th Street West • Rosemount, MN 55068-4997 651 -423-4411 • TDD/TTY 651 -423-6219 • Fax 651 -423-5203 www.ci.rosemount.mn.us housing. While Rosemount does expect to have a greater percentage of multiple family housing in the future,Rosemount will still have a good school district and a sizable amount of single family housing that will continue to be attractive to young families. Rosemount believes that the 2040 average of 2.35 persons per household is more suitable to a center city or first ring suburb that typically have a significantly greater amount of multiple family housing and two bedroom homes. Rosemount requests that the Metropolitan Council reconsider and increase the persons per household in Rosemount for 2040. Thank you for your consideration of Rosemount's concerns regarding the Thrive 2040 estimates. Sincerely, William H. Droste Mayor cc. Patrick Boylan Todd Graham 2040 Preliminary Forecasts Released for Comments, September 11,2013 `EtKormi1AN Note:These are preliminary and have not been adopted by the Council. 0=Rogers annexed Hassan Township In 2012;forecasts have been combined. (pt)denotes part of a city;remainder of city is In neighboring county. t=Laketown Township will be fully annexed before 2030;forecast has been reassigned to neighboring cities. POPULATION HOUSEHOLDS EMPLOYMENT 2000 2010 2040 2000 2010 2040 2000 2010 2040 ANOKA COUNTY Andover 26,588 30,598 35,800 8,107 9,811 15,600 3,583 4,669 5,500 Anoka 18,076 17,142 22,100 7,262 7,060 10,000 13,489 12,840 14,800 Bethel 443 466 790 149 174 370 229 86 640 Blaine(pt) 45,014 57,186 80,300 15,926 21,077 34,200 16,757 19,668 27,000 Centerville 3,202 3,792 4,600 1,077 1,315 1,990 363 409 670 Circle Pines 4,663 4,918 5,700 1,697 2,006 2,500 2,150 790 1,480 Columbia Heights 18,520 19,496 24,600 8,033 7,926 11,000 6,397 3,484 4,900 Columbus 3,957 3,914 4,300 1,328 1,416 1,960 507 1,172 2,450 Coon Rapids 61,607 61,476 71,700 22,578 23,532 32,600 21,682 23,260 35,000 East Bethel 10,941 11,626 16,600 3,607 4,060 7,700 1,374 1,123 1,990 Fridley 27,449 27,208 32,600 11,328 11,110 14,800 26,257 21,333 29,200 Ham Lake 12,710 15,296 16,200 4,139 5,171 7,100 3,194 2,931 4,600 Hilltop 766 744 1,360 400 380 600 257 314 400 Lexington 2,142 2,049 2,800 819 787 1,200 634 467 700 Lino Lakes 16,791 20,216 28,000 4,857 6,174 11,300 2,671 3,313 6,000 Linwood Township 4,668 5,123 6,500 1,578 1,884 3,100 154 219 350 Nowthen 3,557 4,443 5,700 1,123 1,450 2,600 337 318 630 Oak Grove 6,903 8,031 10,300 2,200 2,744 4,800 359 741 1,250 Ramsey 18,510 23,668 28,400 5,906 8,033 12,500 4,008 4,779 7,000 St.Francis 4,910 7,218 10,900 1,638 2,520 5,100 1,247 1,537 2,600 Spring Lake Park(pt) 6,667 6,234 6,500 2,676 2,597 3,000 4,401 2,934 3,800 Anoka County Total 298,084 330,844 415,750 106,428 121,227 184,020 110,050 106,387 150,960 CARVER COUNTY ;... Benton Township 939 786 640 307 297 300 282 274 370 Camden Township 955 922 720 316 329 340 15 56 110 Carver 1,266 3,724 6,900 458 1,182 3,000 176 187 340 Chanhassen(pt) 20,321 22,952 31,600 6,914 8,352 13,300 8,366 9,746 16,100 Chaska 17,603 23,770 30,500 6,169 8,816 13,400 10,955 11,123 15,200 Cologne 1,012 1,519 3,300 385 539 1,540 294 270 510 Dahlgren Township 1,453 1,331 1,150 479 494 530 203 202 310 Hamburg 538 513 590 206 201 280 117 109 130 Hancock Township 367 345 450 121 127 210 35 10 20 Hollywood Township 1,102 1,041 1,160 371 387 560 100 90 200 Laketown Township t 2,331 2,243 - 637 660 - 355 116 - Mayer 554 1,749 7,000 199 589 3,300 92 151 230 New Germany 346 372 1,180 143 146 560 50 46 120 Norwood Young America 3,108 3,549 8,000 1,171 1,389 3,800 1,559 1,165 2,040 San Francisco Township 888 832 900 293 307 420 61 46 120 Victoria 4,025 7,345 11,700 1,367 2,435 5,000 932 1,502 1,760 Waconia 6,814 10,697 16,100 2,568 3,909 6,900 4,082 5,578 8,200 Waconia Township 1,284 1,228 1,300 429 434 580 72 98 390 Watertown 3,029 4,205 5,900 1,078 1,564 2,800 682 556 1,510 Watertown Township 1,432 1,204 1,390 478 468 660 207 392 370 Young America Township 838 715 650 267 266 310 105 119 110 Carver County Total 70,205 91,042 131,130 24,356 32,891 57,790 28,740 31,836 48,140 POPULATION I HOUSEHOLDS ' EMPLOYMENT' 2000 2010 2040 2000 2010 2040 I 2000 72010 'i '2040 DAKOTA COUNTY Apple Valley 45,527 49,084 62,100 16,344 18,875 26,600 12,106 14,279 18,700 Burnsville 60,220 60,306 76,200 23,687 24,283 32,800 31,765 31,593 41,200 Castle Rock Township 1,495 1,342 1,100 514 504 510 344 356 440 Coates 163 161 160 64 66 70 252 109 180 Douglas Township 760 716 870 235 259 420 96 92 80 Eagan 63,557 64,206 86,800 23,773 25,249 36,100 42,750 49,526 70,000 Empire Township 1,638 2,444 2,500 515 792 1,130 217 255 320 Eureka Township 1,490 1,426 1,430 496 518 670 196 460 220 Farmington 12,365 21,086 26,900 4,169 7,066 11,600 3,986 4,438 7,300 Greenvale Township 684 803 1,240 227 275 590 68 49 640 Hampton 434 689 890 156 245 420 178 127 210 Hampton Township 986 903 1,230 320 329 580 186 85 210 Hastings(pt) 18,201 22,172 28,900 6,640 8,735 13,300 8,872 8,532 10,400 Inver Grove Heights 29,751 33,880 46,300 11,257 13,476 20,200 8,168 9,442 12,900 Lakeville 43,128 55,954 72,400 13,609 18,683 30,500 10,966 13,862 21,800 Lilydale 552 623 1,340 338 375 590 354 355 420 Marshan Township 1,263 1,106 1,110 404 403 520 220 117 320 Mendota 197 198 340 80 78 150 266 270 340 Mendota Heights 11,434 11,071 15,200 4,178 4,378 6,500 8,549 11,550 13,700 Miesville 135 125 150 52 52 70 97 116 120 New Trier 116 112 110 31 41 50 30 35 60 Nininger Township 865 950 840 280 372 400 165 149 330 Northfield(pt) 557 1,147 1,860 216 414 860 79 470 730 Randolph 318 436 490 117 168 230 123 122 100 Randolph Township 536 659 760 192 246 360 130 113 120 Ravenna Township 2,355 2,336 2,180 734 780 1,010 115 38 50 Rosemount 14,619 21,874 29,200 4,742 7,587 12,400 6,356 6,721 11,600 Sciota Township 285 414 510 92 140 240 21 33 250 South St.Paul 20,167 20,160 23,500 8,123 8,186 10,600 7,697 8,557 10,900 Sunfish Lake 504 521 560 173 183 260 23 8 - Vermillion 437 419 500 160 156 230 221 93 180 Vermillion Township 1,243 1,192 1,610 395 424 750 280 90 80 Waterford Township 517 497 650 193 193 310 461 679 1,010 West St.Paul 19,405 19,540 27,100 8,645 8,529 11,900 8,905 7,471 10,000 Dakota County Total 355,904 398,552 517,030 131,151 152,060 222,920 154,242 170,192 234,910 HENNEPIN COUNTY .. r,, Bloomington 85,172 82,893 113,600 36,400 35,905 49,900 104,548 86,530 108,100 Brooklyn Center 29,172 30,104 34,100 11,430 10,756 14,800 16,698 11,001 13,800 Brooklyn Park 67,388 75,781 90,500 24,432 26,229 36,900 23,692 24,084 36,000 Champlin 22,193 23,089 27,300 7,425 8,328 11,900 2,734 4,012 5,200 Chanhassen(pt) - - - - - - 979 1,159 1,160 Corcoran 5,630 5,379 9,100 1,784 1,867 4,000 1,792 1,093 1,780 Crystal 22,698 22,151 28,300 9,389 9,183 12,400 5,638 3,929 6,100 Dayton(pt) 4,693 4,617 7,300 1,546 1,619 3,300 1,057 921 2,250 Deephaven 3,853 3,642 3,400 1,373 1,337 1,450 1,021 688 880 Eden Prairie 54,901 60,797 82,700 20,457 23,930 33,900 51,006 48,775 64,000 Edina 47,425 47,941 70,800 20,996 20,672 30,200 52,991 47,457 61,100 Excelsior 2,393 2,188 3,000 1,199 1,115 1,300 1,823 2,220 2,240 Fort Snelling(unorg.) 442 149 190 - 135 140 35,526 23,215 24,000 Golden Valley 20,281 20,371 28,900 8,449 8,816 12,300 30,142 33,194 38,800 Greenfield 2,544 2,777 4,000 817 936 1,810 337 613 620 Greenwood 729 688 760 285 290 330 161 82 240 Hanover(pt) 332 609 890 113 196 400 86 36 90 Hopkins 17,367 17,591 27,400 8,359 8,366 12,300 11,979 11,009 13,200 POPULATION ,'HOUSEHOLDS '.,"' "'r°".t �'EMPCO rir,7-. 2000 2010 2040 2000 2010 2040 ' ._ 2000 ` ' l0'10•� '1' *:x3040' Independence 3,236 3,504 5,100 1,088 1,241 2,310 169 587 850 Long Lake 1,842 1,768 2,600 756 732 1,100 2,510 1,093 1,820 Loretto 570 650 790 225 269 350 661 366 340 Maple Grove 50,365 61,567 89,600 17,532 22,867 37,000 18,309 29,877 40,700 Maple Plain 2,088 1,768 2,800 770 723 1,250 1,792 1,579 1,930 Medicine Lake 368 371 530 159 160 220 10 15 100 Medina 4,005 4,892 7,600 1,309 1,702 3,300 3,254 3,351 6,000 Minneapolis 382,747 382,578 487,700 162,352 163,540 209,900 308,127 281,732 419,100 Minnetonka 51,102 49,734 74,700 21,267 21,901 32,200 51,276 44,228 60,100 Minnetonka Beach 614 539 500 215 201 240 201 174 40 Minnetrista 4,358 6,384 11,800 1,505 2,176 5,200 379 665 740 Mound 9,435 9,052 11,100 3,982 3,974 5,100 1,811 1,165 1,660 New Hope 20,873 20,339 26,800 8,665 8,427 11,800 13,565 11,080 15,000 Orono 7,538 7,437 10,100 2,766 - 2,826 4,400 1,110 1,562 1,650 Osseo 2,434 2,430 3,700 1,035 1,128 1,720 2,312 1,749 1,890 Plymouth 65,894 70,576 101,800 24,820 28,663 42,200 53,491 46,227 68,500 Richfield 34,310 35,228 45,400 15,073 14,818 20,300 11,762 15,604 19,600 Robbinsdale 14,123 13,953 18,800 6,097 6,032 8,500 7,109 6,858 7,600 Rockford(pt) 144 426 870 57 184 400 384 94 630 Rogers 0 6,051 11,197 15,900 1,973 3,748 6,900 5,414 7,907 12,900 St.Anthony(pt) 5,664 5,156 7,600 2,402 2,210 3,200 1,992 1,626 1,900 St.Bonifacius 1,873 2,283 2,420 681 863 1,040 436 478 460 St.Louis Park 44,102 45,250 68,200 20,773 21,743 30,500 40,696 40,485 46,100 Shorewood 7,400 7,307 8,100 2,529 2,658 3,400 782 1,113 1,430 Spring Park 1,717 1,669 2,410 930 897 1,000 1,028 583 1,140 Tonka Bay 1,547 1,475 1,470 614 586 680 266 298 430 Wayzata 4,113 3,688 6,100 1,929 1,795 2,700 6,268 4,567 7,200 Woodland 480 437 450 173 169 190 22 8 30 Hennepin County Total 1,116,206 1,152,425 1,547,180 456,131 475,913 664,430 877,346 805,089 1,099,400 RAMSEYCOUNTY . .-.- �.. . Arden Hills 9,652 9,552 12,500 2,959 2,957 4,300 12,326 12,402 17,900 Blaine(pt) - - - - - - 677 893 1,080 Falcon Heights 5,572 5,321 5,800 2,103 2,131 2,380 4,190 5,298 4,600 Gem Lake 419 393 510 139 155 240 586 526 600 Lauderdale 2,364 2,379 2,900 1,150 1,130 1,360 360 718 1,010 Little Canada 9,771 9,773 13,900 4,375 4,393 6,300 5,960 5,467 8,300 Maplewood 35,258 38,018 49,700 13,758 14,882 21,400 29,259 27,635 33,200 Mounds View 12,738 12,155 15,700 5,018 4,954 6,900 4,170 6,386 7,800 New Brighton 22,206 21,456 28,900 9,013 8,915 12,700 11,007 9,213 12,300 North Oaks 3,883 4,469 6,200 1,300 1,746 2,500 1,091 1,260 1,080 North St.Paul 11,929 11,460 14,800 4,703 4,615 6,800 3,499 2,942 3,500 Roseville 33,690 33,660 46,300 14,598 14,623 20,600 39,211 35,104 45,000 St.Anthony(pt) 2,348 3,070 4,200 1,295 1,638 1,900 1,390 1,357 2,050 St.Paul 286,840 285,068 338,900 112,109 111,001 146,000 188,124 175,933 253,400 Shoreview 25,924 25,043 35,000 10,125 10,402 14,900 9,938 11,665 14,800 Spring Lake Park(pt) 105 178 220 48 75 100 202 66 20 Vadnais Heights 13,069 12,302 18,600 5,064 5,066 8,200 7,164 6,678 12,300 White Bear Township 11,293 10,949 14,300 4,010 4,261 6,200 2,131 2,309 3,400 White Bear Lake(pt) 23,974 23,394 31,000 9,469 9,747 14,100 12,020 11,085 13,600 Ramsey County Total 511,035 508,640 639,430 201,236 202,691 276,880 333,305 316,937 435,940 POPULATION HOUSEHOLDS EMPLOYMENT 2000 2010 2040 I 2000 2010 2040 I 2000 2010 2040 SCOTT COUNTY Belle Plaine 3,789 6,661 11,500 1,396 2,362 5,100 1,428 1,847 2,700 Belle Plaine Township 806 878 830 266 310 370 77 69 130 Blakeley Township 496 418 350 166 165 170 70 69 150 Cedar Lake Township 2,197 2,779 3,200 719 939 1,440 91 82 250 Credit River Township 3,895 5,096 5,900 1,242 1,662 2,600 265 397 330 Elko New Market 804 4,110 8,000 286 1,259 3,500 248 317 750 Helena Township 1,440 1,648 1,540 450 548 730 473 147 420 Jackson Township 1,361 1,464 1,480 461 486 650 92 168 620 Jordan 3,833 5,470 7,200 1,349 1,871 3,300 1,321 1,587 2,450 Louisville Township 1,359 1,266 1,040 410 425 440 476 298 350 New Market Township 3,057 3,440 2,800 956 1,146 1,200 262 325 240 New Prague(pt) 3,157 4,280 7,400 1,160 1,618 3,500 2,282 2,142 2,480 Prior Lake 15,917 22,796 34,300 5,645 8,447 14,700 7,972 7,766 11,800 St.Lawrence Township 472 483 560 144 161 250 145 48 210 Sand Creek Township 1,551 1,521 1,210 478 554 570 249 298 530 Savage 21,115 26,911 34,400 6,807 9,116 14,100 5,366 6,753 9,900 Shakopee 20,568 37,076 49,800 7,540 12,772 20,100 13,938 18,831 28,800 Spring Lake Township 3,681 3,631 3,500 1,217 1,267 1,590 176 390 180 Scott Coun Total 89,498 129,928 175,010 30,692 45,108 74,310 34 931 41 534 62,290 WA' • .7N Afton 2,839 2,886 3,800 996 1,081 1,700 351 411 530 Bayport 3,162 3,471 4,600 763 855 1,310 4,900 3,790 5,000 Baytown Township 1,533 1,617 2,060 492 573 930 154 69 210 Birchwood Village 968 870 890 357 351 400 20 25 30 Cottage Grove 30,582 34,589 40,700 9,932 11,719 17,400 6,263 6,484 9,200 Dellwood 1,033 1,065 1,200 353 373 510 282 277 310 Denmark Township 1,348 1,737 2,280 481 615 990 386 629 520 Forest Lake 14,440 18,377 26,900 5,433 7,015 12,400 6,636 6,449 10,200 Grant 4,026 4,094 4,300 1,374 1,463 1,890 750 449 670 Grey Cloud Island Township 307 295 250 117 117 120 50 10 60 Hastings(pt) 3 - - 2 - 224 64 100 Hugo 6,363 13,332 23,200 2,125 4,990 10,300 1,917 1,973 3,500 Lake Elmo 6,863 8,061 11,700 2,347 2,776 5,000 1,682 1,941 3,000 Lakeland 1,917 1,796 2,800 691 681 1,320 374 302 470 Lakeland Shores 355 311 390 116 117 180 20 26 40 Lake St.Croix Beach 1,140 1,053 1,280 462 460 580 50 129 100 Landfall 700 663 610 292 257 270 50 25 20 Mahtomedi 7,563 7,676 8,800 2,503 2,827 3,900 1,252 2,090 2,600 Marine on St.Croix 602 689 1,000 254 302 460 235 124 200 May Township 2,928 2,776 3,700 1,007 1,083 1,670 40 66 150 Newport 3,715 3,435 5,200 1,418 1,354 2,500 2,480 1,605 2,210 Oakdale 26,653 27,401 33,900 10,243 10,956 14,900 7,812 8,651 13,700 Oak Park Heights 3,777 4,445 6,300 1,528 1,911 2,700 2,713 4,358 5,400 Pine Springs 421 408 410 140 144 180 10 72 100 St.Marys Point 344 366 400 132 147 180 10 15 10 St.Paul Park 5,070 5,273 7,500 1,829 1,967 3,400 1,399 1,515 1,800 Scandia 3,692 3,934 4,900 1,294 1,498 2,240 272 519 780 Stillwater 15,323 18,227 23,100 5,797 7,076 10,400 10,719 9,628 10,400 Stillwater Township 2,553 2,364 2,210 833 855 1,000 120 165 210 West Lakeland Township 3,547 4,054 6,400 1,101 1,286 2,800 313 232 450 White Bear Lake(pt) 351 403 560 149 198 260 131 184 130 Willernie 549 507 680 225 218 300 135 182 270 Woodbury 46,463 61,961 78,200 16,676 22,594 31,400 15,899 19,438 28,600 Washington County Total 201,130 238,136 310,220 71,462 87,859 133,590 67,649 71,897 100,970 METRO AREA 2,642,062 2,849,687 3,736,000 1,021,466 1,117,749 1,614,000 1,606;263 1,643,AT2 •'1,133,000