HomeMy WebLinkAbout9.a. South Urban Gateway Analysis for Reinvestment (SUGAR) 4ROSEMOUNTEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
CITY COUNCIL
City Council Date: August 19, 2014
AGENDA ITEM: South Urban Gateway Analysis for AGENDA SECTION:
Reinvestment (SUGAR) New Business
PREPARED BY: Eric Zweber, Senior Planner
AGISMDA W,
C1•Q•
ATTACHMENTS: South Urban Gateway Analysis for APPRQVEDBY:
Reinvestment Report; Market Potential
Assessment for South Urban Gateway
Corridor
RECOMMENDED ACTION: Motion to approve the South Urban Gateway Analysis for
Reinvestment (SUGAR) Report.
SUMMARY
The South Urban Gateway Analysis for Reinvestment (SUGAR) is an area-specific planning study to
review the current businesses and land uses in the South Gateway and evaluate the possibilities for private
investment and redevelopment. The South Gateway District is an hourglass shaped neighborhood
currently comprised of commercial and agricultural uses along South Robert Trail between County State
Aid Highway (CSAH) 42 and CSAH 46. The project area serves as a gateway to Rosemount for all
travelers heading north on South Robert Trail including commuters from Farmington, Empire Township,
and Northfield. The north half of the project area is developed with commercial and light industrial uses,
many of which are over 25 years old. The south half of the project area is a mix of farm fields, a former
village dump, a car repair business, and a natural gas storage facility.
The SUGAR report was prepared over the last year by the South Gateway Committee,which consisted of:
Melissa Kenninger,Resident (Chair)
Jamal Abdulahi,Resident
Richard Battaglia, Business Owner (Rick's Auto)
Kay Butler,Business Owner (McDonald's)
Mark DeBettignies, City Council
William Droste,Mayor
Randy Dukek, Business Representative (ISD 196 Coordinator of Transportation)
Joseph Kurle,Planning Commission
Robert Leuth, Port Authority
Nicholas Rapp,Business Owner (Rapp Chiropractic)
Michael Weber, Planning Commission
The creation of the Report was accompanied by the Market Potential Assessment for South Urban
Gateway Corridor prepared by the Maxfield Research. This Market Assessment supports the
implementation strategies recommended within the Report.
City staff conducted two open houses to gather input on the Report and its recommendations, first on the
morning of Wednesday June 4 specifically for the business and property owners and the second on
Thursday,June 5 for the general public,including businesses. On Wednesday morning,representatives of
the South Gateway businesses from Marcus Theater,Lighthouse Marine, Burger King,Jason Laube's State
Farm and Dr. Chroust attended and were joined by Paul Eggen of State Farm,Vicki Stute of the Chamber
and the Terrys from Terry's Hardware. On Thursday evening,representatives of the South Gateway area
from the Carlson's, Berg Construction, Crown Rental, the former bowling alley and Lighthouse Marine
attended and were joined by two residents and Brian Brakke of Merchant's Bank.
Most of the discussion was about the individual properties with only one objection from Lighthouse
Marine that the property where his property is located will remain community commercial. This will keep
his business non-conforming, due to the amount of exterior storage on the site. He stated that he has
been looking for a larger location for about three years and cannot find a location that he can afford.
Lighthouse Marine is located in the building owned by Berg Construction. The broker for Berg
Construction's building stated that the current owner of Lighthouse Marine is much more successful than
the previous two owners and has increased the amount of outside storage as compared to previous
owners of the business. He stated that the Bergs'main concern is the ISD 196 bus garage and he stated
that the large number of buses that drive on 151st Street to get to Chippendale Ave has scared some
businesses looking to lease the Berg Construction's building.
Following the adoption of the SUGAR Report by the City Council, the Planning Commission will begin
reviewing and implementing the Report's recommendations, such as amending the Comprehensive Plan
designations and addressed the proper Zoning district for gas stations and quick automobile maintenance
businesses.
South Robert Trail Access Study
In conjunction with the SUGAR study, staff has been conducting a the Trunk Highway 3 Corridor Study
with the Minnesota Department of Transportation (MNDOT) to determine potential access points and
intersections along South Robert Trail. This can be a useful tool when working with developers to
redevelopment parcels in accordance with the land uses depicted in the SUGAR report. WSB has
prepared an access layout that would support redevelopment while meeting the standards and geometries
of the traffic projections. Unfortunately, MnDOT has requested fewer accesses than WSB had prepared,
partially because MnDOT classifies access spacing on this segment of South Robert Trail as a principal
arterial while the City, the County and the Metropolitan Council classify South Robert Trail as a minor
arterial. Staff is discussing this issue with MnDOT staff to fords a suitable resolution.
Planning Commission and Port Authority Review
The Planning Commission has reviewed the SUGAR report at their July 22 meeting and recommended
that the City Council approve the SUGAR report.
The Port Authority will be reviewing the SUGAR report at their August 19 meeting and staff has
recommended that they recommend that the City Council approve the SUGAR report. Staff will provide
the City Council an update at the meeting if the Port Authority acts different that the staff
recommendation.
RECOMMENDATION
Staff recommends approval of the South Urban Gateway Analysis for Reinvestment (SUGAR) report.
2
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South Urban Gateway Analysis for Reinvestment
(SUGAR)
rVC)SEMOUNT
- 2875 145th Street West
Rosemount, MN 55068-4997
Approved August 19, 2014
CONTENTS
Vision....................................................................................................1
Introduction............................................................................................2
BlockAnalyses.........................................................................................8
Rosemount Market Square..................................................................8
SouthRose....................................................................................9
Former Carlson Site/Bus Garage..........................................................11
Rick's Auto/Bowling Alley.................................................................13
MovieTheater...............................................................................15
CSAH 46 Northwest.........................................................................17
CSAH46 Northeast..........................................................................20
Implementation...........................................................................................21
CREDITS
South Gateway Committee
Melissa Kenninger,Resident (Chair)
Jamal Abdulahi,Resident
Richard Battaglia,Business Owner(Rick's Auto)
Kay Butler,Business Owner(McDonald's)
Mark DeBettignies,City Council
William Droste,Mayor
Randy Dukek,Business Representative (ISD 196 Coordinator of Transportation)
Joseph Kurle,Planning Commission
Robert Leuth,Port Authority
Nicholas Rapp,Business Owner (Rapp Chiropractic)
Michael Weber,Planning Commission
City Staff
Kim Lindquist,Community Development Director
Eric Zweber,Senior Planner
Jason Lindahl,Planner
Julie Wotczak,GIS Analyst
Clarissa Hadler,Community Development Intern
Financial Assistance
Dakota County Community Development Agency:
Redevelopment Incentive Planning Grant
1i
List of Figures
Figure 12030 Comprehensive Plan Current Land Use Map.......................................3
Figure2 Zoning Map....................................................................................4
Figure 3 Non-Conforming Uses......................................................................5
Figure 4 Non-Conforming Sites......................................................................6
Figure 5 Visibility Map................................................................................7
Figure 6 Rosemount Market Square Block Map...................................................8
Figure 7 South Rose Block Map....................................................................10
Figure 8 Former Carlson Site/Bus Garage Block Map............................................11
Figure 9 Rick's Auto/Bowling Alley Block Map..................................................13
Figure 10 Movie Theater Block Map...............................................................15
Figure 11 CSAH 46 Northwest Block Map.......................................................17
Figure 12 CSAH 46 Northeast Block Map........................................................19
Figure 13 Proposed Land Use Changes............................................................21
List of Tables
Table 1 Rosemount Market Square Block Analysis.................................................9
Table 2 Chippendale/Carrousel Way Block Analysis.............................................10
Table 3 Former Carlson Site/Bus Garage Block Analysis........................................12
Table 4 Rick's Auto/Bowling Alley Block Analysis..............................................14
Table 5 Movie Theater Block Analysis..............................................................16
Table 6 Murgic's Automotive and Dovestone/Pahl Blocks Analysis...........................18
iii
VISION
The City identified the need to review the South Urban Gateway commercial district for a number of
reasons,including the number of non-conforming uses and site; the amount of undeveloped land;
some businesses have recently changed or have made new investments in their business;and to clarify
and market the differences of South Urban Gateway district from the Downtown district and the
future commercial districts at Akron Avenue,US Highway 52 and Minnesota Highway 55. The South
Urban Gateway Analysis for Reinvestment (SUGAR) is modeled after the Development Framework
for Downtown Rosemount and its success in creating redevelopment and investment Downtown. To
begin SUGAR,the South Gateway Committee created a vision that states that purpose of the study as
well as stated the difference from Downtown planning efforts.
"The South Gateway is positioned along regional transportation corridors to serve Rosemount
residents'demands, as well as those of the neighboring communities. The South Urban
Gateway Analysis for Reinvestment aspires to support private investments in suitable
businesses while encouraging new businesses to serve the expanding needs demanded by a
growing community. The scale and character of South Urban Gateway development should
complement the existing street pattern and planned extensions to maintain a sustainable and
viable business community."
Unlikely Downtown,the South Urban Gateway will support a wide varied of commercial business that
meet the needs of not only Rosemount's residences,but also the neighboring communities. The City
desires to support the existing businesses and encourage bringing their site into compliance with the
City Codes when the businesses invest in themselves. The City does not anticipate creating a tax
increment financing(nF) district or invest significant City funds in the South Urban Gateway as it has
in Downtown and therefore understands that depending on private investments may mean that the
vision of the South Urban Gateway may take numerous decades to be fulfilled. Finally,the City is
expecting that the existing street pattern will remain and therefore the future investments and
redevelopment will need to meet the scale of the existing blocks.
To support the creation of this report and the district's investment,a market study has been prepared
by Maxfield Research and a traffic access plan has been approved by the Minnesota Department of
Transportation (MnDOT). The market study and access plan are considered appendixes to this
report.
1
INTRODUCTION
The South Urban Gateway Analysis for Reinvestment(SUGAR) is an area-specific planning study to
review the current businesses and land uses in the South Gateway and evaluate the possibilities for
private investment and redevelopment. The South Gateway District is an hourglass shaped
neighborhood currently of commercial and agricultural uses along South Robert Trail between
County State Aid Highway (CSAH) 42 and CSAH 46. The project area serves as a gateway to
Rosemount for all travelers heading north on South Robert Trail including commuters from
Farmington,Empire Township,and Northfield. The north half of the project area is developed
with commercial and light industrial uses,many of which are over 25 years old. The south half of
the project area is a mix of farm fields,a former village dump,a car repair business,and a natural gas
storage facility.
SUGAR will create a development plan that will evaluate what businesses and uses are suitable to
remain in the north half of the project area while creating a redevelopment strategy for the other
parcels and buildings.The plan will also evaluate the best and highest development scenario for the
south half along with addressing Brownfield clean up and redevelopment. Since the south entrance
to the City traverses the project area,and numerous rush hour drivers pass by each day,the City sees
the potential to add important tax base while providing additional jobs for our residents and other
commuters,thereby reducing commuter trips. SUGAR includes a market/feasibility study,
recommendations of Comprehensive Plan Land Use Amendments,and recommendations of zoning
code revisions necessary to support private investments and redevelopment.
The South Gateway District is surrounded by residential neighborhoods to the west and northwest;
a commercial strip development existing to the west and planned to the east along CSAH 42; the
mixed use Downtown Rosemount located directly north along South Robert Trail;and business
park/industrial use located to the east. Educational uses are less than a mile away to the north with
Rosemount High,Middle,and Elementary Schools and about a mile to the east on CSAH 42 with
Dakota County Technical College (DCTC). The development and the redevelopment of the South
Gateway District will improve the jobs-housing balance by providing jobs and employment centers
near the existing residential developments. Rosemount High School and DCTC can provide
workers trained and educated specifically for the businesses located in the South Gateway.
The north half of the project area is developed mostly with buildings constructed from 1961
through the early 1980s.There are vacancies or short term uses in buildings that no longer suit
retailers'needs,such as the former farm implement dealership on the southwest corner of South
Robert Trail and CSAH 42. The south half of the project area is a mix of agriculture and
brownfields. SUGAR will provide recommendations that support investments in existing businesses
while encouraging the development of vacant lands or redevelopment of obsolete sites into uses that
are more suitable to the mature mixed use community that Rosemount has become. The
market/feasibility study has evaluated the highest land use potential for the project area and the
expected redevelopment timeline. SUGAR's recommendations have considered the transitions
needed between residential neighborhoods to the west and the business park/industrial uses to the
east.
Development in the South Gateway District has already begun with reinvestment in Rosemount
Market Square retail along CSAH 42 and recent commercial development on Chippendale Avenue.
The South Gateway is large enough and has city services in place to develop multiple phases
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simultaneously. In the north half, the southwest corner of South Robert Trail and CSAH 42 is
expected to redevelop first. In the south half,it is anticipated that the intersection of South Robert
Trail and Canada Circle will be developed first,including a street connection to Boulder Trail.
Land Use
The land use designation (figure 1) for the
majority of the South Gateway is CC:
Community Commercial,which is
appropriate for most retail and office
commercial uses. One lot(Lot 32) within
the South Gateway is designated BP:
Business Park. Lot 32 is the Independent �0
School District#196 administrative offices
that are housed within a two story office '
building. A small area north of Canada 32
Circle and west of South Robert Trail (Lots
41,42, and 43) is designated RC: Regional `
Commercial. This area is the former
Rosemount Village dump and the former �e
South Robert Trail right-of-way. The
former dump is currently used as the City
public works yard and the former right-of-
way is currently vacant. The regional r
commercial land use envisions this area to ,.M"" t 3!i
be redeveloped into commercial uses that
require outdoor storage (such as auto repair w
and sales) or are more industrial-like (such JP
as contractors or equipment rental). W
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Figure 1.The City adopted the current land use map with the adoption of
the 2030 Comprehensive Plan in November 2009. No Comprehensive Plan
Amendments have been requested or approved in the South Gateway since
2009.
3
Zoning
There are five different zoning districts
within the South Gateway District: C-3:
Highway Commercial;C-4 General
Commercial;BP: Business Park;GI:
General Industrial;and PI: Public and
Institutional. The zoning districts of the
woe north half of the South Gateway have
0
zoning districts that are compliant with
their land use designation(General
Commercial zoning for the Community
Commercial land use and Business Park
zoning for the Business Park land use).
None of the zoning districts of the south
half of the South Gateway are compliant
with their land use designation. Most of the
lots in the south half of the district are
vacant and therefore the proper zoning
district can be addressed when the
,,. properties develop. The two southern lots
a that are developed are Lot 38 (Murgic's
d Automotive: Highway Commercial) and Lot
' 40 (Sera Stream Propane: General
a Industrial). SUGAR will evaluate if these
Z
two businesses are appropriate to remain as
Z _ long term uses.
- v I
39 37 a 36 Non-Conformities
In the context of the South Gateway,
W
o zoning non-conformities are businesses that
40 do not meet the entirety of the regulations
of the zoning district that they are in. Being
non-conforming can have impacts on a
business's operations and investments
because non-conformities cannot expand.
There are two general types of non-
conformities: non-conforming uses and
- non-conforming sites.
Figure 2 Zoning districts describe the appropriate uses allowed in the Ten of the 43 lots within the South
districts and the design and operational standards that the uses need to
operate within. If a business or land use is not compliant with the zoning Gateway have non-conforming uses. Lots 1
district standards,then they are non-conforming. and 2 have automobile orientated uses
(Holiday gas station and Valvoline oil
change);Lots 11, 13,and 14 are the former Carlson Tractor site and the current school district bus
garage;Lot 26 has a contracting business and recreational vehicle sales business;Lot 29 is a car
wash;Lot 30 is a business that includes light assembly and manufacturing;Lot 33 has a number of
vehicle repair businesses;and Lot 40 has an industrial propane distribution business. For Lots 1 and
2,this report recommends considering amending the Zoning Ordinance to allow gas stations and
4
quick auto service adjacent to retail commercial uses. For Lot 33, this report recommends changing
that lot to a RC:Regional Commercial land use that would allow vehicle repair. For the remaining
seven non-conforming lots,the report recommends that zoning and land uses stay the same;
therefore,the only way for these lots to become conforming is through redevelopment into allowed
business use.
Non-Conformin Uses
Map ID Common Name Conformance
#
1 Holiday Station Non-Conforming 1 2 3 5 6 . 13
2 Valvoline Instant Oil Chan Non-Conforming 9 4 11
3 Burger King Conforming 7
4 Rosemount Market Square Conforming
5 Hon Kong Bistro Conforming 15 16 t 7 8
6 McDonald's Conforming 18 19 14 t�
7 Dairy ueen Conforming 20 21 26 27 Q�
8 Taco ohn s Conforming 22 23 28 pO�
9 Chippendale Center Conforming 25 30 29 g�
10 Vermillion State Bank Conforming 24
11 ISD#196 Non-Conform ng 31
12 Vermillion State Bank Conforming 32 33
13 Former Carlson Tractor Non-Conforming
14 ISD#196 Non-Conforming
15 State Farm Insurance Conforming 34
16 Leaps&Bounds Daycare Conformin
17 Winters Pediatric Dentistry Conformin
18 Detlefson Office Conformingbt
19 Dance Connection Conforming
20 Rapp Chiropractic Conforming
21 Rose Park Mechanical Bldg Conforming
22 Chroust Family Dentistry Conforming
23 3 Gus Sewing Conforming
24 Vacant Land Vacant
25 Vacant Land Vacant " ' ` 35
26 Berg Retail Strip Center Non-Conforming\•
27 Vacant Land Vacant 0 41
28 Crown Rental Conforming8
29 The Spa Carwash Non-Conformin > �� 42 43
30 Access Specialties Non-Conforming
ui
31 Rosemount Theatre Conforming
32 ISD#196 Conforming ° /
z Q 38
33 Rick's Automotive Repair Non-Conforming
34 City Limits Bowfin Alley Conformin =
35 Vacant Land Vacant " / 39 37 F 36
36 Vacant Land Vacant
37 Vacant Land Vacant
w
38 Mur is Automotive Conforming to
40 0
39 Vacant Land Vacant W
40 Sem Stream Propane Non-Conformin Cn
fey
41 Former Village Dump Vacant
42 1 Former Village D mp Vacant
43 1 Former Village Dump Vacant
Figure 3 Non-conforming uses are businesses that are not allowed in the zoning district that they are in. In general,businesses that are non-
conforming uses cannot be expanded and businesses often tend to decay over time because business owners cannot invest in their business. These
decaying businesses can have an impact on the neighboring businesses and provide a negative view of the entire commercial neighborhood. Non-
conforming uses can become conforming uses in one of three ways. First,their property can be re-zoned to a zoning district that would allow their
business. Second,the Zoning Ordinance can be amended to add their use to the zoning district that their property is in. Third,the existing business
can go away and a conforming use opens in its location. The SUGAR report recommendations look at these options on a block by block basis.
5
Seventeen of the 43 lots in the South Gateway have non-conforming sites. Of the 17 lots, seven of
these non-conforming sites are also businesses that will remain non-conforming uses. As stated
above,it is not anticipated that these seven businesses would invest in their businesses to resolve
their non-conforming sites. The City expects that these lots would become conforming when the
properties redevelop. The remaining ten lots that have business that are or will be conforming uses
that would be expected to improve their sites during future investment in their businesses.
Non-Conforming Sites
Map ID# Common Name Conformance � 1 2 5 6 2
1 Holiday Station Conforming 13
2 Valvoline Instant Oil Chan Non-Conforming 9 4 11
3 Burger King Non-Conforming 7
4 Rosemount Market Square Conforming 15 16 17 8
5 1 Hong Kong Bistro Non-Conforming
6 McDonald's Conforming 18 19 14
7 Dairy Queen Conforming 20 21 26 27
8 Taco John's Conforming 22 23
9 Chippendale Center Conforming 30 28
10 Vermillion State Bank Non-Conforming 24 25 29
11 ISD#196 Non-Conforming
12 Vermillion State Bank Non-Conforming 31 33
13 Former Carlson Tractor Non-Conforming 32
14 ISD#196 Non-Conforining-
15 State Farm Insurance Non-Conforming 34
16 Leaps&Bounds Daycare Conforming
17 Winters Pediatric Dentistry Conforming
18 Dedefson Office Conforming
19 Dance Connection Non-Conforming WACHTER
20 Rapp Chiropractic Confomun g LAKE
21 Rose Park Mechanical Bldg Conforming
22 Chroust Family Dentistry Conforming
23 3 Gus Sewing Conforming
24 Vacant Land Conforming
25 Vacant Land Conforming 35
26 Berg Retail Strip Center Non-Conforming 41
27 Vacant Land Conforming
28 Crown Rental Conforming
29 The Spa Carwash Non-Conforming 42 43
30 Access Specialties Non-Conformi
31 Rosemount Theatre Conforming-----
32 ISD#196 Conformin
33 Rick's Automotive Repair Non-Conforming 38
34 City Limits Bowling Alley Non-Conforming='y
35 Vacant Land Conforming
36 Vacant Land Conforming 39 37 36
37 Vacant Land Conformin
38 Mur is Automotive Non-Conformin
39 Vacant Land Conforming
40 Sem Stream Propane Non-Conforming 40
41 Former Village Dump Conforming
42 Former Village Dump Conforming
43 Former Village ump Conformi
Figure 4 Non-conforming sites are businesses that either are dimensionally non-conforming(i.e.,the building is too close to the property line)or do
not meet the aesthetics standards of the City Code. In general,businesses can resolve their non-conforming site status through reinvestment in their
businesses. Businesses that are conforming use often will invest in their business over time,while businesses that are non-conforming use often will
not because they will not see the return on their investments.These non-conforming use sites will likely continue to decay. The SUGAR report does
not provide any recommendation to amend the Zoning Ordinance to reduce the dimensional or aesthetics standards.
6
Visibility
The South Gateway has positive visibility due to 6 sue '
the major,east-to-west running County Road on
the north and south borders of the district and the
State Highway running north to south through the �^
district. CSAH 42 running on the north boundary
of the district has 17,400 daily trips driving by the
district and CSAH 46 running on the south
boundary of the district has 13,100 daily trips.
Both of these County Roads would be expected to
become busier as Rosemount and surrounding w=
communities grow. South Robert Trail,running
north to south through the district,has 8,900 daily
trips. South Robert Trail traffic is not expected to
significantly increase because the adjacent north-
south transportation corridors will be improved as 0
development occurs.
The only new road planned within district is an
extension of Boulder Avenue within Business
Park to South Robert Trail at the general location
of the existing Canada Circle. This intersection is
expected to have a signal and will have significant
traffic counts when the UMore property,about 3/4 •
of a mile to the east,develops. The Boulder Figure 5 The existing local street network within the district does not have
Avenue extension will increase the visibility of the significant traffic counts and is not expected to increase. The
block northeast of the South Robert Trail and redevelopment of the sites that are orientated to these local roads may be
limited due to lower visibility.
CSAH 46 intersection (Lots 35 and 36).
7
BLOCK ANALYSIS: ROSEMOUNT MARKET SQUARE BLOCK
Block Overview.•
The Rosemount Market Square block is bounded by County Road
42 to the north, 151"Street West to the south,Canada Avenue to
the east,and Chippendale Avenue to the east. It includes
properties 1 through 9.
Development Concept
Properties in the Rosemount Market Square blocks were platted
between 1979 and 1994 and individual sites were developed
between 1979 and 2012. The Holiday site was platted as part of
South Rose Park Addition in 1979. The eastern portion(Hong
Kong Bistro,McDonalds, Dairy Queen,and Taco John's) was
platted as part of South Rose Park 2°a Addition in 1983. The
middle portion (Valvoline,Burger King,Rosemount Liquor, s ,
Chippendale Center,and the Rosemount Market Square mall) was y
platted in 1994. The most recent development in this area was the
reconstruction of McDonalds in 2012.
Key Elements " ,F
This block is guide CC—Community Commercial and zoned C-4, Figure G Rosemount Market Square
General Commercial. County Road 42 provides high visibility with a limited (3/4) midblock access.
Chief access to the site comes from Canada Avenue to the east and Chippendale Avenue to the west,
which includes a full intersection with a stoplight at County Road 42.
An examination of the properties on this block finds a diverse mix of high quality retail,professional
service, and restaurant uses with limited non-conformities.
• The Holiday gas station is a non-conforming use but conforms to the site standards.
• Hong Kong Bistro is a conforming use but does not meet many of the site and building
standards (building materials,parking lot,and screening).
• Valvoline Instant Oil Change is a non-conforming use and fails to meet the minimum lot size
standard.
• Burger King is a conforming use but fails to meet the pedestrian access standard.
• The Rosemount Market Square Mall,McDonald's,Dairy Queen,Taco John's,and the
Chippendale Center are all confirming uses and sites.
Dakota County plans to expand County Road 42 to six lanes as conditions warrant. Expanding
County Road 42 would require additional right-of-way which will likely impact setbacks to abutting
properties in Rosemount Market Square.
Rezoning to C-3 would allow both Holiday and Valvoline as conditional uses;however,this change
would not address the non-conforming site issues. It is important to note that a change to C-3 would
also open the area to other uses in this district including auto sales,lumber,and construction
businesses that were intentionally removed during the 2005 zoning update. The existing C-3
8
conditional use permit standards for auto orientated uses would call for the building to be the primary
source of screening,require repair activity to take place inside a building,and limit the amount and
location of outdoor product display. Contactor's offices would be subject to similar standards but
with a screened outdoor storage/display area for products,materials,or supplies up to forty-five (45)
percent of the gross floor area of the principal building.
Table 1: Rosemount Market Square Block Analysis
Map ID# Name Use Site
1 Holiday Station Store Non-Conforming Conforming
2 Valvoline Instant Oil Change Non-Conforming Non-Conforming—Lot Size
3 Burger King Conforming Non-Conforming-Ped.Access
4 Rosemount Market Square Conforming Conforming
5 Hong Kong Bistro Conforming Non-Conforming—Parking Lot,
Screening
6 McDonald's Conforming Conforming
7 Dairy Queen Conforming Conforming
8 Taco John's Conforming Conforming
9 Chippendale Center Conforming Conforming
Implementation
The strategy for Rosemount Market Square should maintain the current diverse mix of high quality
retail,professional service, and restaurant uses while balancing the reinvestment needs of existing
non-conforming auto-oriented use. This strategy could include:
• Maintaining the existing CC—Community Commercial land use designation and C-4,
General Commercial classification for the majority of the block.
• Consider zoning changes targeted to non-conforming auto related uses.
• Address non-conforming sites through business investments,code enforcement,and
redevelopment.
BLOCK ANALYSIS: SOUTH ROSE BLOCK
Block Overview
The South Rose block is bounded by 151"Street West to the north, Chippendale Avenue to the
west and Carrousel Way to the east and south. It includes properties 15-24.
Development Concept
The South Rose block includes two separate plats with individual sites developed over nearly 30 years.
The northern three-fifths of the block were platted as part of Rose Park Second Addition in 1982 and
contain the Leaps and Bounds Child Care (1979),Detlefson Office Building(1984),State Farm(1985),
Winter's Pediatric Dentistry (1994), and the Dance Connection (2003). The southern two-fifths of the
9
"T,
block were platted as part of Rose Park Third Addition in 1991 and
contain the Rose Park Mechanical building(1984),a multi-tenant ;
commercial building(2000),the Rapp Chiropractic/American Family
building Chroust Family Dentistry and two
undeveloped lots.
Key Elements -"
This block is guided CC-Community Commercial and zoned C-4,
General Commercial. Located one block south and behind the
Rosemount Market Square Mall,this block has efficient access via
151"Street West and Chippendale and Canada Avenues but with
significantly less visibility. As a result,this block contains almost
exclusively destination-oriented personal and professional service
uses. Over the years,different types of retail uses have attempted to
locate here unsuccessfully. Figure 7 South Rose Block
Table 2: Chippendale/Carrousel Way Block Analysis
Map ID# Name Use Site
Non-Conforming—Building
15 State Farm Conforming Materials,Ped Access,Parking Lot,
Screening
16 Leaps&Bounds Child Care Conforming Conforming
17 Winters Pediatric Dentistry Conforming Conforming
18 Detlefson Office Conforming Conforming
19 Dance Connection/ATA Conforming Non-Conforming—Ped.Access
20 Rapp Chiropractic/Am.Family Conforming Conforming
21 Rose Park Mechanical Bldg. Conforming Conforming
22 Chroust Family Dentistry Conforming Conforming
23 3 Guys Sewing Conforming Conforming
24 Vacant N/A N/A
25 Vacant N/A N/A
An examination of the properties on this block finds two locations with non-conforming site issues.
The State Farm site fails to meet the building materials,pedestrian access,parking lot,and screening
standards. By comparison,the Dance Connection/ATA building, constructed in 2003,meets nearly
all the existing site and building standards but fails to meet the current pedestrian access requirements.
In this case,rezoning to C-3 would do little to address existing non-conformities because there are no
non-conforming uses and the applicable standards for the non-conforming site issues are the same for
both the C-3 and C-4 districts. However,rezoning could potentially open up the Rose South block to
10
other regional/destination uses (contractors or specialty retail) to complement the existing destination-
oriented personal and professional services. Any strategy should be carefully designed to include
appropriate screening standards to limit potential impacts on surrounding uses.
Implementation
Strategies for the South Rose block should address how to encourage a mixture of destination-
oriented personal,professional,and retail use as well as reinvestment by existing businesses to
eliminate non-conforming site issues.
• Maintain the existing CC—Community Commercial land use designation and C-4,General
Commercial classification for the majority of the block.
• Address non-conforming sites through business investments,code enforcement,and
redevelopment.
BLOCK ANALYSIS: FORMER CARLSON SITE/BUS GARAGE BLOCK
Block Overview
The Former Carlson Site/Bus Garage block is bounded by :W
County Road 42 to the north,Highway 3 to the south and east,
and Canada Avenue to the west. It includes properties 10—14.
Development Concept _
Properties in the Former Carlson Site/Bus Garage block were
platted in 1979 as part of the South Rose Park Re-Plat. The first
development on this block occurred on the former Carlson
Tractor site in 1966. Subsequent development on this block
included the Independent School District 196 bus garage in 1984 »7
and the Vermillion State Bank in 1988. '
• The Carlson site contains a 6,000 square foot metal *a'
storage building,which is completely open along one side,
and a 20,472 square foot metal/masonry office and shop.
• The Bus Garage site includes an 18,547 square foot office
and shop masonry building with a 2,300 square foot ;
canopy over fuel pumps constructed in 1984.
Figure 8 Former Carlson Site/Bus Garage Block
• The bank site contains a 4,128 square foot brick masonry
building with a drive-thru constructed in 1988.
Traffic count data shows 17,400 daily trips along County Road 42 with just over one-half that number
of trips (8,900) along Highway 3. Traffic along Canada Avenue varies depending on location with
5,500 trips north of 151"Street West and 3,400 trips south of 15155 Street West.
The Former Carlson Tractor block has high visibility as a result of its location at the intersection of
County Road 42 (a Principal Arterial) and Highway 3 (a Minor Arterial). Despite the site's visibility,
access is relatively limited,coming from uncontrolled access points along Canada Avenue and
Highway 3.
11
Key Elements
This block is guided CC—General Commercial and zoned C-4,General Commercial. The
predominant use of the former Carlson site is outdoor storage of construction machinery and
materials on an unimproved surface. The site has non-conformities with respect to outdoor storage,
building materials,lighting,parking lot design, screening,and pedestrian access. Similarly,the
dominant use of the Bus Garage site is outdoor storage of vehicles but on an improved asphalt
surface. This site is non-conforming with respect to outdoor storage,lighting,parking lot design,
screening,and pedestrian access. The Vermillion State Bank is a permitted use but non-conforming
with regard to minimum lot size.
In this case,rezoning to C-3 would not address the type and scale of non-conformities. Changing to
C-3 would allow outdoor storage of products,materials,or supplies but would limit that area to forty-
five (45) percent of the gross floor area of the principal building. Currently,outdoor storage is 8.6
times the size of the principal building on the Carlson site and 18.9 times the size of the principal
building on the bus garage site. And this change would not address the remaining non-conforming
site issue because the applicable standards are the same for both zoning districts.
Table 3: Carlson/Bus Gara a Block Analysis
Map ID# Name Use Site Size
10 Vermillion State Bank Conforming Non-Conforming—Lot Size 0.17
Acres
Non-Conforming—outdoor
11 ISD #196 Non-Conforming storage,lighting,parking lot 1.99
design,screening,and Acres
pedestrian access.
12 Vermillion State Bank Conforming Conforming 0.61
Acres
Non-Conforming—Building
Former Carlson 5.8
13 Tractor Non-Conforming Materials,Lighting,Ped. Acres
Access
Non-Conforming—outdoor
14 ISD #196 Non-Conforming storage,lighting,parking lot 6.5
design,screening,and Acres
pedestrian access.
Future redevelopment would likely require combining or subdividing existing property,resulting in
access changes and/or right-of-way dedication. Dakota County plans to expand County Road 42 to
six lanes when conditions warrant,with the County seeking 100 feet on both sides of right-of-way
from the existing center point of County Road 42. In addition,the Minnesota Department of
Transportation would likely seek to remove and/or consolidate accesses along Highway 3.
For discussion purposes,staff prepared a redevelopment concept plan for the Former Carlson
Tractor/Bus Garage block. This concept plan is based on the footprint for the Rosemount Cub
Foods and attached strip mall as well as the Holiday Inn Express and Green Mill restaurant located
near Interstate 35E and Cliff Road in Eagan. All totaled,this concept plan includes nearly 83,000
square feet of retail,73,000 square feet of hotel (120 rooms, fitness center,pool,and meeting rooms)
and 7,500 square feet of restaurant space. Some general conclusions for the Former Carlson
12
Tractor/Bus Garage block:
1. Two properties could mean relatively easy site assembly.
2. Relocating existing businesses could be challenging.
3. Relatively large commercial redevelopment site.
4. Site's good visibility is both a strength and weakness.
5. Decent existing access.
6. Market could likely support C-4 uses at this location.
Implementation
The size,location, and underutilization of the properties on the Former Carlson Tractor/Bus Garage
block make it a prime candidate for redevelopment. Together the Carlson and Bus Garage sites
amount to over 14 acres or nearly 1 '/z times the size of the Rosemount Cub Foods block (9.6 acres).
• Maintain the existing CC—Community Commercial land use designation and C-4,General
Commercial classification.
• Work with Independent School District 196 to relocate the existing bus garage.
• Encourage individual property owners to market the entire block.
• Encourage redevelopments that expand the entertainment opportunities within the district.
• Address non-conformities sites through business investments, code enforcement, and
redevelopment.
BLOCK ANALYSIS: RICK'S AUTO/BOWLING ALLEY BLOCK
Block Overview �
Rick's Auto/Bowling Alley (properties 34& 35) blocks. ^�
V-
Development Concept
The Rick's Auto and Bowling Alley sites were developed in 1961
and,like the Carlson site,pre-date official creation of the City and y,
its zoning regulations. The Rick's Auto site has two accesses on .;
Highway 3 and contains three metal buildings totaling 20,337
square feet with outdoor storage on an unimproved (dirt) surface.'I* °
The vacant bowling alley site has one access on Highway 3 and ,ti
4, s
contains a nearly 23,000 square foot masonry building. Sloping
topography on Rick's Auto/Bowling Alley block results in
relatively good access and visibility on the north end (Rick's Auto) ..
with more limited access and visibility conditions at the south end .3'
(bowling alley). ,
Figure 9 Rick Auto/Bowling Alley Block
Key Elements
This block is guided CC—Community Commercial and zoned C-4, General Commercial. The block
includes Rick's Auto and the vacant City Limits bowling alley. The Rick's site is non-conforming with
regard to building materials,outdoor storage,parking lot, screening,and pedestrian access. The
Bowling alley site is non-conforming with regard to building materials,building facrade breaks,parking
lot,and screening. In this case,rezoning to C-3 would do little to address existing non-conformities.
13
While changing to C-3 would allow the auto repair use,it would not address the amount of outdoor
storage or the remaining non-conforming site issues for either location.
Table 4: Rick's Auto/Bowlin&r eV Block Analysis
Map ID# Name Use Site Size
Non-Conforming—Materials, 3.4
33 Rick's Auto Non-Conforming Outdoor Storage,Parking Lol Acres
Screening,Ped.Access
Non-Conforming Materials
34 Ale Limits Bowling Conforming Building Facade Breaks, Ace s
y Parking Lot,Screening
While the vacant bowling alley and underutilization of the Rick's site create favorable redevelopment
conditions,limited access,visibility and size hinder the block's redevelopment potential. The limited
size and triangular shape of both properties likely mean the highest and best use of the site would be
as a single property with the option for multiple users or building pads. In the same way,the narrow
depth and tapered corners likely rule out re-guiding the site to manufacturing use with rail access.
Some general conclusions for the Rick Auto/Bowling Alley Block:
1. Two properties could mean relatively easy site assembly.
2. Relocating existing businesses could be challenging.
3. Site's redevelopment potential is limited by size,access,and visibility.
4. Redevelopment market is likely destination commercial or C-3 uses with outdoor storage.
Future redevelopment of this area includes combining or subdividing of property would likely also
include access changes and/or right-of-way dedication. The Minnesota Department of Transportation
would likely seek to remove and/or consolidate accesses along Highway 3.
Implementation
Strategies for the Rick's Auto/Bowling Alley block should address how to promote reinvestment by
existing businesses to eliminate non-conformities while encouraging redevelopment appropriate for
the site and needs of the community.
• Amend the block's future land use designation to CR—Regional Commercial and zoning to
C-3,Highway Commercial.
• Encourage individual property owners to market the entire block.
• Address non-conforming sites through business investments, code enforcement,and
redevelopment.
14
BLOCK ANALYSIS: MOVIE THEATER BLOCK
Block Overview
The Movie Theater block is bounded by 15151 Street West to the
north, 153d Street West to the south,Canada Avenue and
highway 3 to the east,and Chippendale Avenue to the west. It
includes properties 26-32.
Development Concept } �,
The Rosemount Theatre block was established as part of three
different subdivisions and developed over several years. The l
Berg Retail Center,vacant Lot 27,Crown Rentals,Spa Carwash,
and Access Specialties International sites were platted in 1979 as
part of the South Rose Park Addition Replat. Development of
these sites began with the Berg Retail Center in 1979 followed by
Access Specialties International in 1983, the Spa Carwash in
1988,and Crown Rental in 1998.The Marcus Theatre property s
was part of the Carrousel Plaza plat in 1993 and was constructed
the following year. And the Independent School District 196 r
offices property was part of the Carrousel Office Center Plat in Figure 10 Movie Theater Block
2001 but the building was not constructed until 2006.
There is a wide range of traffic activity around and through this block. The highest traffic levels are
along the east sides with 8,900 daily trips along Highway 3. While there is substantial traffic along
Highway 3, topography,site lines,and access limitations lessen its impact,both positively and
negatively. More moderate traffic levels exist along 1515`Street West(6,600 daily trips),Chippendale
Avenue (5,100 daily trips),and Canada Avenue (3,400 daily trips). These collector and local streets
provide direct access and good visibility to properties along the perimeter of this block. The lowest
traffic levels for this area are along Carrousel Way(600 daily counts),which serves the theatre site and
the internal properties of this block. It should be noted that this count was measured mid-block.
Counts along Carrousel Way west of the Marcus Theatre are likely higher.
Key Elements.
Most of the Theater block is guided CC -Community Commercial with only the Independent School
District building guided as BP—Business Park. Similarly, the entire block is zoned C-4,General
Commercial with the exception of the ISD building which is zoned BP—Business Park. It contains a
mixture of retail, office,entertainment,and service uses. Non-conformities are focused on the three
older sites,with the three newest sites conforming to the City's existing zoning regulations (see
attached maps and table below).
The Berg Retail Center contains five different businesses (Berg Construction Services,Min-Kota
Building Systems,Carquest Auto Parts,Lighthouse Motor Sports &Marine,and Pilgrims Promotions)
focused on vehicle sales and service and construction office activities. It is non-conforming with
regards to use,building materials,and outdoor storage. The Berg Retail Center is in common
ownership with the vacant Property 27 to the west,which is used for associated outdoor storage.
15
The two other sites with non-conformities are the Spa Carwash and Access Specialties International.
The Spa Carwash is non-conforming with respect to use,setbacks,and pedestrian access. Access
Specialties International is non-conforming as to use (light assembly and warehousing),building
materials,pedestrian access,parking lot,and screening.
Table 5: Rosemount Theatre Block Analysis
Map ID# Name Use Site Size
26 Berg Retail Center Non-Conforming Non-Conforming: Building 2.13 Acres
Materials,Outdoor Storage
27 Vacant Land Vacant Land Vacant Land 1.5 Acres
28 Crown Rental Conforming Conforming 0.98 Acres
29 The Spa Carwash Non-Conforming Non-Conforming: Setbacks, 1 Acre
Pedestrian Access
Non-Conforming: Building
30 Access Specialties Intl. Non-Conforming Materials,Pedestrian Access, 1.27 Acres
Parking Lot,Screening
31 Rosemount Theatre Conforming Conforming 8.69 Acres
32 ISD 196 Offices Conforming Conforming 2.1 Acres
The three conforming sites (properties 28,31,and 32) also have development challenges. The Marcus
Theatre has long sought additional signage and access along Highway 3. In the past the Minnesota
Department of Transportation has denied access along Highway 3 but the Theatre did reach an
agreement for shared parking and signage with the ISD office building to the west. Crown Rental has
sought additional outdoor storage for its site. However,as the committee has discussed for other
blocks,the C-4,General Commercial zoning district does not allow outdoor storage.
In this case,rezoning to C-3 would not fully address the type and scale of non-conformities present
on the Theatre Block. Rezoning to C-3 would allow auto oriented uses through a conditional use
permit. However,it would not address the non-conforming site challenges such as outdoor storage,
building materials, and setbacks or the non-conforming use issues (light assembly and warehouse) at
Access Specialties International. C-3 allows outdoor storage of products,materials,or supplies but
limits that area to forty-five (45) percent of the gross floor area of the principal building. Existing
outdoor storage on this block exceeds that standard.
While half the uses on the Movie Theatre Block are non-conforming,wholesale scale redevelopment
of this area seems unlikely. Unlike conditions on the Former Carlson Tractor/Bus Garage or Rick's
Auto/Bowling Alley blocks,existing conditions on these sites do not appear to fall to a level
necessitating clearing and reconstruction. The area's redevelopment potential is further limited by
parcel size,access,and visibility.
Similar to conditions on the South Rose Park block to the west,the most challenging sites on the
Rosemount Theatre Block are the older retail uses that need outdoor storage and are located on
properties with limited visibility. However,both blocks also contain newer destination service,office,
and entertainment uses that appear better suited for the neighborhood's design,its location within the
community,and market conditions.
16
Implementation
Strategies for the Movie Theater block should encourage owners of the most challenging properties
(Lots 26-30) to address existing site non-conformities while promoting recruitment and retention of
businesses better suited for the market and existing conditions in this area. According the market
study this could include a focus on family entertainment uses.
• Maintain the existing land use and zoning designations
• Encourage individual property owners to market their properties together.
• Encourage redevelopments that expand the entertainment opportunities within the district.
• Address non-conforming sites through business investments,code enforcement,and
redevelopment.
BLOCK ANALYSIS: CSAH 46 NORTHWEST BLOCK
Block Overview
The CSAH 46 Northwest block is bounded by the Canadian
Pacific Railway to the north and west,County Road 46 to the 'rl'
south,and Highway 3 to the east. The area includes properties ►
37—42. By and large, the area includes a mix of
underdeveloped and vacant properties. Recent �t
Comprehensive Plan changes re-guided the entire area as either
Regional or Community Commercial but individual sites
continue to have a range of zoning classifications (PI—Public •"
and Institutional,C-3 -Highway Commercial,BP—Business
Park, or GI—General Industrial). Non-conformities are ;
focused on the Murgic's and Sem Stream sites,where future
redevelopment remains uncertain.
Development Concept Figure 11 CS.M1 46 Northxccst 11 lock
Generally,the existing land uses in this area include vacant
land,the former Rosemount Village landfill, automobile repair, and a propane storage and
distribution site. In 2006, the City amended the Comprehensive Plan to re-guide this area for
commercial development with the understanding that rezoning to a particular commercial zoning
classification would occur with a specific development proposal. As part of that process, the
Planning Commission and City Council stated a preference for the area to serve as a potential
location for existing businesses relocated from the downtown and could include automobile and
repair shop related uses typical of the C-3,Highway Commercial district. The 2008 Comprehensive
Plan Update refined the land use designations in the area to guide the land owned by the City as RC
—Regional Commercial with the balance guided as CC—Community Commercial.
In this area,the highest traffic counts run east/west along County Road 46 with 13,100 trips per day.
Dakota County projects traffic along County Road 46 will increase to 36,000 trips per day by 2030.
Traffic volumes are estimated at 8,900 trips per day along Highway 3 and 500 trips per day along
Canada Circle.
17
Key Elements
This block contains a mixture of existing properties with non-conformities and vacant land (see
attached maps). Properties 37,39 (Car Nav Five),and 40 (Sem Stream) are all guided Community
Commercial but zoned General Industrial. Property 38 (Murgic's Automotive) is guided Community
Commercial and zoned C-3,Highway Commercial. Properties 41,42,and 43 (Former Rosemount
Village Landfill) are guided Regional Commercial but zoned either BP—Business Park or PI—Public
and Institutional. As a result,the Murgic's site has non-conforming site issues (building materials,
setbacks,pedestrian access) while Sem Stream has both non-conforming use and non-conforming site
(setbacks,building less than 10 percent) challenges.
Table 6:Murgic's Automotive and Dovestone/Pahl Blocks Analysis
Map ID# Name Use Site Size
35 Pahl Property Conforming- N/A 32 Acres
Vacant/Farm Land
36 Dovestone Property Conforming- N/A 21 Acres
Vacant/Farm Land
37 Car Nav Five (East) Conforming- N/A 7 Acres
Vacant/Farm Land
Conformin Non-Conforming: Building
38 Murgic's Automotive Materials,Setbacks, 3.25 Acre
Auto Repair Pedestrian Access
39 Car Nav Five (West) Conforming- N/A 6.3 Acres
Vacant/Farm Land
Non-Conforming—
Combustible Non-Conforming—Setback
40 Sem Stream Products Building Less than 10 15.3 Acres
Distribution and Percent of Lot
Storage
41 Former Rosemount Conforming N/A 3.6 Acres
Village Landfill
Former Rosemount
42 Village Landfill Conforming N/A 2.5 Acres
Former Rosemount
43 Village Landfill Conforming N/A 1.5 Acres
This block contains both new development and redevelopment opportunities. New development
could occur on the 13 acre vacant Car Nav Five properties. These parcels are currently zoned GI—
General Industrial but guided for Community Commercial. Preliminary analysis indicates these
parcels could accommodate 60,000 to 70,000 square feet of buildings,although actual performance
is likely somewhat lower given the needs for parking,ponding, setbacks,and outdoor storage.
Existing access to the site comes from Canada Circle along the west (back) side of the property.
Redevelopment could occur on the Murgic's,Sem Stream,or former Rosemount Village landfill
sites. The City completed an environmental assessment and preliminary site development plan for
the former landfill site in 2007. The preliminary site development plan included five lots ranging in
size from 1.05 to 2.43 acres with access from Canada Circle. The area is currently zoned BP—
Business Park and PI—Public and Institutional but guided Regional Commercial. The Regional
18
Commercial land use designation contrasts with the current zoning classifications but generally
matches up with the City Council's preferences from 2007. Based on the zoning standard requiring
a minimum ten (10) percent building coverage per lot,it's estimated this area could accommodate at
least 33,000 square feet of commercial/industrial space. It should be noted that the City still
operates its Public Works yard on this property and any redevelopment would necessitate relocation
of that facility.
Redevelopment of the Sem Stream site remains uncertain. The site was originally developed in 1963
and operates as a storage and distribution center for bulk propane gas. The property has
infrastructure including above-ground storage tanks,pipe loading racks,a rail spur,and pipeline
along County Road 46. The rail spur crosses the old Highway 3 and existing Canada Circle corridors
and extends almost to the existing Highway 3 right-of-way. The 2007 comprehensive plan
amendment made the site's land use non-conforming and was not supported by the landowner.
However, the site continues to operate under the existing condition and can be maintained,repaired,
or replaced,but not expanded.
Like the Sem Stream site,redevelopment of the Murgic's site is uncertain. As noted above,the
existing automobile repair is a conforming use but the site has several non-conforming issues. The
use is also consistent with the City's Council 2007 preferences. During the September open house
the property owner expressed a desire to remain in this location long-term and a willingness to work
with the City on non-conforming issues. However, the owner also voiced concerns with the
investment necessary for future expansion to meet current zoning standards.
Implementation
Strategies for the CSAH 46 Northwest block should reinforce the City Council's 2007 preferences.
Despite the projected market demand and traffic growth along County Road 46,the market study
also finds this block has some of the lowest land and building values in the corridor and predicts
redevelopment to be approximately ten years away.
• Maintain the RC—Regional Commercial land use designations for Lots 41,42,and 43.
• Amend the future land use designation for Lots 37,38,39,and 40 from CC—Community
Commercial to RC—Regional Commercial.
• This block may be appropriate for relocating existing non-conforming use businesses from
either downtown or other parts of the district.
• Redevelopment may contain auto related uses and limited amounts of outdoor storage
provided there is appropriate screening and buffer of the residential neighborhood west of
the railroad.
• Address non-conforming sites through business investments,code enforcement,and
redevelopment.
BLOCK ANALYSIS: CSAH 46 NORTHEAST BLOCK
Block Overview
The CSAH 46 Northeast block is bounded by the Rosemount Business Park to the north,County
Road 46 to the south,U Pull R Parts to the east,and Highway 3 to the west. The area includes
properties 35 and 36.
19
Development Concept
The CSAH 46 Northeast block consists of vacant property awaiting development. In 2006, the City
amended the Comprehensive Plan to re-guide this area for commercial development with the
understanding that rezoning to a particular commercial zoning classification would occur with a
specific development proposal. As part of that process,the Planning Commission and City Council
stated a preference for the area to contain uses typically associated with the C-4,General
Commercial district.
Traffic count data for the South Urban Gateway are illustrated
on a map provided to committee members during the December -
meeting. In this area,the highest traffic counts run east/west
along County Road 46 with 13,100 trips per day. Dakota
County projects traffic along County Road 46 will increase to
36,000 trips per day by 2030. Traffic volumes are estimated at
8,900 trips per day along Highway 3 and 500 trips per day along
Canada Circle.
Key Elements 3
The CSAH 46 Northeast block has a mix of land use and zoning fro;
designations with vacant properties awaiting future
development. The Dovestone property (36) is zoned GI—
General Industrial and the Pahl property (35)is zoned BP— �e
Business Park,but both properties are guided Community ICI
Commercial. Both properties are vacant and therefore have no
non-conforming issues. -°
_ M*W A.
Figure 12 CSAH 46 Northeast Block
The South Urban Gateway study reviewed several development
concept plans for this area. This plan includes two sites on either side of the future extension of
Boulder Trail. Ultimately,the committee endorsed a concept plan that included approximately
150,000 square feet of retail in two buildings on the Dovestone property. On the Pahl property the
concept plan included 136,000 square feet of retail in three buildings with another 50,000 square feet
of office warehouse/showroom.
Implementation
Strategies for the CSAH 46 Northeast block should reinforce the City Council's 2007 preferences.
Despite the projected market demand and traffic growth along County Road 46,the market study
also finds this block has some of the lowest land and building values in the corridor and predicts
redevelopment to be approximately ten years away.
• Maintain the existing CC—Community Commercial land use designation.
• Future development should be consistent with the City Council's 2007 preferences and work
to transition land uses between commercial uses along TH 3 and existing industrial uses to
the east.
20
IMPLEMENTATION
• Comprehensive Plan Amendment for the Rick's Auto block and the south half of the CSAH
46 Northwest block.
• Zoning Ordinance amendment to remove Gas Stations and Immediate Service Automotive
Maintenance establishments from the C-3 Zoning District.
• Work with Independent School District 196 to relocate the existing bus garage.
• Encourage individual property owners to market the entire Carlson and Rick's Auto blocks.
• Encourage individual non-conforming use property owners within the Movie Theater block
to market their properties together.
• Encourage redevelopments that expand the entertainment opportunities within the north
half of the district.
• The CSAH 46 Northwest block may be appropriate for relocating existing non-conforming
use businesses from either downtown or other parts of the district.
• Redevelopment within the CSAH 46 Northwest may contain auto related uses and limited
amounts of outdoor storage provided there is appropriate screening and buffer of the
residential neighborhood west of the railroad.
• Development of the CSAH 46 Northeast block should focus on retail and office business
with a regional draw while considering the need to transition between the new commercial
development and the industrial and business park uses to the east.
• Address non-conforming sites through business investments,code enforcement,and
redevelopment.
Recommended Land Uses
Based on the block by block review by the SUGAR
Committee,two amendments are recommended to
the Comprehensive Plan. First,the Rick's Auto
block (Lots 34 and 35) is recommended to be s
changed from CC: Community Commercial to RG: u
Regional Commercial. Second,the south half of
the Northwest CSAH 46 block(Lots 37,38,39,
and 40) is recommended to be changed from CC- =
Community Commercial to RG: Regional
Commercial. All other land uses are recommended
to stay as they were determined in the 2030
Comprehensive Plan. The rational for these two
recommendations are described greater detail in
their Block Analyses above.
0
The increase in RC: Regional Commercial will allow --
a greater variety of business uses in the South
South Urban Gateway A-!_y.i.for Neinveslmenl �
Gateway,particularly uses that would require small SRO MOUI.TT Recommended land Use 1
amounts of outdoor storage or flex uses that
require some warehousing or manufacturing space Figure 19 Proposed Land Use Changes
21
adjacent to their retail or office space. The regional commercial areas are located on the blocks
adjacent to the Union Pacific railroad line,but development site plan review will need to consider
the appropriate screening or buffering from land uses on the far side of the railroad.
There is no recommendation to change the existing zoning on the properties within the South
Gateway. Appropriate zonings that are complementary to the designated land uses will be
considered when vacant properties are developed or when improved sites are redeveloped.
22
xfleld
q Rcscarcli Inc.
May 31, 2014
Ms. Kim Lindquist
Director of Community Development
City of Rosemount
2875145 th Street West
Rosemount, MN 55068
Dear Ms. Lindquist:
Attached is the analysis titled, "A Market Potential Analysis for the South Urban Gateway
Corridor in Rosemount, Minnesota". The market analysis focuses on the amount of develop-
ment supportable in the South Urban Gateway Corridor with attention given to a potential mix
of retail categories based on the demographic characteristics,growth trends in the area, and
the existing retail supply in Rosemount and the surrounding area.
Maxfield Research, Inc. estimates demand for retail and other uses on the property based on
projected growth for the Rosemount Trade Area, changing demographic patterns, and project-
ed market conditions for commercial, residential and other real estate sectors. Recommenda-
tions regarding the amount of square footage supportable over various periods of time are
provided along with the calculations of demand through 2025 and to 2035.
Detailed findings and recommendations are found in the Conclusions and Recommendations
section at the end of the report.
Please contact us if you have questions or require additional information.
Sincerely,
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
V 7
Mary Bujold
President
Attachment
612-338-0012(fax)612-904-7979
1221 Nicollet Mall,suite 218,Minneapolis,MN 55403
www.maxfieldresearch.com
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF STUDY........................................................................................ 1
CORRIDOR LOCATION ASSESSMENT................................................................................... 2
Introduction ................ ................................................................................................ 2
RegionalLocation............................................................................................................ 2
Rosemount Characteristics ............................................................................................. 4
Corridor Location and Characteristics............................................................................. 10
Adjacent and Surrounding Land Uses............................................................................. 10
Accessand Visibility........................................................................................................ 11
Appropriateness of the South Urban Gateway Corridor for Commercial Uses.............. 13
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS................................................................................................... 14
Introduction .................................................................................................................... 14
MarketArea Definition ................................................................................................... 14
Populationand Household Growth Trends.................................................................... 16
Population Age Distribution............................................................................................ 18
Household Incomes....................................................................... ......... 20
.........................
EmploymentForecast..................................................................................................... 22
Covered Employment by Industry.................................................................................. 23
RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS.................................................................................................. 25
Introduction ......................................................... . ...................................................... 25
Consumer Expenditure Patterns..................................................................................... 25
Retail Demand Potential and Leakage............................................................................ 29
Types of Retail Goods and Customer Shopping Patterns............................................... 31
Retail Mix in Rosemount................................................................................................. 32
Local Retail Market Conditions....................................................................................... 33
Retail Development Potential......................................................................................... 35
OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT............................................................................................ 37
Introduction .................................................................................................................... 37
Business Establishment Growth...................................................................................... 37
Local Office Market Conditions....................................................................................... 39
Office Demand Projections.......................................................................... ............... 41
INDUSTRIAL MARKET ASSESSMENT.............................................................................. 43
Introduction .................................................................................................................... 43
Local Industrial Market Conditions................................................................................. 43
Industrial Demand Potential........................................................................................... 45
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
(continued)
Page
SOUTH URBAN GATEWAY CORRIDOR........................................................................... 46
Introduction .................................................................................................................... 46
LandValues..................................................................................................................... 46
BuildingValues................................................................................................................ 47
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS........................................................................ 49
Introduction .................................................................................................................... 49
Conclusions and Recommendations............................................................................... 49
Estimated Demand for Space-South Urban Gateway Corridor...................................... 51
Suggested Redevelopment Timeframes......................................................................... 52
FinancialTools................................................................................................................. 54
KeyTakeaways................................................................................................................ 54
LIST OF TABLES
Table Number and Title Page
1. Traffic Volume Trends,South Urban Gateway Corridor, 2007, 2012, & 2030 ........... 11
2. 2010 Traffic Volumes, Surrounding Commercial Areas.............................................. 12
3. Households by Median Household Income, Dakota County, 2013 ............................ 21
4. Households by Median Household Income, Dakota County, 2018 ............................ 22
5. Employment Growth Trends, South Urban Gateway Corridor Trade Area, 2000-2030 23
6. Covered Employment by Industry, Rosemount and Dakota County. ........................ 24
7. Estimated Household Expenditures by Selected Product Types,South Urban Gateway
Corridor Market Area, 2014....................................................................................... 26
8. Retail Demand Potential and Leakage, City of Rosemount, 2014 .............................. 30
9. Demand for Retail Space, South Urban Gateway Corridor, 2014 to 2025.................. 35
10. Projected Demand for Office Space, South Urban Gateway Corridor, 2014 to 2035. 42
11. Projected Demand for Industrial-South Urban Gateway Corridor, 2014 to 2035...... 45
12. Sample Land Values by Use Type, Dakota County...................................................... 46
13. Estimated Demand for Space-South Urban Gateway Corridor, 2015-2035............... 51
14. Estimated Demand for Space-City of Rosemount, 2015-2035 ................................... 52
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
LIST OF CHARTS
Chart Number and Title Page
1. Population Growth Trends, South Urban Gateway Corridor, 2000-2030....................... 17
2. Household Growth Trends,South Urban Gateway Corridor, 2000-2030....................... 18
3. Age Distribution of the Population, City of Rosemount, 2000-2030............................... 18
4. Population Growth, 2000-2030, City of Rosemount and Dakota County ...................... 19
5. 2013 Covered Employment: %of Total .......................................................................... 24
6. Average Annual Household Expenditures and Median Household Income, 2014......... 28
7. Average Annual Household Expenditures by Category, 2014......................................... 28
8. Retail Surplus/Leakage Factor by Industry, 2014............................................................ 29
9. Rosemount Retail Mix-2014............................................................................................ 32
10. Multi-Tenant Retail Space,Total and Occupied-4Q13.................................................... 33
11. Retail Vacancy Rates,4Q13 ............................................................................................. 34
12. Average Retail Rent/Sq. Ft.-4Q13,....................I...............I.............................................1 34
13. Businesses that Primarily Occupy Office Space by Size of Business, 2011, Rosemount Zip
Code55068...................................................................................................................... 37
14. Employees Occupying Office Space by Business Size, Rosemount Zip Code, 55068...... 38
15. Businesses that Primarily Occupy Office Space by Size of Business 2012,South Urban
GatewayCorridor............................................................................................................. 39
16, Employees Occupying Office Space by Business Size,South Urban Gateway Corridor.. 39
17. Multi-Tenant Office Space,Total and Occupied,4Q13................................................... 40
18. Office Vacancy Rates,4Q13............................................................................................. 41
19. Average Office Rent/Sq. Ft., 4Q13................................................................................... 41
20. Industrial Space,Total and Occupied,4Q13.................................................................... 43
21. Industrial Vacancy Rates-4Q13........................................................................................ 44
22. Low/High Industrial Rent/Sq. Ft., 4Q13...............I.............. .. 44
...........................................
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
LIST OF MAPS
Map Number and Title Page
1. Regional Location............................................................................................................. 3
2. South Urban Gateway Corridor....................................................................................... 5
3. South Urban Gateway Corridor Drive-Times................................................................... 6
4. South Urban Gateway Corridor, Conforming/Non-Conforming Uses, 2014 .................. 8
5. South Urban Gateway Corridor, Future Land Use, 2030................................................. 9
6. South Urban Gateway Corridor Site ................................................................................ 10
7. South Urban Gateway Corridor Primary Market Area .................................................... 15
8. South Urban Gateway Corridor Commercial Draw Area................................................. 16
9. South Urban Gateway Land Values per Square Foot ...................................................... 47
10. South Urban Gateway Building Values per Square Foot................................................. 48
11. South Urban Gateway Analysis Suggested Timeframes for Redevelopment.................. 53
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF STUDY
Purpose and Scope of Study
Maxfield Research Inc. was engaged by the City of Rosemount to complete a market potential
analysis to evaluate existing market conditions in the Corridor and to determine, based on a
plan for redevelopment, the amount of commercial, residential and industrial square footage
supportable in the Corridor over various periods of time. The South Urban Gateway Corridor is
located on either side(east-west) of State Highway 3 (South Robert Trail) between County Road
42 (150th Street) and County Road 46 (160th Street) in Rosemount, Minnesota.
The South Urban Gateway Corridor has long been a core commercial and industrial area in the
City. While Rosemount has an historic Downtown which lays to the north of the South Urban
Gateway Corridor, higher traffic counts along County Road 42 and South Robert Trail made the
South Urban Gateway Corridor area an attractive location for uses that generally require
convenient access and high visibility. Over time, as other commercial nodes to the west of this
area have been developed and increased in size,the South Urban Gateway Corridor district has
experienced less development intensity.
Our research includes an analysis of the existing supply of commercial and industrial uses in the
South Urban Gateway Corridor in addition to market conditions for retail, office, residential and
industrial development. The market analysis focuses on the amount of development supporta-
ble on the subject property with attention given to a potential mix of retail and office catego-
ries based on the demographic characteristics and growth trends in the area.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 1
CORRIDOR LOCATION ASSESSMENT
Introduction
This section of the report presents an analysis of the location and characteristics of the South
Urban Gateway Corridor in Rosemount, Minnesota discussing the regional location, the City of
Rosemount, and the property's general characteristics. Adjacent land uses, accessibility to and
visibility of the South Urban Gateway Corridor and its proximity to employment concentrations,
shopping and services are presented. Finally,this section discusses the appropriateness of the
Corridor for various uses including retail, office, industrial and multifamily development.
Regional Location
Rosemount had a 2010 population (Census) of 21,874 people and is located in northeastern
Dakota County in the southern half of the Twin Cities Metro Statistical Area,which encom-
passes 13 counties and includes about 3.0 million people (2010 Census). Dakota County is the
third most populous county in Minnesota, behind Hennepin County and Ramsey County. As of
2010, Dakota County had reached a population of 398,552 people. The map below shows the
location of the South Urban Gateway Corridor within the seven-county core of the Metro Area.
Non-urbanized portions of the region are shaded green.
The map shows that Rosemount is located in an area designated as"Developing" by the Metro-
politan Council,the regional planning agency serving the Twin Cities seven-county metropolitan
area. Much of the southeast Metro Area south of 1-494 is designated as a developing area,
including the City of Rosemount. Developing Communities focus on accommodating growth,
supporting centers along corridors, encouraging connected land use patterns for new develop-
ment and encouraging the development of communities where shopping,jobs and a variety of
housing choices coexist.
Although the South Urban Gateway has commercial and industrial uses that have been in
existence for a number of years, Rosemount as a community still has a substantial amount of
land remaining for development. As the community adds new households and jobs, the poten-
tial demand for additional commercial space will increase.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 2
CORRIDOR LOCATION ASSESSMENT
Map 1
Regional Location
Twiu Cities ll{cgn +nlifautArea . 'ajf �'A�
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180113111.`.ase refer to the Co nficeltensive Plsma Con+lwsile map or the Regimal Systems sumps for die most
tacent itlro maiiam 'fllese rna x+ure avuilutde at the N4et"iahtun Coturcil D tiw Censor(651)642-1140.
Geographic Plunning Areas Additional Infarnlntion
Urban Planning Arena Rural Planning Arens
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Nveloping Area I Rural Center Rcmtrca Arens
II
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Rural Residential
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 3
SITE LOCATION ANALYSIS
Rosemount Characteristics
The City of Rosemount covers approximately 35.21 square miles in northern Dakota County.
The City of Eagan (pop. 64,206) is located north of Rosemount and the City of Inver Grove
Heights(pop. 33,880)forms the eastern border. Rosemount is bounded by Apple Valley (pop.
49,084) and Empire Township (pop. 2,444) to the south.
Rosemount expanded rapidly in the 2000s,adding an average of 726 people per year for a
growth rate of 49.6%between 2000 and 2010. Over the next 20 years, Rosemount is projected
to nearly double in population, adding about 19,200 people, a growth rate of 87.8%to 2030. In
comparison,the Twin Cities Metro Area household base is projected to expand by only 25.6%
during this same period (2010-2030).
All of Rosemount is located within the Metropolitan Urban Service Area (MUSA)which is the
area in the Seven-County Metro Area where the Metropolitan Council ensures that regional
services are provided or planned. The City of Rosemount is approximately one-third developed.
Rosemount has a significant amount of land to its east which is currently undeveloped. As
growth pushes further to the west and south,we anticipate that development in the communi-
ty will fill in a logical progression.
Map 2 shows one,three and five-mile radii from the South Urban Gateway Corridor location.
Map 3 shows drive times from various locations to the South Urban Gateway Corridor. This
information is helpful in determining a draw area for retail and other commercial services in the
Corridor. As shown on the map, properties in the South Urban Gateway Corridor can be
reached within a 15-minute drive from much of the immediate surrounding area. This 15-
minute drive time reaches up into northern Eagan and as far south as the southern border of
Lakeville.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 4
SITE LOCATION ANALYSIS
Map 2
South Urban Gateway Corridor
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ivvi
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s BE+aontEtiS}t45� .., ss''Q Eitan _
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 5
SITE LOCATION ANALYSIS
Map 3
South Urban Gateway Corridor Drive Times
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 6
SITE LOCATION ANALYSIS
The South Urban Gateway Corridor is currently designated as predominantly commercial uses.
Agricultural land is expected to be rezoned in the future toward commercial or industrial use,
but most likely commercial uses. Commercial uses extend to the north into the Downtown.
The adjacent roadways,current traffic volumes and other characteristics continue to support
the South Urban Gateway Corridor as a primary commercial node in the community.
The majority of land in Rosemount is most likely to be developed over time with residential
uses, including a mix of single-family and medium and high-density multifamily. Although
single-family and owner-occupied multifamily construction was robust in the 2000s, Rosemount
also has its share of industrial,commercial and agricultural land uses.
The large amount of land owned by the University of Minnesota, UMore Park, is currently being
mined for sand and gravel. A plan to convert the property to a mix of uses with predominantly
residential (low, medium densities) has been identified. It is anticipated that development on
the property will begin sometime this decade and continue through 2030. The substantial
number of housing units that can be accommodate in Wore Park will enhance the Corridor's
ability to attract these households to retail, entertainment and service uses in the area.
The South Urban Gateway property is currently planned primarily for commercial uses with
some allowances made for industrial/business park and some high-density residential on the
west side of the property that would abut existing medium to high-density residential that
already exists. The intent with redevelopment would be to shift all parcels to land uses that
would conform to the City's Comprehensive Guide Plan, treating the South Urban Gateway
Corridor area as a major commercial node in the City.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 7
SITE LOCATION ANALYSIS
Map 4
South Urban Gateway Corridor,Zoning-Conforming/Non-Conforming Uses,2014
:gq .,,a y, i C Pra eqM IDR Comman Rhnw
14 9rN 91'vr ti 't_as1NSTW 1 fbRdayStatl¢nstma
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12 Vernntgai State Ormtk
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15 State Farm Ins. a
15 Wap'&90.0,15 family Oayave
tear' ...4r 11 Winters pediatnapantistry a
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5 20 Rapp CMnpatctic(Amedran Fam
p- 21 Rose park dtechaniral Bldg.
spNO 81w _ -o - 27 cMmut Family Dentilmy
23 1104y'Sealing
3 _ I 24 vacant Land 2
25 Vacant lot 4
.t Y 26 ate Rated Stnp Cant—S. L,
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27 Vacant Luna
29 Crown Rental r
.� 7act»s(w r 24 Tea Spa C.invasit
20 Access SpeslaRFes lnWmanan i
31 RacumountTFeatra �.
... _ 32 lid 196
31 Rick's Automattra Repair
34 City limits Bowling Allay 4,
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�, 37 Gilded Coml land
39 AturglcAutamaUva
W Goided Como land
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South Urban Gateway Analysis for Reinvestment
,$MSEtylOt..il V 1 Zoning I�l
MINNESOTA
*Conforming #Non-Conforming #Vacant
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 8
SITE LOCATION ANALYSIS
Map 5
South Urban Gateway Corridor, Future Land Use, 2030
I I
`'E �• �� Pro act Ma IDB Carnaion Namo i
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y 75 3talo rarm W,
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18 Dodelspn Otflq p
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a j / 2D Raytr<hlropraRiHtcmarican Fam
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29 Vanm tot
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pT 28 Crew.
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30 Arcass SpodalNNS lMamallon
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t. Rn� 33 Rick's Auto nwtiw Repair v..
3e Gtr emits Bowling Alloy
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i 36 Vacant Law
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South Urban Gateway Analysis for Reinvestment A
,*WSEMOUNT Land Use(2030) N
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MIN NE307A
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 9
II
SITE LOCATION ANALYSIS
Site Location and Characteristics
The subject property totals approximately 47.4 acres in the southern portion of Rosemount.
The south border of the Gateway Corridor is the south border of the City of Rosemount. The
Gateway Corridor is located between County Road 42 and County Road 46 on either side of
State Highway 3. The map below shows an outline of the South Urban Gateway Corridor and its
relationship to the immediate surrounding area.
Map 6
South Urban Gateway Corridor
as .�.
' Rid
a
d
Adjacent and Surrounding Land Uses
North: Commercial office and retail uses; access into Downtown Rosemount
East: Commercial and industrial uses,vacant land, institutional use.
South: Industrial uses and vacant agricultural land.
West: Multifamily for-sale and senior housing; commercial office and retail uses.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 10
SITE LOCATION ANALYSIS
Access and Visibility
Excellent access and visibility are vital to the success of retail and service businesses. Currently,
access to parcels in the South Urban Gateway Corridor can be obtained from several locations
off South Robert Trail and at selected access points off County Road 42. Due to the heavy
traffic volumes on County Road 42, access to parcels south of County Road 42 may be restricted
in the future as additional improvements are made to County Road 42 to move traffic along
more rapidly.
Improvements and upgrades made to County Road 46 have quickly siphoned traffic off of
County Road 42 to County Road 46 due to east-west travel now being more rapid along County
Road 46 between Highway 52/55, Cedar Avenue (Highway 77)and Interstate 35 than taking
County Road 42. While this has reduced traffic increases along County Road 42 recently, it has
also pulled some drive-by traffic off County Road 42 down to County Road 46, likely affecting
some convenience uses on the north side of the South Urban Gateway Corridor. Traffic counts
on County Road 46 are projected to rise over time to about 36,000 by 2030. Larger develop-
ment parcels that are under-utilized and/or vacant have the potential to attract larger commer-
cial retail uses. These larger sites sandwiched in between two major thoroughfares (County
Roads 42 and 46) should be promoted to larger users that could capture traffic from both of
these thoroughfares.
Table 1 displays the 2007 and 2012 estimated traffic volumes (measured in annual average
daily trips)and the 2030 projected traffic volumes for adjacent roads near the Gateway Corri-
dor.
TABLE 1
TRAFFIC VOLUME TRENDS
GATEWAY CORRIDOR
2007 2012 &2030
Annual Average Daily Traffic AADT
Est!mate Estimate Projected Change,2007-2012 [Change,2012-2030
2007 2011/2012 2030 No. Pct. No. Pct,
County Road 42
West of Highway 3 18,000 17,700 28,000 -300 -1.7% 10,300 58.2%
East of Highway 3 15,300 12,600 27,000 -2,700 -17.6% 14,400 114.3%
County Road 46
West of Highway 3 12,500 13,700 36,000 1,200 9.6% 22,300 162.8%
East of Highway 3 10,900 9,800 25,000 -1,100 -10.1% 15,200 155.1%
Highway 3
North of County Road 42 14,000 12,400 n/a -1,600 -11.4% --- ---
South of County Road 42 9,600 8,900 n/a -700 -7.3% -
AADT=Annual Average Daily Traffic
Sources: MnDOT;City of Rosemount;Dakota County;Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 11
SITE LOCATION ANALYSIS
Traffic counts show that there have been fluctuations in traffic volumes over the past five years
from 2007 through 2012. Traffic fluctuations can result from any number of factors including
detours, road construction, additional improvements to adjacent roadways,etc. It appears as
though there has been some traffic diversion away from Highway 3 and from County Road 42.
Some of this traffic has moved over to County Road 46 and other traffic may be finding alter-
nate routes to travel east-west or north-south. However,strong growth is projected in AADT
on the major roadways to 2030.
To provide some perspective on traffic volumes,Table 2 shows traffic volumes as of 2010 for
four other commercial intersections in the nearby area as well as four intersections where
lifestyle/open-air centers are located. Table 2 highlights that areas with higher traffic volumes
generally support a greater amount of commercial and retail uses.
The volumes shown on Tables 1 and 2 reflect average annual daily trips (AADT) and incorporate
the turning movements of vehicles at the intersection. The figures shown on the tables are
individual counts for each side of the intersection and do not necessarily account for separate
vehicles. A vehicle may cross the intersection or make a turn in a specific direction and may
cross the intersection more than one time in a day. The counts are not intended to be aggre-
gated but show the average level of traffic volume on a portion of the roadway.
TABLE 2
2010 TRAFFIC VOLUMES*
SURROUNDING COMMERCIAL AREAS
Side of Intersection
North East South West
Neighboring Commercial Nodes
Hwy 77 @ Hwy 13,Eagan 76,000 26,500 68,000 22,500
Hwy 52 @ 1-494,Inver Grove Heights 57,000 97,000 61,000 77,000
Hwy 52 @ Concord,Inver Grove Heights 48,000 10,000 45,500 1,550
Cedar Ave @ Co Rd 42,Apple Valley 46,500 35,500 36,000 28,000
Lifestyle Centers
1-94 @ Hemlock Ln,Maple Grove(Arbor Lakes) 32,000 119,000 18,900 108,000
1-494 @ Valley Creek Rd,Woodbury(Woodbury Village) 76,000 34,000 61,000 21,000
Hwy 10 @ Main St,Coon Rapids (Riverdale VIIlage) 67,000 31,000 32,000 77,000
1-35W @ Lexington Ave,Blaine(Village of Blaine) 22,600 42,000 17,300 52,000
*Annual Average Dail Traffic(AADT).
Sources: MnDOT•Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 12
SITE LOCATION ANALYSIS
Appropriateness of the South Urban Gateway Corridor for Commercial Uses
Strengths and weaknesses of the commercial potential of the South Urban Gateway Corridor
are summarized below.
Corridor Strengths Corridor Weaknesses
• Convenient access to major roadways • Mix of uses(office, retail, industrial)
including South Robert Trail, County not always compatible with each other
Road 42 and County Road 46; • Older retail uses appear worn
• Current heavy traffic volumes on Coun-
• Apple Valley retail competes with this
ty Roads 42 and 46 and increasing traf- area for customers for some types of
fic on County Road 46
uses
• High household incomes in the area Small parcel sizes for properties to the
which are desired by many retailers west of South Robert Trail will pose a
• Solid household growth projected for challenge for redevelopment
Rosemount
• Situated in an existing, recognized
commercial node within the City; most
residents in the City are aware of the
Gateway Corridor; additional surround-
ing uses are a mix of commercial, in-
dustrial, agricultural and residential
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 13
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Introduction
This section of the report presents our analysis of demographic characteristics and growth
trends in the South Urban Gateway Corridor. An appropriate draw area was determined from
which commercial uses and retail space would likely attract shoppers and tenants. We then
analyze key demographic data in the Market Area, as they relate to the demand for various
types of commercial uses including retail, office and industrial development.
Market Area Definition
Maxfield Research Inc. determined the Market Area for the South Urban Gateway Corridor
based on proximity to other commercial nodes,commuting patterns, geographic boundaries,
and interviews with commercial brokers and our expertise in commercial analysis. The Primary
Market Area (PMA) includes a larger area from which a wide variety of uses would be drawn
including commercial uses and industrial uses. A smaller Retail Trade Area was also determined
that comprises a geographic area from which residents would likely consider patronizing
businesses that offer products and services or entertainment-based retail located in the Corri-
dor. The larger PMA includes the Cities of Rosemount, Eagan,Apple Valley, Inver Grove
Heights, Lakeville, Empire Township and Farmington. This is the area from which a broad base
of industrial and commercial uses could be drawn. Industrial users tend to look for locations
that offer them a strong central location to vendors and customers and good access to distribu-
tion corridors. Destination commercial uses are based on the purchase of major products and
services, such as furniture, appliances, or products that are distinctive in some way. Although
we do not necessarily view the Corridor as a destination retail location, some destination uses
could be accommodated there in the future. We also identified Dakota County as a Secondary
Market Area for some types of goods and services that would have a regional draw such as the
movie theater. Maps of the Market Areas follow.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 14
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Map 7
South Urban Gateway Corridor Primary Market Area
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 15
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Map 8
South Urban Gateway Corridor Commercial Draw Area
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3 c rove !? .
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Lo ai cm Hitis - Gtey ri0iPi1
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}
Population and Household Growth Trends
The following charts present population and household growth trends and projections for the
Retail Draw Area from 2000 to 2030. The 2000 and 2010 population and household figures
were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. Projections for 2020 and 2030 were compiled by
Maxfield Research Inc. based on building permit trends, existing land area, historic growth
trends and projected economic development.
The following points summarize key demographic findings.
• As of 2010, Rosemount and the surrounding communities contained 73,402 people and
27,254 households. From 2000 to 2010,the population increased 18.8%while the number
of households expanded by 26.3%. Rosemount alone gained 7,255 people and 2,845
households during this period.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 16
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
• By 2020,the Rosemount and the surrounding communities are projected to add nearly
18,000 people and 7,200 households. The substantial growth in population is expected to
occur as families are attracted to new housing in the area.
Chart 1: Population Growth Trends
South Urban Gateway Trade Area
2000-2030
■Rosemount ®Empire Twp. IN Apple Valley
70,000
60,000 --- -----_—— — '�_
c ¢ ,
NN
Vh
50,000 j
0 40,000 —.__— �+{ s_ eL ..__ ._— — �+rzl.«]_— 1l k
E 30,000 P5, y -
�
.
20,000 ` t�.
10,000 --
0
2000 2010 2020 2030
Sources: US Census; ESRI; Metropolitan Council; Maxfield Research Inc.
• Between 2010 and 2020, Dakota County's population and household base are expected to
increase+8.4%to 432,100 and+10.3%to 167,700, respectively. As of 2010, Rosemount,
Apple Valley and Empire Township contained roughly 18.4% of the County's population. By
2020,these communities are expected to contain approximately 20.5%of the County's
population.
• Population in the Seven-County Metro Area is projected to increase 6.5%to 3,035,000 in
2020 while the number of households will grow by 7.8%.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 17
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Chart 2: Household Growth Trends
South Urban Gateway Trade Area
2000-2030
R Rosemount i Empire Twp. r.-Apple Valley
30000 --
t .
a 25000 ---
x 20000
O
15000 --_.___._.— w—.._._
Z
10000
c.
5000
0
2000 2010 2020 2030
Sources: US Census; ESRI Inc.;Metropolitan Council;Maxfield Research Inc.
Population Age Distribution
The age distribution of the population relates to the type of retail services needed in a given
community. Younger people are more likely to seek a variety of retail services including enter-
tainment, electronics and specialty apparel. Child stores increase in popularity for the 25 to 34
and 35 to 44 cohorts while home furnishings are more frequently sought by the 45 to 54 and 55
to 64 age groups. The following chart presents the age distribution of the population in Rose-
mount from 1990 to 2030, based on Census data and projected demographic trends by age
cohort.
• The table shows that largest age cohort in Rosemount will continue to be children and
teens. This group is expected to continue to increase over the next 20 years as families
move to Rosemount. Older adults and young seniors(55 to 74) are expected to experience
the greatest rate of growth during this period, as the baby boom generation ages in to their
early senior years.
• Although all age groups in Rosemount will experience population growth during the next 20
years,the middle ages groups are not expected to experience quite as much growth as oth-
er cohorts. This is primarily because those ages 35 to 54 are generally a smaller age cohort
in the Twin Cities overall, due to demographic shifts and fewer births during the period
when these people were born.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 18
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Chart 3: Age Distribution of the Population
City of Rosemount, 2000-2030
17 and 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
Under
N 2000 E 2010 0 2020 M2030
�
Overall, as more households relocate to Rosemount, the need for retail goods and services
in close proximity to residences will increase. These next ten to1S years should reflect
strong household growth in Rosemount and an increase in the potential opportunity to at-
tract more retail goods and services to the community.
Chart 4: Population Growth 2000-2030
Total T�T
.1 143,78C
75+ 1629
65 to 74 3,118 M Rosemount
55 to 64 '4,4 1 2 9 31,950 Dakota County
45 to 54
35 to 44 .1,037 3,262
17-
20 to 24 2,511
-20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000
Number of People
I Sources: US Census;Minnesota State Demographer;Maxfield Research Inc. I
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 19
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Household Incomes
Household income data helps ascertain demand for different types of retail services. People
with lower incomes are likely to seek out discount retailers as well as necessities like grocery
items. Retail services and goods such as dining and home furnishings will experience higher
spending from more moderate income households while upper income households will also
shop for specialty apparel, recreation and sporting goods, and luxury items. Tables 3 and 4
show household incomes for Rosemount and other communities in Dakota County for 2013 and
2018. Household income data was compiled by Ribbon Demographics.
The following summarizes the significant points from Table 3.
• The 2013 estimated median income in Rosemount ($77,178) is 7.5% higher than the median
income in Dakota County($71,361). Therefore, the Market Area is relatively affluent com-
pared to Dakota County as a whole,suggesting that households have more resources to de-
vote toward retail services and goods.
• By 2018,the median household income in Rosemount is expected to increase just slightly to
$77,475. The median household income for Dakota County is expected to increase to
$79,593 during this time period. The anticipated increase in household incomes in Rose-
mount however, may be significantly affected by new housing that is developed in the area,
especially in Wore Park. This could cause the median household income to rise to equal or
above that of the County.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 20
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
TABLE
HOUSEHOLDS BY MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
DAKOTA COUNTY
2013
City A es15-24 892 -34 es; --A4 A es45-54 A es55.64 s65.74 es 75+ Total
Developed Communities
Burnsville $30,258 $55,096 $68,710 $80,945 $76,352 $50,981 $29,205 $55,096
Eagan $36,280 $62,095 $82,211 $98,975 $93,790 $49,457 $29,508 $62,095
Inver Grove Heights $38,445 $59,985 $76,139 $81,238 $76,152 $54,489 $36,552 $59,985
Ulydale $62,500 $76,786 $89,583 $101,786 $99,167 $77,083 $44,625 $77,083
Mendota $62,500 $50,000 $112,500 $100,000 $100,000 $83,333 $33,416 $83,933
Mendota Heights $43,333 $74,826 $106,849 $107,036 $106,461 $61,900 $49,764 $74,826
South St,Paul $25,313 $52,769 $61,021 $61,820 557,453 $40,865 $26,316 $52,769
Sunfish lake $112,500 $175,000 $162,500 $155,000 $150,000 $70,313 $48,333 $150,000
West St.Paul 930,797 $48648 S59A18 $66134 S61,496 $35,D87 $24,047 1 848,648
Subtotal $38,446 $59,985 582211 $98,975 1193,790 $54,489 $33,416 62,096
Growth Communities
Apple Valley $39,116 $62500 $77,907 $89,448 $87,617 $55,875 $31,169 $62,500
Farmington $55,545 $79,912 $90,098 $80,635 $76,533 $56,042 $34,725 $76,533
Hastings $28,144 $65,660 $76,226 $72,769 $69,089 $40,737 $45,642 $65,660
Lakeville $41,486 $75,889 $94,717 $37,375 $94,278 $54,550 $62,439 $75,989
Rose Taunt $54,009 $77178 $91,986 $94,351 $92,275 S60,587 $31197 S77.178
Subtotal 41486 $75,885 889 a0 8 $89,448 $87,617 $55,375 $a4,7215 75889
RuratArea
Castle Rack township $62,500 $74,219 $81,500 $76,293 $72500 $54,167 $31,875 $72500
Coates $62,500 $62500 $70,833 $87,500 $87,500 $46,250 $42,500 $62,500
Douglas township $0 $79,167 $92,857 $95,000 $90,625 $45,500 $25,875 $79,167
Empire township $55,357 $71,111 $80,147 $75,852 $72,581 $54,348 $35,625 $71,111
Eureka township $112,500 $85,227 $101,786 $93,548 $91,000 $55,882 $31,875 $93,000
Greenvale township $62,50D $69,643 $93,056 $87,500 $81,944 $51,389 $30,313 $69,643
Hampton $42,500 $73,611 $84,375 $82,500 $78,125 $48,929 $34,375 $73,611
Hampton township $46,250 $76,923 $83594 $78,125 $75,735 $46,667 $44,643 $75,735
Marshan township $62500 $71,875 $81,250 $72,783 $72,619 $45,625 $27,750 $71,875
Mlesvllle $0 $62,500 $30,000 $87,500 $95,833 $87,500 $42500 $62,500
NewTNer $30,000 $62,500 $87,500 $68,750 $81,250 $75,000 $14,999 $68,750
Nlningertownship - $42,500 $75,000 $85,000 $85,000 $80,769 $43,036 $25,000 $75,000
Northfield $70,833 $73,750 $91,071 $86,806 $83,333 $49,063 $26,500 $73,750
Randolph $25,000 $75,000 $82,143 $81,944 $76,563 $501000 $77,500 $76563
Randal phtownshlp $35,000 $80,682 $84,615 $79,412 $73,750 $46,250 $33,250 $73,750
Ravenna township $83,333 $81,250 $91,554 $95,109 $91,554 $65,948 $49,028 $83,333
Scioto township $62,500 $65,625 $100,000 $90,000 $82,500 $55,000 $30,625 $65,625
Vermillion $75,000 $75,000 $85,417 $76,785 $73,438 $59,375 $75,000 $75,000
Vermillion township $66,667 $74,219 $83,824 $82,065 $78,289 $60,119 $42,875 $74,219
Waterford towns hi $175,000 $71&75 87,5CC $84,375 $87,500 1 $51,786 $23750 S84.375
Subtotal $fi2500 $73983 $84808 $83,439 .$81010 $51,589 $112.566a 73759
Total $39259 $66,625 $83855 91;812 $79893 $55205 29522 $71.61
Sources:Ribbon Demographics,Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 21
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
TABLE 4
HOUSEHOLDS BY MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
DAKOTA COUNTY
2018
City JARef 15.25 A as 25.35- [Age 35-4S es 45.55 A es s5-65 Was 65-75 A es75+ Totei
Develo edCommunities
Burnsville $31,526 $56,216 $69,332 $82,625 $79,382 $53,610 $30,369 $56,216
Eagan $38,672 $65,417 $81,466 $104,012 $99,840 $54,266 $32,113 $55,417
I nver Grove Heights $38,402 $62,494 $75,090 $84,346 $80,217 $57,162 $37,890 $62,494
Lllydale $75,000 $81,250 $100,000 $110,417 $106,818 $80,357 $45,875 $81,250
Mendota $75,000 $87,500 $100,000 $100,000 $106,250 $75,000 $31,042 $87,500
Mendota Heights $47,237 $86,089 $110,887 $113,655 $113,018 $66,694 $36,839 $86,089
South St.Paul $26,176 $54,182 $62,900 $63,446 $59,157 $42,178 $27,006 $54,182
Sunfish Lake $112,500 $175,000 $200,000 $175,000 $178,571 $72,500 $46,250 $175,000
West St.Paul $31,972 $50365 61202 $67,24D $63,929 $36.715 $24704 $50,365
Subtotal $39,671 $66,417 $41,466 $100101210 $99,840 $57,162 33 118- 79$35
}ow h Corn unities.
Apple Valley $40,337 $65,525 $78,823 $91,465 $91,494 $59,282 $34,129 $65,525
Farmington $58,036 $81,510 $91,807 $83,176 $79,470 $58,403 $41,280 $79,470
Hastings $30,213 $67,647 $78,031 $75,139 $71,512 $42,261 $24,438 $67,647
Lakeville $43,631 $81,583 $97,623 $101,386 $99,327 $58,708 $35,326 $81,583
Rosemount 240,682 588,092 $94,878 $85,723 $50,169 $34.796 $77475
Subtotal -40682 S77A75, 03a,092 91 SS 723 5840A -34796 $74,340
Rural Ar a
Cast]a Rock townshl p $55,000 $74,219 $84,239 $79,000 $76,500 $57,895 $42$00 $74,219
Coates $112,500 $68,750 $68,750 $112,500 $95,833 $47,5DD $38,750 $68,750
Douglas township $14,999 $83,333 $95,833 $100,000 $92,188 $44,543 $43,750 $83,333
Empire township $60,000 $73,355 $80,882 $77,394 $76,042 $57,661 $43,750 $73,355
Eureka township $62,500 $87,500 $104,167 $97,396 $96,000 $65,132 $36,250 $87,500
Greenvale township $66,667 $82,500 $96,429 $96,250 $91,250 $52,083 $31,250 $82,500
Hampton $42,500 $73,611 $88,462 $82,692 $81,667 $50,00C $29,375 $73,611
Hampton township $46,250 $79,808 $86,765 $61,250 $78,947 $50,962 $29,375 $78,947
Marshan township $42,500 $73,077 $87,500 $77,344 $74,375 $49,423 $40,625 $73,077
Mlesvll le $0 $125,000 $112,500 $100,000 $95,833 $42,500 $36,250 $95,833
New Trier $20,000 $75,000 $62,500 $81,250 $79,167 $75,000 $31,250 $75,000
Nininger township $42$00 $75,000 $90,278 $93,750 $86,667 $45,000 $27,250 $75,000
Northfield $62,500 $79,688 $101,042 $94,853 $86,765 $54,375 $27,500 $79,688
Randolph $30,000 $81,250 $90,625 $78,125 $79,167 $53,571 $31,2$0 $78,125
Re rd of ph township $50,000 $78,409 $88,393 $00,833 $79,688 $48,500 $30,000 $78,409
Ravenna township $85,417 $85,227 $94,500 $99,128 $95,427 $69,595 $50,834 $85,417
Sclota township $87,500 $70,833 $100,000 $100,000 $95,000 $57,143 $23,75D $87,50D
Vermillion $87,500 $72,917 $89,583 $83,333 $84,375 $63,750 $39,750 $83,333
Vermillion township $54,167 $77,500 $88,281 $86,875 $82,955 $62,069 $49,375 $77,500
Waterford townshl p $68,750 7125 $97500 94643 93750 54167 $26250 78125
Subtotal $54,584 $78;611; 89,931
S"!2
90 313 85 521 $53,869 $33,75 - 74 461.
Total $43,103 $78A17 _____$93,932 $101,043 1 $90,755 1# $84,510 1 $32,313 79,593
Sources:Ribbon Demographics,Maxfield Research Inc,
Employment Forecast
The employment data in Table 5 is from the Metropolitan Council and the Minnesota Depart-
ment of Employment and Economic Development for Rosemount,Apple Valley and Empire
Township. The following are key trends derived from Table 5.
• Although employment growth often parallels population growth, it often is tied more
strongly to transportation access. Cities with interstate access and intra-and inter-metro
transportation attract more businesses and post higher employment gains. By 2015, more
than 4,000 jobs are forecast to be added in the PMA. Employment over the decade is antic-
ipated to increase 15.1%in the PMA,compared to 14.4%throughout Dakota County and
9.7%in the Seven-County Metro Area.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 22
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
TABLE 5
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TRENDS
SOUTH URBAN GATEWAY CORRIDOR TRADE AREA
2000-2030
Change
iii i 2010-2020
2000 2010 2025 2020 2030 No. Pct, No. Pct.
Employment
Apple Valley 12,106 15,259 16,711 20,100 22,000 3,153 26.0 4,841 31.7
Eagan 42,750 54,725 57,073 62,550 69,550 11,975 28.0 7,825 14.3
Rosemount 6,356 7,332 8,162 10,100 12,500 976 15A 2,768 37.8
Em I re Towns h i 217 268 350 390 480
Market Area Total 61,212; 77,316 81,946 92,750 104,050 16,104 26.3 15,434 20.0
Dakota County 154,242 185,261 198,540 229,523 261,892 31,019 20.1 44,262 23.9
7-County Metro Area 1,563,245 1,690,757 1,716,972 1,743,000 1,943,000 127,512 8.2 52,243 3.1
sources: MN Department of Em to ment and Economic Development;Maxfield Research Inc.
Covered Employment by Industry
Table 6 shows covered employment in Rosemount in 2000 and 2013. The chart following the
table shows the increase in covered employment in Rosemount and Dakota County from 2012
to 2013. Covered employment data is published by the Minnesota Department of Employment
and Economic Development. Some categories of employment may have been suppressed due
to non-disclosure regulations. The following are key trends from Table 6 and Chart 5.
• The number of covered jobs(Chart 5) located in the City of Rosemount increased by 8.7%
from year-end 2012 to year-end 2013;
• Average weekly wages increased by 6.9%over this same period. Since 2000, average
weekly wages increased by 59.0%(Table 6).
• Compared to Dakota County as a whole, Rosemount has higher proportions of jobs in
Manufacturing and Education and Health Services than does the County. These industries
increased substantially since 2000 in Rosemount. Despite the Recession, Rosemount expe-
rienced an increase in Manufacturing employment. Rosemount also has a relatively high
proportion of jobs in the Trade,Transportation and Warehousing industry sector, although
somewhat lower than the County as a whole.
• A substantial number of jobs are found in the Retail Trade sector as many suburban com-
munities have jobs that provide goods and services to the local population. Future growth
in industrial space could provide more jobs in the manufacturing, construction or other type
of production sectors. These jobs tend to pay higher wages than those in the Retail Trade
sector.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 23
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
TABLE 6
COVERED EMPLOYMENT BY IN DUSTRY SECTOR
CITY OF ROSEMOUNT
2000 and 2013
2000 2013 Employment
Total Avg.Weekly Total Avg.Weekly Change
Industry Sector Employment Wage Employment Wage 2000-2013
Constructlon 1,108 $1,232 1,127 $1,598 19
Manufacturing 1,254 $1,190 1,492 $2,059 238
Wholesale Trade 217 $788 --- --- ---
Retail Trade 272 $367 345 $442 73
Transportation and Warehousing 357 $885 1,009 $1,029 652
Information --- -- 85 $840 ---
FinanceandInsurance --- -- 68 $1,007
Real Estate Rental/Leasing --- -- 69 $485 ---
Professional,Scientific,Technical 200 $B83 110 $920 -90
Management ofCompanles and Enterprises -- --- --- ---
AdministrativeandSupport 142 $406 105 $603 -37
Education 1,786 $551 1,242 $991 •544
Health Services 149 $448 300 $516 151
Arts Entertainment&Recreation 65 $254 96 $221 31
Accommodation and Food Service 273 $172 543 $228 270
Other Services 126 $341 193 $605 67
Publ lc Admi nistration 137 $751 343 $801 206
Self-Employed 122 N/A 360 N/A 238
Total Employment 6,208 $625 7,487 $974 1,279
Sources: MN DEED;Maxfield Research Inc.
Chart 5: 2013 Covered Employment: % of Total
Public Administration
Other Services
Leisure&Hospitality
Education&Health Services
Professional&Business Services
Financial Activities -5
Information .,.;;,
Trade,Transportation,Utilities
Manufacturing I AI
Construction ( .._;..
Natural Resources and Mining
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
a Dakota County KI Rosemount
Source: MN Department of Employment and Economic Development
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 24
RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS
Introduction
This section presents and analyzes information relating to the condition of the retail market and
the potential for future retail development in the South Urban Gateway Corridor. The potential
for new retail development in Rosemount and in the Corridor is influenced by overall market
conditions in the Trade Area, also referred to as the Market Area.
Information analyzed in this section includes consumer expenditures by Trade Area residents,
regional retail development trends, the commercial supply in the Trade Area, retail businesses
by type in the Trade Area, and an assessment of lease rates among retail shopping centers in
the area. Based on an analysis of this information, calculations of the retail potential for the
South Urban Gateway Corridor are presented.
Consumer Expenditure Patterns
Table 7 shows consumer expenditures on retail goods and services in the Retail Trade Area in
2014, according to data obtained from ESRI based on Consumer Expenditure Surveys from the
Bureau of Labor Statistics. The table shows the average expenditures per household and the
amount spent in the Trade Area by product or service. In addition, a Spending Potential Index
(SPI) is illustrated for comparison purposes. The SPI is based on households and represents the
amount spent for a product or service relative to the national average of 100. An SPI of 115
shows that the average annual expenditure by local consumers is 15%above the national
average. The average expenditure reflects the average amount spent per household, while the
total expenditure reflects the aggregate amount spent by all households in the area.
Consumer spending is influenced by market conditions and trends. In times of economic
troubles, market conditions drive spending patterns, whereas in times of a booming economy
consumer trends feature opportunity and convenience. Two-thirds of the national economy is
driven by consumer spending. During the current recession, households have decreased
spending, increased savings, and reduced credit card debt as many households have been faced
with job losses. In essence, when the housing market began its decline in late 2006 into 2007,
consumer spending and consumer confidence followed.
During the recent recession, consumers curtailed their spending habits as credit and home
equity lines diminished as available sources of cash. Although consumer spending has in-
creased in recent quarters, a change in consumer habits is likely to result in consumer spending
levels below pre-recession rates in the near term.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 25
RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS
TABLE 7
ESTIMATED HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES BY SELECTED PRODUCTTYPE
SOUTH URBAN GATEWAY MARKET AREA
2014
PMA Annual Dakota Spending Potential index
Ex enditures Count to USA
Total Average Average
Category $000's) Per HH Per HH PMA Dakota Cty.
Goods&Services Index Index
Apparel&Services $15,354 $1,766 $1,872 82 87
Entertainment and Recreation $34,416 $3,959 $4,121 128 134
Nonprescription Drugs $1,193 $137 $144 117 122
Prescription Drugs $4,444 $511 $554 i11 120
Eye Glasses&Contact Lenses $846 $97 $104 119 127
Personal Care Products $4,567 $525 $542 124 128
Child Care $5,202 $599 $585 142 139
School Books&Supplies $1,864 $214 $225 121 127
Smoking Products $3,953 $455 $514 99 111
Computer Hardware $2,075 $239 $254 123 131
Computer Software $215 $25 $25 132 135
Pets $6,471 $744 $761 147 151
Food In Index
Food at Home $48,599 $5,591 $5,967 117 125
Food Away from Home $32,558 $3,746 $3,926 124 130
Alcoholic Beverages $5,370 $618 $661 122 131
Misc.Beverages at Home $4,504 $518 $555 115 123
Home Index Index
Home Mortgage Payment/Rent $110,725 $12,739 $12,635 142 140
Maintenance&Remodeling Services $17,242 $1,984 $2,054 129 134
Maintenance&Remodeling Materials $2,897 $333 $339 121 123
Utilities $48,915 $5,628 $5,993 117 125
Household Furnishings,Equipment,&Operations Index Index
Household Textiles $1,058 $122 $130 122 130
Furniture $5,114 $588 $603 129 132
Floor Coverings $237 $27 $32 113 134
Major Appliances $2,894 $333 $334 127 128
Small Appliances $429 $49 $53 116 126
Housewares $668 $77 $80 108 113
Luggage $100 $12 $12 137 140
Telephone&Accessories $500 $57 $59 113 117
Lawn&Garden $4,125 $475 $505 118 125
Moving/Storage/Freight Express $629 $72 $81 117 130
Housekeeping Supplies $6,989 $804 $848 119 126
Financial&Insurance Index Index
Investments $24,721 $2,844 $2,816 145 143
Vehicle Loa ns $41,126 $4,732 $4,733 130 130
Owners&Renters Insurance $5,182 $596 $607 128 130
Vehicle Insurance $11,981 $1,378 $1,452 122 129
Life/Other lnsurance $4,426 $509 $530 123 128
Health Insurance $24,107 $2,773 $2,973 118 126
F CONTINUED
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 26
RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS
TABLE 7 CONTINUED
ESTIMATED HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES BY SELECTED PRODUCT TYPE
SOUTH URBAN GATEWAY MARKET AREA
2014
PMA Annual Dakota Spending Potential Index
Expenditures County to USA
Total Average Average
Category _ ($000's) Per HH Per HH PMA Dakota Cty.
Transportation Index Index
Cars and Trucks(Net Outlay) $37,472 $4,311 $4,408 126 129
Gasoline and Motor Oil $30,803 $3,544 $3,666 121 125
Vehicle Maintenance/Repair $11,144 $1,282 $1,344 124 130
Travel Index Index
Airline Fares $5,067 $583 $606 134 139
Lodging $4,523 $520 $544 129 135
Vehicle Rental $373 $43 $45 134 139
Food&Drink $4,671 $537 $558 129 134
Average Annual Household Expenditures Summary
Goods&Services $80,601 $8,529 $8,940
Food $91,030 $10,473 $11,109
Home $179,780 $20,683 $21,021
Household $22,743 $2,617 $2,738
Financial and Insurance $111,544 $12,833 $13,111
Transportation $79,419 $9,137 $9,419
Travel $14,634 $1,684 $1,753
Total $579,751 $65,955 $68,091
Note: The Spending Potential Index is based on households and represents the amount spentfor a product or
service relative to the national average of100.
Sources:ESRI•Maxfield Research Inc.
The following are key points from Table 7.
• Overall, residents from PMA are estimated to have spent approximately $194.4 million on
retail goods and services in 2014,excluding housing,finance/insurance, and travel expendi-
tures as well as vehicle purchases
• Average annual expenditures (excluding the categories mentioned above) are estimated to
be $21,619 per household in the PMA.
• In virtually every product and service category, expenditures by PMA households are
substantially higher than the national average and somewhat higher than the Twin Cities
Metro Area.
• Housing expenses account for approximately one-third of total consumer expenditures in
the PMA with residents spending between 15%and 25%more than the Metro average.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 27
RETAIL MARKET ANALYSES
Households in the PMA spent a total of$575 million on retail expenditures in 2014. With
the number of households projected to grow substantially to 2020, they would generate
additional expenditures annually, not factoring in inflation. The South Urban Gateway par-
cels would have an ability to compete for this additional retail potential.
Chart 6: Average Annual Household Expenditures
and Median Household Income, 2014
$74,000 _
c Avg.Spending/HH
$72,000 _ �� ���
2s Median HH Incomebru,
$70,000 ,
$68,000.
$66,000
i
$64,000 V-1
$62,000
Rosemount Dakota Cty.
Sources: ESRI Inc.;Maxfield Research Inc.
Chart 7: Average Annual Household Expenditures by Category,
2014
$30,000
All Other Goods and Services
j y x
$25,000 � � � 0 Pets
$20,000 ■Household
Furnishings/Equipment
$15,000 ■Food Away From Home
$10,000
m Food at Home
$5,000
a Entertainment/Recreation
$0
Rosemount Dakota Cty. ■Apparel
Sources: ESRI Inc.; Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 28
RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS
Retail Demand Potential and Leakage
Table 8 presents retail sales for the PMA in 2014. The sales information is from ESRI based on
household counts from the U.S. Census Bureau. This information lists retail demand (potential
sales), retail supply to consumers(retail sales) and provides a picture of the gap between the
area's retail supply and demand. A positive value represents"leakage" of retail opportunity to
stores outside of the PMA, while a negative value represents a surplus of retail sales, where
customers are drawn to area retailers from outside the PMA. The following are key points of
the retail demand potential,
• In 2014, the City of Rosemount had leakage in retail sales in nearly all retail industry groups
except for Health and Personal Care (i.e.tanning, spa, nails, massage,and hair salons), Lawn
and Garden Equipment Supply Stores, Furniture Stores and Auto Parts and Accessories.
• The highest leakage in retail sales occurs in General Merchandise, Clothing and Accessories,
Electronics and Appliances and non-store retailers. Leakage in these categories is generally
over 80%.
Chart 8: Retail Surplus/Leakage Factor by Industry, 2014
Food Services& Drinking Places
Nonstore Retailers
Miscellaneous Store Retailers _
General Merchandise
Sporting Goods, Hobby...
Clothing and Accessories...
Gasoline Stations
Health&Personal Care
I Food& Beverage Stores
Bldg Materials,Garden Equip...
Electronics&Appliance
Furniture&Home Furnishings N
Motor Vehicle&Parts _
100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Sources: ESRI,Inc.;Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 29
RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS
TABLE 8
RETAIL DEMAND POTENTIAL AND LEAKAGE
CITY OF ROSEMOUNT
2014
Demand Supply Retail Gap Surplus/Leakage Numberof
Industry Group(NAICS Code) (Retail Potential) (Retail Sales) (Demand-Supply) Factor Businesses
TctalRetall Trade and Food&Drink(NAICS44.45,722) $293,653,491 $88,092,914 $205560,577 53.8 117
Total Retail Trade(NAICS44-45) $263,843,850 $79,909,990 $183,933,860 53.5 102
Total Food&Drink(NAICS 722) $29,869,641 $8,182,923 $21,626,718 56.9 15
EXPENDITURE
Motor Vehicle&Parts Dealers $50,982,437 $6,641,315 $44,341,122 76.9 12
Automobil e Dea lers $43,805,299 $812,456 $42,992,843 96.4 2
Other Motor Vehicl e Dea I ers $3,271,548 $1,337,921 $1,933,626 41.9 3
Auto Parts,Accessories&Tire Stores $3,905,591 $4,490,938 ($585,347) (7.0) 7
Furniture&Home Furnishings Stores $5,731,354 $5,191,469 $539,885 4.9 4
Furniture Stores $3,567,496 $5,022,013 ($1,514,518) (17.8) 2
Home Furnishings Stores $2,223,859 $169,455 $2,054,403 85.8 2
Electronics&Appliance Stores $6,562,260 $509,717 $5,952,543 83.0 7
Bldg Materials,Garden Equip.&Supply Stores $9,570,865 $6,298,132 $3,372,733 21.1 11
Bldg Material&Supplies Dealers $8,114,087 $741,548 $7,372,539 83.3 7
Lawn&Garden Equip&Supply Stores $1,556,778 $5,556,584 ($3,999,806) (56.2) 4
Food&Beverage Stores $40,597,447 $31,785,490 $8,811,957 12.2 14
Grocery Stores $35,085,814 $27,615,759 $7,470,055 11.9 8
Specialty Food Stores $947,175 $203,423 $743,752 64.6 3
Beer,Wine&Liquor Stores $4,564,458 $3,966,308 $598,151 7.0 3
Health&Personal Care Stores $18,293,181 $18,750,234 ($457,053) (1.2) 5
Gasoline Stations $29,265,775 $6,124,221 $23,141,554 65,4 1
Clothing&Clothing Accessories Stores $13,484,652 $925,570 $12,559,082 87.2 8
ClothingStores $10,543,167 $498,287 $10,044,880 91.0 4
Shoe Stores $2,339,721 $0 $2,339,721 100.0 0
Jewelry,Luggage&Leather Goods Stores $601,763 $427,283 $174,481 17.0 4
Sporting Goods,Hobby,Book&Music Stores $6,474,885 $1,364,542 $5,110,343 65.2 8
Sporti no Goods/Hobby/Musl ca I InstrStores $5,089,253 $1,048,878 $4,040,376 65.8 6
Book,Periodical&Music Stores $1,385,632 $315,665 $1,069,967 62.9 2
General Merchandise Stores $50,374,406 $92,851 $50,281,554 99.6 2
Department Stores Excluding Leas edDepts. $21,577,278 $92,851 $21,484,427 99.1 1
Other General Merchandise Stores $28,797,128 $0 $28,797,128 100.0 0
Miscellaneous Store Retailers $6,106,629 $1,591,323 $4,515,306 58.7 23
Florists $341,176 $306,922 $34,254 5.3 2
Office Supplies,Stationery&Gift Stores $1,256,936 $307,050 $949,886 60.7 5
Used Merchandise Stores $969,614 $0 $969,614 100.0 0
Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers $3,538,904 $977,352 $2,561,552 56.7 16
Nonstore Retailers $26,299,959 $535,125 $25,764,834 96.0 8
Electronic Shopping&Mail-Order Houses $23,515,916 $0 $23,515,916 100.0 0
Vending Machine Operators $752,406 $81,260 $671,146 80.5 1
Direct Selling Establishments $2,031,637 $453,865 $1,577,772 63.5 7
Food Services&Drinking Places $29,809,641 $8,182,923 $21,626,718 56.9 15
Full-ServlceRestaurants $12,419,391 $1,703,011 $10,716,380 75.9 4
Limited-Servlce EatingPlaces $15,193,160 $6,385,248 $8,807,912 40.8 10
Special Food Services $1,034,446 $94,664 $939,781 83.2 1
Drinkl no Places-AlcoholicBevera es $1,162644 $0 $1,162,644 100.0 0
Note: All figures quoted in 2014 dollars.Supply(retail sales)estimates sales to consumers by establishments,sales to businesses are
excluded. Demand(retail potential)estimates the expected amoutspent by consumers at a retail establishment Leakage/Surplusfactor
measures the relationship between supply and demand atranges from+100(total leakage)to-100(total surplus). A positivevalue represents
"leakage"of retail opportunity outside the trade area. A negative value represents a surplus of retail sales,a market where customers are drawn
in from outsidethetrade area.
Sources:FSRI;Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 30
RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS
• By dollar volume, retail leakage was greatest in General Merchandise Retailers,Automobile
Dealers, Eating and Drinking Establishments and Gasoline Stations.
• Data indicates that, while surpluses exist in a few categories, Rosemount households are
generally leaving the community to spend most of their retail dollars at retail outlets out-
side of Rosemount.
• Considering the forecasted age distribution and household incomes of the Rosemount and
surrounding areas' populations, store types with high potential include: General Merchan-
dise stores, Sporting Goods, Pet Stores, and Food and Beverage Outlets.
• Demand potential in Rosemount and in the surrounding Trade Area will increase along with
household growth over the coming years, especially as the economy continues to rebound.
Types of Retail Goods and Customer Shopping Patterns
The following describes the various types of retail goods and the manner in which customers
generally shop for these goods. Because of the significant diversification of retail outlets, some
of these categories overlap in certain cases.
Shopping goods are those on which shoppers spend the most effort and for which they have
the greatest desire to comparison shop. The trade area for shopping goods tends to be gov-
erned by the urge among shoppers to compare goods based on selection, service and price.
Therefore, the size of the trade area for shopping goods is affected most by the overall availa-
bility of goods in alternate locations. Some examples of shopping goods include furniture,
appliances, clothing and automobiles.
Convenience goods are those that consumers need immediately and frequently and are there-
fore purchased where it is most convenient for shoppers. Shoppers as a rule find it most
convenient to buy such goods near home, near work or near a temporary residence when
traveling. Examples of these types of goods include gasoline,fast food, liquor, groceries,
pharmaceuticals, health and beauty aids,among others.
Specialty goods are those on which shoppers spend more effort to purchase. Such merchandise
has no clear trade area because customers will go out of their way to find specialty items
wherever they are sold. By definition, comparison shopping for specialty goods is much less
significant than for shopping goods. Examples of these include gift shops,florists, pet stores,
art gallery, antiques, home furnishings,textiles (needlework and fabrics), art supplies, books.
The home furnishings segment has some overlap between shopping goods and specialty goods.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 31
RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS
Impulse goods are those that shoppers do not actively or consciously seek. In stores, impulse
goods are positioned near entrances or exits or in carefully considered relationships to shop-
ping goods. Impulse goods are most likely to be located as a segment within other stores to
capture additional impulse revenue from customer traffic. Examples of these types of goods
are: candy and drinks at a dry cleaning establishment, candy or small novelty items near the
cash register at a gift shop, accessories or jewelry at the counter in a clothing store. These may
be located within existing stores, but would not be a separate establishment.
Retail Mix in Rosemount
The following chart displays information on the mix of retailers in Rosemount. The information
is based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) for businesses in the
Retail Trade and Food Services and Drinking Places sectors. This data is compiled by ESRI from
Infogroup and is current as of April 2014. Infogroup references several sources to obtain their
information including directory listings such as Yellow Pages and business white pages; annual
reports; SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) information;federal, state, and municipal
government data;and, information from the US Postal Service.
• Miscellaneous Store Retailers represent the largest number of retailers in Rosemount at
19.7%. Food and Beverage outlets represent almost 13.0%of all retailers in the City while
Motor Vehicle Parts and Services represent 10.2%of all retail businesses.
Chart 9: Rosemount Retail Mix-2014
12.8 10.2
■Motor Vehicle&Parts
3.4
■Furniture&Home Furnishings
fig 6 a Electronics&Appliance
Y Bldg Materials,Garden Equip.,.
a Food&Beverage Stores
a Health&Personal Care
9.4
■Gasoline Stations
s�
far ■Clothing and Accessories-
19'7 Ea Sporting Goods,Hobby...
m General Merchandise
12 2 Miscellaneous Store Retailers
a Nonstore Retailers
0.9
6.8 0 9 4.3 1 Food Services&Drinking Places
6.8
Source: ESRI Inc.;Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 32
RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS
Local Retail Market Conditions
The following chart shows a comparison of multi-tenant retail space in Rosemount and sur-
rounding communities in square feet. The blue represents total square feet and the purple
represents occupied square feet. In most cases, vacancy rates appear to be quite low in north-
ern Dakota County with only a couple of exceptions (Burnsville and Inver Grove Heights).
As shown, Eagan has the highest amount of multi-tenant retail space followed by Burnsville.
Apple Valley and Lakeville are almost equal, followed by Inver Grove Heights. Rosemount has
the least multi-tenant retail space, although Rosemount's Downtown has more single-tenant
and owner-occupied retail users.
Chart 10: Multi-Tenant Retail Space
Total and Occupied-4Q13
7,000,000 —.-_.._..--
6,000,000 ----------------....----- - —----
51000,000 - - - -
a
°J. 4,000,000 — --
a
3,000,000 ---- - ---
2,000,000 - - - - -- -
1,000,000 -
0
Rosemount Apple Valley Burnsville Eagan Lakeville Inver Grove
■Total SF ■Occupied SF Heights
Source; MN Commercial Association of Realtors
A comparison of vacancy rates shows that retail vacancy in Rosemount was 8.28%as of 4th
Quarter 2013. This vacancy rate compares to 4.79% in Apple Valley, 7.78% in Eagan and 20.62%
in Inver Grove Heights. Compared to other communities in northern Dakota County, Rose-
mount is in the middle of the group in terms of its retail vacancy rates.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 33
RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS
Chart 11: Retail Vacancy Rates-4Q13
25.0%
20.62%
20.0% —
c
u
> 15.0%
c
m 9.55%
a 10.0% -`7
4.79% 5.53%
5.0%
0.0%
Rosemount Apple Valley Burnsville Eagan Lakeville Inver Grove
Source: MN Commercial Association of Realtors Heights
Average retail rents for space in northern Dakota County communities are shown on the chart
below. Average retail rents are highest in Eagan,followed by Burnsville and Inver Grove
Heights. Lakeville and Rosemount have similar average retail rents and Apple Valley is slightly
lower than Lakeville and Rosemount, most likely because of the significant amount of space
that is located in Apple Valley and its competitiveness.
Chart 12: Average Retail Rent/Sq. Ft.-4Q13
$18.00 - --- —
$16.00 -- --- ----- __
F $14.00
Z $12.00 - - -
u $10.00 - — —
„�, $8.00
c $6.00 --- - --
m
°C $4.00
$2.00 -- -
$0.00 -- --,-- -r- —,
Rosemount Apple Burnsville Eagan Lakeville Inver
Valley Grove
Source: MN Commercial Association of Realtors Heights
• Metro-wide, the delivery of new retail space has been flat over the past three years. The
ensuing recession has been particularly hard on the retail sector as retail development typi-
cally follows new housing "roof tops."
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 34
RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS
• After steadily increasing the past several years, retail market conditions seem poised for
recovery as increasing employment and consumer spending will boost demand for retail
space, The retail vacancy rate declined in the Metro Area from 7.3%at the end of 2010 to
6.3%during the third quarter of 2011. Regional centers posted the lowest vacancy rate in
the Metro Area (3.3%), while Neighborhood centers posted the highest(9.6%).
Retail Development Potential
Demand for additional retail space, measured in gross leasable space in square feet, is calculat-
ed in Table 9. The table combines demand information with supply to calculate the amount of
retail space supportable for the South Urban Gateway Corridor. Sources of data used in the
calculations include the Metropolitan Council and Maxfield Research Inc. (household growth
trends), ESRI (consumer expenditures), Minnesota Department of Revenue (retail sales data by
community). The demand calculation in Table 9 begins with an estimation of the total expendi-
tures for retail goods and services by PMA residents, excluding expenditures for automobiles,
homes,finance and insurance, and travel. The following points summarize the retail demand
methodology.
• Because of growth in the Trade Area household base and accounting for inflation,Trade
Area residents are expected to increase their overall retail expenditures.
TABLE 9
DEMAND FOR RETAIL SPACE
SOUTH URBAN GATEWAY CORRIDOR
2014 to 2025
2014 2020 2025
Retail Demand from Rosemount PMA
TradeArea Households 9,939 11,500 14,250
(times)Annual Household Expenditures x $21,619 $23,869 $26353
(equals)Total Trade Area Expenditures = $214,871,241 $274,494,913 $375,536,525
(plus)Approx.%Leakage Outside the Trade Areaz + 35% 32% 28%
(equals)Lea kage Outside of Trade Area - $75,204,934 $87,838,372 $105,150,227
(equals)Total Purchasing Power $139,666,307 $186,656,541 $270,386,298
divided b Avera esales perSq.Ft. $257 $272 $285
(equals)Total Retail Space Demand(S q.Ft. - 543,449 686,237 948,724
Growth 1n retail demand 2014 to 2025 405,275
(times)%of PMAdemand growth ca ptu rableb Site x 8% --to-- 10%
e uals: !Retails ace supportable in the Gateway Corridor(sq.ft. - 32.432 —to-- 40,528
1 Excluding expenditures for home buying,finance&Insurance,travel,vehicle sales.
a Leakage is the estimated amount of retail dollars spent outside the PMA,
3 2014 purcha sin ower is a uaI to the estimated PMA retail sales based on information from the MN Dept.of Revenue.
Note: The 20141 eakage factor 1s derived from subtracting the esti mated retails ales in the PMA from the totaIretailexpenditures
by PMA residents.
Sources: ESRI• MN De artmentof Revenue:Tax Research Dlvlslon;Maxfield Research Inc,
Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 35
RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS
• As of 2014,total leakage of retail expenditures from Rosemount is estimated to be at 54%,
indicating a significant loss of potential sales outside of the City. New retail businesses that
would locate in the South Urban Gateway Corridor and existing businesses that would up-
grade and/or improve their spaces could likely attract stores in the previously-mentioned
retail categories where leakage exists as the local population grows and development ex-
pands in the community.
• We anticipate that as new retail square footage and new uses would be added to the
community that leakage of sales from Rosemount would decrease to 28% by 2025. It may
be difficult to reduce leakage beyond this level due to the strong pull of the concentration
of retail in Apple Valley.
• Considering the forecast age distribution and household incomes of the local population,
store types with high potential include: General Merchandise retailers, Food and Beverage
outlets,and Sporting Goods Equipment stores.
• Data indicates that, while surpluses exist in a few categories, retailers that would consider
locating in Rosemount should be able to capture sales that are currently being transacted
outside of community.
• The household base in the community is expected to grow substantially over the next 20
years, but also show considerable growth over the next ten years. The result will be growth
in retail expenditures by local Trade Area residents of$130.7 million over the next ten
yea rs.
• The current leakage of retail sales, growth in the number of households, and increased
retail expenditures by residents results in total "purchasing power"--or retail sales in the
PMA—of$270.4 million by 2025.
• Dividing purchasing power by average retail sales per square foot equates to total demand
for about 543,000 square feet of retail space in the PMA in 2014, increasing to about
948,000 square feet in 2025.
• We estimate that the subject property can capture 8%to 10%of the growth in retail de-
mand between 2014 and 2020 and additional demand between 2020 and 2025.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 36
OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT
Introduction
This section presents and analyzes information relating to the condition of the local office
market and the potential for future office development in the South Urban Gateway Corridor.
The potential for new office development in Rosemount and in the Corridor is influenced by
overall market conditions in the Trade Area,also referred to as the Market Area.
Information analyzed in this section includes total number of business establishments that use
office space in Rosemount and in the South Urban Gateway Corridor and information on the
supply of office space,vacancy rates and average lease rates in Rosemount and in surrounding
northern Dakota County communities.
Business Establishment Growth
The following charts show growth in business establishments for Zip Code 55068,the primary
Zip Code for the City of Rosemount.
Business Establishment Growth in Rosemount
As shown on the chart below,the largest number of businesses that primarily occupy office
space tend to be smaller with fewer than five employees. We identified a total of 118 busi-
nesses that were categorized as having between one and four employees. The next highest
category shows 32 businesses that have between 10 and 19 employees(32)followed by those
that have five to nine employees(19). No businesses were listed as having 100 or more em-
ployees that primarily use office space.
Chart 13:Businesses That Primarily Occupy Office Space
By Size of Business(Employees)2011
Rosemount Zip Code 55068
250
y zoo
CA
c
.7 150 18
fA
100
d
.a
E
Z 50 19 32
4 3 0
0
1 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 49 50 to 99 100 or more
Size of Business(Number of Employees)
Source: County Business Patterns
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 37
OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT
The chart below shows the number of employees by business size category for those businesses
that are primarily occupying office space. The largest number of employees, 416, is found in
businesses with between 10 and 19 employees. Although there are only a small number of
businesses with between 50 and 99 employees,the total number of employees, 195, accounts
for 17.5%of all employees that utilize office space in the City.
Chart 14: Employees Occupying Office Space by Business Size
Rosemount Zip Code 55068
500 416
450
N 400
d
e 350 266
E 300
W
c 250 195
200
119 120
Z 150
100
50 -- -
0
1 to 4 s to 9 10 to 19 20 to 49 50 to 99 100 or more
Source: County Business Patterns Size of Business(Employees)
Businesses Occupying Office Space in the South Urban Gateway Corridor
The following charts show the number of businesses in the South Urban Gateway Corridor that
occupy office space.
The chart shows that most of the'businesses in the Corridor that occupy office space have
between five and nine employees(ten businesses). This is followed by those with fewer than
five employees (nine businesses). There are no businesses that occupy office space in the
Corridor with 20 or more employees.
The second chart shows the total number of employees by business size for businesses in the
Corridor that primarily occupy office space. As shown,we identified a total of 148 employees
among the businesses that primarily occupy office space. These generally include service
businesses such as insurance, accounting,small medical, real estate,finance and banking.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 38
OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT
Chart 15: Businesses that Primarily Occupy Office Space
By Size of Business(Employees)2012
South Urban Gateway Corridor
250
H 200
N
W
C
150
m
a
E 100
0
Z
50
9 10 5
0 0 0
0
Ito 4 5 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 49 50 to 99 100 or more
Size of Business(Number of Employees)
Sources: County Business Patterns
Chart 16: Employees Occupying Office Space by Business Size
South Gateway Corridor 2012
500
450 - ----
400
a� 350
m
a
a
300
E 250
200 -
d
a
E 150 -
Z 100 - 20 65
50
0
Ito 4 5 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 49 50 to 99 100 or more
Size of Business([Employees►
Source: County Business Patterns
Local Office Market Conditions
The following charts show total occupied and vacant multi-tenant office space in Rosemount
and the surrounding communities.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 39
OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT
The following charts show the total amount of square footage and occupied square footage.
Eagan has the highest amount of multi-tenant office space among the communities in northern
Dakota County. Burnsville has the second highest amount of office space,followed by Apple
Valley. The other communities including Rosemount have much smaller amounts of multi-
tenant office space.
Chart 17: Multi-Tenant Office Space
Total and Occupied-4Q13
9,000,000
8,000,000 ---- —
7,000,000 --._ .� - --- - —---- ---
+, 6,000,000 -
m
w 5,000,000 _.—__--
m
4,000,000 - -- --
�' 3,000,000 - -- - -------
2,000,000
1,000,000 --- - -
0
Rosemount Apple Valley Burnsville Eagan Lakeville Inver Grove
Heights
■Total SF z Occupied SF
Source: MN Commercial Association of Realtors
Office vacancy rates are mixed throughout the area. The highest office vacancy rate is in
Lakeville at nearly 17%followed by Burnsville with nearly 16%. Office vacancies are lowest in
Rosemount at 0.0%. The office sector has for some time now been the weakest performing real
estate sector as compared to retail, industrial, and residential.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 40
OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT
Chart 18: Office Vacancy Rates-4Q13
18.0% -_--- -------- ---••46:$3"/u
16.0% 15.65%
c
14.0% —
X 12.0%
10.0% _ 9.40%
a 7.99%
8.0% -- -
a 6.0% -
4.0% -- - -- ----- 2:50%--
2.0% 0.00%
0.0% --•-°--
Rosemount Apple Valley Burnsville Eagan Lakeville Inver Grove
Source: MN Commercial Association of Realtors Heights
Average office rents for 4th Quarter 2013 are very similar to Burnsville,Apple Valley and Eagan.
Rosemount's average rents are somewhat lower, primarily due to the older age of the office
space in Rosemount, similar to Inver Grove Heights. The other communities have higher
proportions of new office space.
Chart 19: Average Office Rent/Sq. Ft.-4Q13
$16.00 - — - -- -
$14.00 --
Z $12.00 --—- - _- --
z $10.00 - —
$8,00
r $6.00 — — - —
e
$4.00 -- --- -- —
$2.00
$0.00
Rosemount Apple Burnsville Eagan Lakeville Inver
Valley Grove
Source: MN Commercial Association of Realtors Heights
Office Demand Projections
Table 10 shows the calculation of demand for office space for the South Urban Gateway Corri-
dor from 2014 to 2035. The table shows the projected number of jobs in Rosemount from
projected growth with an allocation of the proportion of office jobs that would typically require
office space.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 41
OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT
Job growth is projected to account for potential demand for about 89,000 square feet of office
space between 2014 and 2025 and another 100,000 square feet of office space between 2025
and 2035. We estimate that Rosemount could capture approximately 45%to 60%of the
potential office space demand between 2014 and 2025 and another 60%to 80%of potential
office space demand between 2025 and 2035.
Within the Gateway Corridor, demand capturable from the larger community demand would be
smaller,approximately 8,500 square feet to 16,000 square feet between 2015 and 2025 and
between 15,000 and 28,000 square feet between 2025 and 2035. The South Urban Gateway
Corridor space summary is found in the Conclusions and Recommendations section of the
report.
TABLE 10
PROJECTED DEMAND FOR OFFICE SPACE
SOUTH URBAN GATEWAY CORRIDOR
2014 to 2035
2014 2025 2035
Office Demand-Rosemount
Projected number ofjobs in Rosemount 7,996 11,300 15,000
(times)%ofjobs in industry types thattypically require office space x 20.09 20.0% 20.09/0
(equals)Projected number of offi ce-type jobs in Rosemount — 1,599 2,260 3,000
(times)V.of office-type jobs seeking/needingofficespace* x 75% 75% 75%
(equals)Projected#ofemployees in officespace in Rosemount = 1,199 1,695 2,250
times Square feet of offices ace per employee x 180 180 180
(equals)Projected demand for offices ace in Rosemount(s q.ft.)_ — 215,89Z 305,100 405,000
Growth In office demand(2014 to 2035) 89,208 99,900
(times)%of demand growth capturable by Gateway Corridor 45% - 60% 609'.-80%
(equals)Offices ace supportable on subject property(s q,ft.) 40,144 - 53,525 59;940 - 79,920
* Percent of office-type jobs seekin offices ace versus homeofficesor retail spaces.
Source: Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 42
INDUSTRIAL MARKET ASSESSMENT
Introduction
This section presents and analyzes information relating to the condition of the local industrial
market and the potential for future industrial development in the South Urban Gateway Corri-
dor. The potential for new industrial development in Rosemount and in the Corridor is influ-
enced by overall market conditions in the Trade Area, also referred to as the Market Area.
Information analyzed in this section includes total amount of industrial space occupied and
total supply,vacancies and average lease rates for industrial space among the communities in
northern Dakota County.
Local Industrial Market Conditions
The chart below shows that Eagan has the highest amount of total industrial and occupied
industrial space among the communities,followed by Burnsville and Lakeville. Rosemount has
more total and occupied industrial space than Apple Valley and slightly more than Inver Grove
Heights.
Chart 20: Industrial Space
Total and Occupied Square Feet-4Q13
14,000,000 --
12,000,000 — --
10,000,000 -------
8,000,000 -- --
6,000,000
Cr
Ln
4,000,000
2,000,000 - — — - -- -
0
Rosemount Apple Valley Burnsville Eagan Lakeville Inver Grove
Heights
■Total SF ■Occupied SF
Source: MN Commercial Association of Realtors
The following chart shows the industrial vacancy rates for Rosemount and the surrounding
northern Dakota County communities.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 43
INDUSTRIAL MARKET ASSESSMENT
The information shows that the lowest industrial vacancy rate is found in Apple Valley followed
by Burnsville and then Rosemount. Conversely,the highest industrial vacancy rate was in Inver
Grove Heights at 24.45%.
Chart 21: Industrial Vacancy Rates-4Q13
30.0% -------
25.0% 24.45%
C
20.0% _ --11.44% -----
v 15.0%
L' 10.14%
a 10.0% - — 8'77%
5.0% 3.93%
0.0%
Rosemount Apple Valley Burnsville Eagan Lakeville Inver Grove
Source: MN Commercial Association of Realtors Heights
The highest lease rates for industrial space are found in Burnsville,followed by Apple Valley and
Lakeville. Again,a higher proportion of new industrial space is likely the result of the highest
lease rates. However, Eagan's lease rates are somewhat lower despite also having a high
proportion of new space. In industrial market in Eagan is likely experiencing a higher level of
competition among various buildings resulting in some discounting of industrial lease rates.
Chart 22: Low/High Industrial Rent/Sq. Ft.-4Q13
$18.00 -- -
$16.00 --- — -------
$14.00
LL $12.00 --— - - ---
N $10.00
$8.00 — -
CU
a $6.00
$4.00
$2.00 --
$0.00
Rosemount Apple Valley Burnsville Eagan Lakeville Inver Grove
■Average Rent Low ■Average Rent High Heights
Source: MN Commercial Association of Realtors
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 44
INDUSTRIAL MARKET ASSESSMENT
Industrial Demand Potential
Industrial demand calculations are found on Table 11. Industrial demand is calculated by
considering the proportion of jobs in the community that are found in industrial businesses and
allocating that proportion to total job growth. As shown,the amount of industrial space
demand projected as capturable in the South Urban Gateway Corridor ranges from about
124,000 to 248,000 square feet of space between 2014 and 2025 and another 278,000 to
370,000 square feet of space between 2025 and 2035.
We note that these figures represent the optimal amount that could be captured. Analysis of
the number of sites and space available should be given consideration in regard to optimizing
the potential demand for commercial space in the Corridor. The demand for industrial space
would not be in addition to but would be instead of the amounts shown for office and retail.
TABLE 11
PROJECTED DEMAND FOR INDUSTRIAL
SOUTH URBAN GATEWAY CORRIDOR
2014 to 2035
2014 2025 2035
Office Demand-Rosemount
Projected number of jobs in Rosemount 7,996 11,300 15,000
(times)%of jobs in industrytypes thattypically require industrial space x 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
(equals)Projected number of Industrial-type jobs in Rosemount = 1,999 2,825 3,750
(times)9'oof industrial-type jobs seeking/needing industrial space* x 100% 100% 100%
(equals)Projected#of employees in industrial space In Rosemount = 1,999 2,825 3,750
times S uarefeetofindustrials ace per employee x 500 S00 500
(equals)Projected demand for industrials ace in Rosemount(s q.ft. 999,500 1/112,500 1,875,000
Growth in industrial space demand(2014 to 2035) 413,000 462,500
(times)%of demand growth capturable by Gateway Corridor 30% - 60% 60%-80%
(equals)Industrial.space supportable on Gateway property sq.ft. 123,900 - 247,800 277,500 - 370,000
Source: Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 45
SOUTH URBAN GATEWAY CORRIDOR
Introduction
This section discusses feature of the South Urban Gateway Corridor parcels and their potential
for redevelopment.
Land Values
Table 12 shows sample land values by use type for Rosemount and surrounding northern
Dakota County communities. As shown on the table, Rosemount's land values have a range
similar to that for Burnsville, but below that of Apple Valley for retail and office. Again, lower
land values likely reflect the older age of most properties and the current potential demand for
space. With the economic recovery,land values are already rising again. The low end of the
range value range is lowest in Rosemount while the high end of the range is equal to the high
end of the range in Burnsville for retail values. Office values in Rosemount are about equal to
Burnsville and Eagan on the low end of the range and have a limited range compared to the
other surrounding communities. We would expect that as Rosemount increases its household
base,that land values should rise commensurate with increased demand for new development.
TABLE 12
SAMPLE LAND VALUES BY USE TYPE
2013 Sample Land Values
Retail Office
Rosemount $4.00-$11.01 $4.50-$5.25
Apple Valley $10.50-$13.49 $6.25-$8.24
Burnsville $6.00-$11.00 $4.00-$10.00
Eagan $8.87-$13.98 $4.00-$10.15
Lakeville $9.00-$16.06 $2.00-$8,50
Inver Grove Heights $5.50-$9.04 $4.35-$9.02
Source; Dakota County Assessor
The map on the following page shows land values for parcels in the South Urban Gateway
Corridor. As shown, land values are highest along County Road 42 and reflect the parcels that
are developed with retail and office uses, but primarily retail uses. Parcels to the southeast
have the lowest land values and reflect primarily agricultural and industrial uses.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 46
SOUTH URBAN GATEWAY CORRIDOR
Map 9: South Urban Gateway Corridor-Land Values/Square Foot
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Building Values
The following map shows building values per square foot for parcels in the South Urban Gate-
way Corridor. As shown, building values are highest for properties that are located along
County Road 42. Building values in yellow and green highlight properties that may have the
potential to be considered for redevelopment in the short-term.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 47
SOUTH URBAN GATEWAY CORRIDOR
Map 10: South Urban Gateway Corridor Building Values/Square Foot
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 48
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Introduction
The previous sections focused on the"demand" and "supply"factors for various real estate
sectors. Estimates of demand for retail, office and industrial uses in the South Urban Gateway
Corridor are based on projected growth for Rosemount and the immediate surrounding area,
changing demographic patterns, and projected market conditions for each real estate segment.
Conclusions and Recommendations
The following provides a summary of our findings and presents amounts of square footage
supportable for the South Urban Gateway Corridor along with suggested timeframes for
redevelopment for groups of properties.
• The South Urban Gateway Corridor has several characteristics that make it a strong com-
mercial district with potential for redevelopment.
— Strong anticipated population growth across all age cohorts in Rosemount will create
opportunities for a variety of retail and commercial space in the community.
— The 2013 median income in Rosemount is high ($77,178) and is higher than that for Da-
kota County although the County's median income is expected to catch up over the next
five years. Rosemount would have the capability to pull ahead of the County again
through continued development of more upper market single-family homes. However,
Rosemount is relatively affluent compared to the Metro Area, suggesting that house-
holds have more resources to devote toward retail services and goods.
— The South Urban Gateway Corridor is sandwiched between two major thoroughfares,
County Road 42 and County Road 46, providing the area with high visibility and high
traffic counts from these roadways. This will be attractive to potential retailers.
-- The Site is situated in a solid existing retail trade area with high incomes, and it is sur-
rounded by other commercial uses.
• While the local market has been sluggish, it is exhibiting signs of improvement.
— After steadily increasing the past several years, retail market conditions seem poised for
recovery as increasing employment and consumer spending will boost demand for retail
space. The retail vacancy rate declined in the Metro Area to 6.3%during the third quar-
ter of 2011. Regional centers posted the lowest vacancy rate in the Metro Area (3.3°0),
while Neighborhood centers posted the highest(9.690.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 49
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
• Consumer spending and retail sales trends in Rosemount support the perception that
Rosemount is "under-retailed".
As of 2014,total leakage of retail expenditures from Rosemount is estimated to be at
57%, indicating a significant loss of potential sales outside of the community.
Examining consumer expenditure data with retail sales data,we note that the largest
leakage rates occur in General Merchandise, Electronics and Appliances,Automobile
Dealers and Food and Beverage Outlets with factors of up to 60%or higher leakage
rates. Leakage is occurring in other categories, but the above represent the highest.
Because of growth in the PMA household base and accounting for inflation, PMA resi-
dents are expected to increase their overall retail expenditures from $139.7 million in
2014 to nearly$270.4 million by 2025.
Inclusion of new retailers not already serving the local population will help reduce the
leakage factor in Rosemount as local residents begin making a portion of their purchases
locally that were previously made outside the community. Leakage will also be reduced
as residents from outside the area who will travel to the Gateway area due to the avail-
ability of a new variety of goods.
Office users at the site are more likely to be smaller users or health care facilities that
would serve the local population with needed services. Existing business service users
are already located in the South Urban Gateway Corridor. Additional uses could be sup-
ported to serve local business and service needs of the community as the household and
business bases expand.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 50
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Estimated Demand for Space-South Urban Gateway Corridor
Table 13 shows the estimated demand for space in the South Urban Gateway Corridor from
2015 to 2025 and from 2025 to 2035. Demand estimates are provided for retail, office, resi-
dential and industrial space. Following the table is a map that shows the suggested redevelop-
ment timeframes for properties in the Corridor.
TABLE 13
ESTIMATED DEMAND FOR SPACE
SOUTH URBAN GATEWAY CORRIDOR
2015-2025 2025-2035
Reta i I
General Commercial (Sf) 25,000 - 35,000 80,000 - 100,000
Specialty Retail 5f 3,000.- 5,000 5,000 - 15,000
Estimated Lease Rates (PSF) $16.00 - $20.00 $12.00 - $23.00
Office
General Office(Sf) 5,000 - 10,000 10,000 - 20,000
Medi ca I Office Sf 3 500 - 6 000 5,000 - 8,000
Estimated Lease Rates PSF $12.00 - $20.00 $18.00 - $25.00
Residential
Apartments (Units) 80 - 100 100 - 125
Senior Housing(Units) 0 - 0 50 - 60
For-SaleTownhomes Units 0 - 0 40 - 50
Estimated Lease Rates(PSF) $1.40.- $1.40 $1.65 1.65
Industrial
Office-Warehouse(Sf) 25,000 - 30,000 35,000 - 50,000
Warehouse(Sf) 100,000 - 150,000 100,000 - 200,000
Sing]e-User Sf 50 000 - 150,000 100,000 - 150,000
Estimated Lease Rates(PSF) $4.00 - $8.00 $5.00 - $10.00
Notes: Squarefootages shown reflect new space which would replace some
older space and/or increase thetotal amount of commercial space in the Corridor.
Corridor property is currently guided as commercial;Industrial is anticipated to
occur south of the Gateway Corridor commercial district.
Squarefootages assume that land area is availableto accommodate building sizes,
Source: Maxfield Research Inc.
Table 14 on the following page shows similar calculations/recommendations for the City of
Rosemount as a whole. Estimates for each time period are not cumulative but demand remain-
ing from the earlier time period may be added onto the next period provided that the space has
not already been captured elsewhere in Rosemount or in the South Urban Gateway Corridor.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 51
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
TABLE 14
ESTIMATED DEMAND FOR RESIDENTIAL UNITS AND
COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL SPACE
CITY OF ROSEMOUNT
2015-2025 2025-2035
Reta i I
General Commercial (5f) 221,565 - 360,145 461,084 - 500,000
5 eci a Ity Retail Sf 50,000 - 60,000 75,000 - 80,000
Estimated Lease Rates(PSF) $16.00 - $20.00
Office
General office(Sf) 35,000 - 50,000 60,000 - 80,000
Medical Office Sf 15,000 - 20,000 30,000 - 50,000
Estimated Lease Rates(PSF) $12.00 - $20.00
Residential
Single-FamiIy(For-Sale)(Units) 1,280 - 1,800 3,000 - 3,400
Apartments(Units) 400 - 440 355 - 380
Senior Housing(Units) 260 - 280 410 - 440
For-Sa I e Townhomes Units 800 - 820 685 - 750
Estimated Lease Rates(PSF) $1.40 - $1.40
Industrial
Office-Warehouse(Sf) 80,000 - 125,000 150,000 - 200,000
Warehouse(Sf) 200,000- 250,000 300,000 - 350,000
Single-User Sf 250 000 - 350,000 280,000 - 350,000
Estimated Lease Rates(PSF) $4.00 - $8.00
Source: Maxfield Research Inc.
Suggested Redevelopment Timeframes
The map on the following page shows suggested timeframes for redevelopment of parcels in
the South Urban Gateway Corridor. Parcels that are non-conforming uses and those where
land value ratios are the highest relative to the existing buildings and are not compatible with
an overall focus for the area of a commercial retail and service district could be considered for
redevelopment in the short-term.
Vacant parcels also may have higher redevelopment potential in the short-term as potential
users may view vacant parcels as easier to develop.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 52
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Map 11: South Urban Gateway Corridor—Suggested Redevelopment
Timeframes
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S ROSL:MOU1 V i Suggested Redevelopment rimeframes-2015 to 2040 N
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 53
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Financial Tools
Financial tools to assist with redevelopment in Minnesota have over time become more limited.
Tax increment financing is, however still widely used to support redevelopment efforts at the
municipal level.
Other tools that have been used in the past and could be considered include:
• Land Write-Downs
• Grants
• Low-Interest Loans
• Partnering with other County and State Agencies
• Essential Function Bonds
All of these tools have specific benefits and challenges, but they generally represent the best
methods of funding assistance for large-scale redevelopment.
Key Takeaways
South Urban Gateway Corridor
• Rosemount is projected to add more than 7,900 households over the next 20 years to
2030.
• Although demand for rental housing will increase modestly,we anticipate continued
strong demand for single-family homes in the community. This will generally bring more
families to Rosemount and larger household sizes, increasing the demand for retail
goods and services.
• Rosemount has a growing household base with a high median household income
$77,178-2013.
• There is a growing employment base in the community that includes higher proportions
of jobs in Manufacturing, Education and Health Services and Trade-Transportation-
Utilities. Many of these jobs pay higher than average wages.
• Retail service businesses in Rosemount are spread out across several different concen-
trations. Rosemount has a historic Downtown where a number of small independent
businesses have located.
• With projected high traffic volumes,the South Urban Gateway Corridor could attract
more commercial development.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 54
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
• Rosemount households are currently spending a high proportion of their retail dollars
outside of the community, most likely in Apple Valley.
• Retailers generally look for locations where there is a growing customer base, sites for
new stores(vacant) and/or locations adjacent to major anchors.
• Attracting new retail to the South Urban Gateway Corridor may require removing older
space to make property available for new construction.
• We recommend that you provide/offer larger size parcels for greater flexibility in at-
tracting new retail. This would mean combining smaller parcels to create larger devel-
opment parcels in the South Urban Gateway Corridor.
• The South Urban Gateway Corridor could be repurposed as a focus for a larger commu-
nity commercial center. This would require some site assembly and most likely waiting
for a larger user.
City-Wide Findings
• Coming out of the Recession,development interest is expanding, but is focused primari-
ly on residential and industrial development at this time.
• Retail and office development are lagging behind as technology is causing shifts in the
manner in which we purchase goods and utilize office space.
• Fundamentally, population and household growth will feed demand for retail goods and
services, but there will be greater emphasis on retail services than retail goods moving
forward.
• Retail development will evolve toward convenience nodes and central commercial dis-
tricts with higher concentrations of goods and services;the South Urban Gateway Corri-
dor has excellent visibility and access and is situated between two well-traveled highway
corridors.
• Industrial development typically fluctuates in demand; it is currently on an upswing and
there is greater movement toward bringing some manufacturing process and jobs back
into the US from overseas.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. . 55
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RQSEMOUNT Trunk Highway 3 Corridor Study
mmmE5oTA City of Rosemount, Minnesota
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