HomeMy WebLinkAbout2.b. Senior Housing Market StudyROSEMOUNT
City Council Work Session Date: March 9, 2011
CITY COUNCIL
AGENDA ITEM: Senior Housing Market Study
PREPARED BY: Kim Lindquist, Community Development
Director
ATTACHMENTS: CDA Market Study Excerpts
RECOM'VIENDED ACTION: Information Item
Castle Rock Township
Coates City
Empire Township
Eureka Township
Farmington City
Greenvale Township
Lakeville City
Randolph City
Randolph Township
Rosemount City
Sciota Township
Waterford Township
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
AGENDA SECTION:
Update
AGENDA NO.
APPROVED BY:
ISSUE
In 2010, the City Council discussed provision of senior housing in the Downtown. The anticipated
site was the remainder of the St. Joe's complex. Staff spoke to several senior housing providers
about the location and their interest in Rosemount. Many expressed some interest but asked for a
market study for the community. Staff had not pursued a market study given the CDA was
conducting a study for their use. Portions of the CDA study are attached for the Council's
information.
In initial discussions with the CDA, staff was under the impression that the Study would break out
Rosemount and Coates from the other communities. In the section "Updated Demand Analysis for
Affordable Independent Senior Housing in Dakota County" our market is only Rosemount and
Coates. What the study finds is that there is a demand for affordable senior housing in the
community. This is not surprising given the waiting list for CDA projects including Cameo Place.
The second portion of the report is estimated demand for assisted living and memory care.
Unfortunately this portion of the report did not separate Rosemount from a larger market area. The
market analysis included the following communities into the Lakeville Market:
The Study finds that in 2010 the "Lakeville Market" is oversupplied by 17 units for market rate
assisted living and deficient 34 subsidized assisted living units. Projected for 2015, there is an unmet
demand of 25 market rate assisted living units and 53 subsidized assisted living units. In 2010, there
is a deficiency of 14 market rate memory loss assisted living units and 33 similar units with subsidy.
That number grows to 29 market rate memory loss units for 2015 and 43 subsidized memory care
units.
These are issues raised by the information at hand:
Staff does not believe that the Lakeville Market used for the assisted living analysis is correct given
our close proximity to Apple Valley. We have asked for the Apple Valley information to see what
market forecasts are made about that area.
Nevertheless, Rosemount was included in the Lakeville market which shows a negligible demand for
market rate assisted housing. It is unclear that there is currently a market for another market rate
assisted living project, particularly since there are two providers looking at a new Lakeville project.
The information provided indicates that subsidized housing is needed at all levels: independent
living, assisted living, and memory loss. The CDA is the primary provider of affordable independent
senior housing. Given the study information there is a market for this type of housing in
Rosemount. The question is whether the City Council would offer the St. Joe's complex for a CDA
project or should a different site be identified.
We have no information on market rate independent senior housing. A market study would be
needed to evaluate the local demand for that type of housing. If the Council would like to pursue
that study, staff would recommend folding in assisted living in the report with a more localized
market than that used by the CDA study.
It is unclear if the current economy was factored into the CDA market studies. It does not appear
to. Would in the future, if the economy improves, there be an increased demand in market rate
senior housing of all types compared to what was projected by the market study? Currently seniors
are having trouble in the secondary housing market which limits the ability to generate income and
afford market rate assisted housing. If there is some belief that the economy is dampening demand,
the Council may wish to wait on the St. Joe's site until a market rate opportunity exists.
CONCLUSION
There are several action options available to the Council based upon the current information:
The Council can work with the CDA to construct an affordable senior housing project on the
St. Joe's property. At this time, given the project model being used by the CDA, it would be an
affordable independent living project that does not pay taxes.
The Council could commission a market study that incorporates the CDA data, modifies the
market area, and includes review of the demand for market rate independent senior housing.
Depending upon the new study, the Council could pursue an independent senior housing
project with some assistance or memory care. This may require waiting until the market is ripe.
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UPDATED DEMAND ANALYSIS FOR ASSISTED LIVING
IN THE LAKEVILLE MARKET AREA
FOR
)AKOTA COUNTY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AGENCY
DECEMBER 2010
Purpose of the Study
Dakota County Community Development Agency (CDA), Eagan, Minnesota
contracted with Health Planning Management Resources, Inc. (HP &MR), Edina,
Minne.ota, to complete an updated demand analysis to address the demand for
assisted living in Dakota County. The researchers examined the demand for general
and memory Toss assisted living. This section of the report focuses on the Lakeville
Market Area.
Preser tation of Analysis
he completed analysis is presented in the following sections:
Definition of the Lakeville Market Area
Socio- demographic analysis of the Lakeville Market Area and Dakota
County
Profiles of general and memory loss assisted living in the Lakeville Market
Area
Demand for assisted living and Alzheimer's units in the Lakeville Market
Area
Summary of Supply and Demand for the Lakeville Market Area
1
Definition of Senior Housing Types for Projecting Housing Demand
For the purposes of this study, assisted living is defined as follows. The
reader should note that "assisted living" is not a precise term that clearly defines
levels of care for persons who are in assisted living.
Assisted living is for very frail elderly persons with three or more limitations in
activities of daily living. Persons who need assisted living are persons who need
help in the daily management of their lives, as well as someone available 24 hours a
day for oversight and assistance. Persons living in assisted living are more likely to
have "unscheduled" needs that arise compared to more independent housing in
which persons schedule their assistance. Gerontology research has substantiated
that persons who have three or more limitations in activities of daily living are at a
degree of frailty that it is difficult for them to maintain themselves in the independent
setting.
If assisted living meets the above definition, e.g., 24 -hour staffing, it has
emerged as an alternative to the nursing home for many older persons. In the past,
persons who needed this level of service had no option other than the nursing home.
Persons coming to assisted living generally have at least two meals per day
provided and frequently, all three meals, have planned social and recreational
activities, housekeeping of their living units, and some assistance with laundry and
have assistance with personal care. Living units in such buildings vary in size and
have included one -room, two -room suites and apartments. Some include small
cooking facilities, e.g., microwave, sink and small refrigerators. In most newly
designed projects, and projects for the private pay market, there are generally
private bathroom accommodations for each unit.
Older persons who have moderate to severe Alzheimer's disease are
increasingly being taken care of in the assisted living setting, particularly those who
can afford to pay privately for this type of care. The assisted living setting provides
ideal circumstances for persons with Alzheimer's disease if it has specialty
programming for this population. Many persons with Alzheimer's disease do not
have health and /or medical needs that necessitate living in a nursing facility with 24-
hour availability of this type of care. However, these persons need to be in a
sheltered and structured situation. Many general assisted living facilities have older
persons who are in the earliest stages of the disease and do not present the risk of
leaving the facility unattended and are not a problem for other residents, e.g., going
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into their rooms, etc. However, when persons progress to the moderate stage, they
are difficult to manage in a general assisted living setting.
The reader should note the above definitions are based on general market
defiritions. These definitions are reflected in the demand section of the report. The
read ?r should also note these definitions are used in determining whether facilities
are classified as independent congregate housing or assisted living. This sometimes
differs from how the building administrator describes his /her facility and /or has it
licensed.
In May 2006. the Minnesota Legislature passed new language which went
into effect January 2007, which sets minimum requirements for any facility that
wants or wishes to call itself 'assisted living'. This new legislation defines the
minimum services that must be provided or made available by housing- with services
establishments or the service providers for those establishments. No facility may
call, advertise or promote itself (verbally or written) as "assisted living' unless it
meets these minimum standards requirements.
The researcher's definition of assisted living is consistent with the State of
Minnesota's definition of assisted living, meeting the provisions of the Housing -with-
Servics Contract Act, and requirements of chapter 144G and the Elderly Waiver 24-
hour customized living service package, which is distinguished from the housing
with -s€ rvices assisted living model by having awake staff (unless exempt) available
in the :Same building as the residents, to respond to the residents needs 24 hours a
day. SE ven days a week within ten minutes.
The reader should also be aware of other definitions and programs used in
the State of Minnesota.
1.i Minnesota, a Housing -with- Services establishment is a housing setting that
provide; sleeping accommodations to one or more adults. at least 80.0 percent of
whom are age 55 or older, and offer for a fee one or more health related or two or
more supportive services. Housing -with- Services establishments must register
annually with the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) as a Housing -with-
Services establishment. If they provide health related services, they must obtain an
appropriate home health care license from the Minnesota Department of Health, or
subcontract these services to a licensed home care provider.
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Group Residential Housing (GRH) is a state funded income supplement
program that pays for room and -board cost for low- income adults who live in a
licensed or registered setting with which a county human service agency has
negotiated a monthly fee. Room and board includes payment for shelter, fuel, raw
food, utilities, household supplies, etc. A person eligible for GRH can receive funds
of up to $846 per month to help pay for room and board costs.
The Minnesota Department of Human Services, through Title XIX Home and
Community Based Waiver funds, provides home and community based services to
elderly individuals who require nursing services and otherwise would be
instititionalized. Individuals most appropriate for this waiver include vulnerable
elderly individuals who have chronic health problems, which limit their ability to
function independently in the community. The waiver has two programs, Elderly
Waiver (EW) and Alternative Care (AC). Until the 2005 legislative session, persons
living in assisted living, who were income eligible, could access Alternative Care
funding to help pay for their care. However, legislation has been passed that
excludes use of Alternative Care funding in the assisted living setting.
Elderly Waiver is designed to pay for assisted living services in a Housing
with- Services establishment for people age 65 and older and are at risk" of nursing
home placement. Elderly Waiver (EW) is a Medicaid program that uses both federal
and state dollars. To receive EW, the resident must be eligible for Medicaid.
Services covered by EW include: homemaker, home health aide, adult day care,
respite care, case management, personal care, adult foster care, home delivered
meals, companion services, skilled nursing, licensed community residential services
(customized living services or 24 -hour customized living services), chore services
and special supplies and equipment, etc.
The participant's health care service plan, which is developed by the county
case manager and client, determines the actual amount of reimbursement under the
EW program. The State of Minnesota has established maximum monthly allowances
for residents on the Elderly Waiver program, but the amount received will vary for
two reasons. First, each county charges a case management fee, which is paid
directly to the county, and must be included as part of the monthly expense.
Secondly, the county only pays for services based on the exact needs of the
individual; counties do not reimburse by "packages" or "levels As of July 1, 2010,
the statewide maximum rate cap for a "case mix A" client, which is the lowest level of
need, using 24 -Hour Customized Living services, on the Elderly Waiver is $1,978. It
should be noted that the service rate limits are an "up to" amount, and is not an
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amount a provider can be expected to be paid or charge for packages of allowable
components of service. Authorized payments for customized and 24 -hour
customized living services are individualized and are based on that person's need
for each service, frequency of each service delivered, amount of each service and
the provider's qualification, ability and willingness to provide that service at the set
rate.
Providers, who are eligible, and contract with their county to accept Elderly
Waiver are eligible to offer EW customized living services. Customized living service
is a package of component services, which is designed for each qualified individual,
to meet the needs assessed by the County, of a person living in a qualified setting.
Component services that can be included in this package are: home management
tasks (meal prep, laundry, and housekeeping), supportive services (assistance with
appointments, money management or transportation), assistance with personal care
(dressing, grooming, bathing, eating, continence, etc.), assistance with medications,
delegated nursing tasks, and active behavior or cognitive support. The 24 -hour
customized living service again is individualized based on the persons needs, but in
addition to the components listed, includes 24 hours of supervision of the individual
to meet those identified needs. There has to be a documented need for the "24 -hour
supervision in order for this to be the case; the individual must require intermittent
or on -going assistance due to: assistance with toileting, positioning or transferring;
cognitive or behavioral needs; a medical condition that requires clinical monitoring;
or a need for medication management and at least 50 hours per month of
customized living services. The reader should also note, effective January 1, 2011,
persons receiving 24 -hour customized living services reimbursement will need
medication management, at least 50 hours per month of customized living services
and be dependent in at least two of the following activities of daily living: dressing,
grooming, bathing, walking or eating.
Providers who are eligible to provide customized living or 24 -hour customized
living services to EW clients must maintain a Class A or Class F Home Care
License, provide these services in a registered housing with services establishment,
or qualified setting, provide each resident with a way to call for assistance
effectively, employ staff that meet the designated requirements, and provide 24
hours of supervision (if 24 -hour customized living).
5
Definition of the Lakeville Market Area
The same market area was used for this update, as was determined by
Dakota County CDA staff and HP &MR in the 2005 analysis. The following zip codes
and cities were defined for the Lakeville Market Area:
Castle Rock Township
Coates City
Empire Township
Eureka Township
Farmington City
Greenvale Township
Lakeville City
Randolph City
Randolph Township
Rosemount City
Sciota Township
Waterford Township
The map on page 18 identifies the cities and townships located in the
Lakeville Market Area. The reader should note each of the cities and townships in
the Lakeville Market Area was contacted regarding existing senior services, as well
as future development plans.
6
Socio- Demoqraphic Analysis of the Lakeville Market Area and Dakota County
The following analysis presents selected socio demographic information for
the Lakeville Market Area and Dakota County. Dakota County was used to compare
with the dynamics of the Lakeville Market Area. The information presents estimates
for 2010 and projections for 2015. The population data available from the 2000 U.S.
Census is incorporated into the estimates and projections. The source of this
information is Claritas, Inc., Arlington, Virginia. Claritas, Inc. maintains an on -line
database that provides detailed socio- demographic data about the defined market
area. including current year population estimates and five -year population
proje :;tions.
Long -term demographic information for Dakota County through the year 2035
is al;;o presented. The source of this information is the Minnesota State
Demcgraphic Center, Minnesota State Demographic Center information is only
available on a statewide, regional and countywide basis.
Information taken from Claritas, Inc. and Minnesota State Demographic
Cente will differ somewhat. In the researcher's experience, Claritas, Inc. is a more
sensitive database because it is updated annually. Also, because of methods used
for est mating and projecting population, Claritas. Inc. is more likely to identify growth
trends or decreases in population than the State database. For example, the total
senior population for Dakota County in 2010 according to Claritas, Inc. is 36.598
persons, compared to 38.870 persons for Minnesota State Demographic Center in
2010. his is a difference of 2,272 persons.
Generi. I Population Trends
Included in this analysis are charts reflecting trends and characteristics of the
total population and the senior population 65 years of age and older in the Lakeville
Market Area and Dakota County.
The charts on pages 19 through 22 present an analysis of the total population
and senior population of the Lakeville Market Area and Dakota County. The reader
should rote the following:
7
From 2010 to 2015, the total population in the Lakeville Market Area is
projected to increase by 11,401 persons from 108,128 in 2010 to 119,529
in 2015.
From 2010 to 2015, the total population in Dakota County is projected to
increase by 18,944 persons from 400,203 in 2010 to 419,147 in 2015.
Long -term projections for the total population in Dakota County project an
increase in population from the years 2010 to 2035. Population projections
show a total population of 414,100 persons in 2010 increasing to 491,600
persons in 2035.
From 2010 to 2015, the total senior population in the Lakeville Market
Area is projected to increase by 2,997 persons from 6,645 in 2010 to
9,642 in 2015.
From 2010 to 2015, the total senior population in Dakota County is
projected to increase by 10,824 persons from 36,598 in 2010 to 47,422 in
2015.
Long -term projections for the total senior population 65 years of age and
older in Dakota County project an increase in population from the years
2010 to 2035, from 38,870 persons in 2010 to 106,430 persons in 2035.
The data on pages 23 and 24 show projections for the senior population as a
percent of the total population for the Lakeville Market Area and Dakota County. The
reader should note the following:
From 2010 to 2015, the senior population as a percent of the total
population in the Lakeville Market Area is projected to increase by 2.0
percent from 6.1 percent in 2010 to 8.1 percent in 2015.
From 2010 to 2015, the senior population as a percent of the total
population in Dakota County is projected to increase by 2.2 percent from
9.1 percent in 2010 to 11.3 percent in 2015.
Long -term projections for the senior population as a percent of the total
population in Dakota County project an increase in percent from the years
2010 to 2035, from 9.4 percent in 2010 to 21.6 percent in 2035.
8
Population Change by Age Segments of the Senior Population
An important consideration in an analysis of the senior population is the age
segmentation. Age segmentation is used to determine the use of nursing facilities,
assisted living, independent congregate senior housing and other senior services,
which are dependent on the age of the persons in the senior household.
Seniors age 65 to 74 are lower users of nursing facilities, senior housing and
related services, than seniors in the older age categories. Seniors in this lower age
category are able to maintain their own homes or condominiums, and /or spend their
early 'etirement years in Sunbelt states, at least during the winter months. Some
persons in this age category will move to senior housing as a convenience, e.g., no
maintenance and able to leave for the winter.
Seniors age 75 and older are much more likely to be at a stage in their lives
when they begin to consider housing options, including both independent
congregate housing and assisted living, and they have a higher probability of
needing to spend some time in a nursing facility. This is precipitated by the inability
to maintain a single family home because of increasing health problems, one or both
persons in the household becoming debilitated, the loss of the spouse, and /or the
inability of the remaining spouse (most frequently the female) to be alone and care
for a home.
Seniors age 80 and older have a higher probability of needing nursing home
care or assisted living services. At this point in their lives, some seniors feel more
comfortable and confident in their local community facilities with which they are
familiar. When seniors begin to experience frailty, some seniors who have moved to
Sunbelt communities decide to move back to their home communities, wanting to be
near family and/or having greater trust in the community nursing homes in the
communities they lived in for years.
Population change by age segments for the Lakeville Market Area and
Dakota County are located on pages 25 and 26.
The reader should note the following information:
In the Lakeville Market Area, the population for persons in all age groups
55 years of age and older increases between the years 2010 and 2015.
The largest increase in population is in the 65 to 74 age group, which
increases by 52.8 percent. The smallest increase in population is in the 75
to 84 age group, which is projected to increase by 29.2 percent.
In Dakota County, the population for persons in all age groups 55 years of
age and older increases between the years 2010 and 2015. The largest
increase in population is in the 65 to 74 age group, which increases by
36.8 percent. The smallest increase in population is in the 75 to 84 age
group, which is projected to increase by 17.3 percent.
Long -term projections for Dakota County indicate increases for persons in
all age groups 55 years of age and older between the years 2005 and
2035. The largest increase in population is in the 80 to 84 age group,
which increases by 328.4 percent. The smallest increase in population is
in the 55 to 59 age group, which is projected to increase by 27.6 percent.
Income of Senior Households
The income of the senior households in the Lakeville Market Area was used
to segment the demand, presented later in this report, into those who are able to pay
privately and those who will need assistance to live in senior housing alternatives.
The charts on pages 27 and 28, show the estimated income distribution of senior
households in the Lakeville Market Area and Dakota County by head of household
ages 65 to 74, 75 to 84 and 85 years of age and older, for both 2010 and 2015.
The income analysis for this update was segmented into five different
categories. For persons having incomes of less than $10,836, they would be eligible
for Medical Assistance and the Elderly Waiver Program.
Senior households with incomes of less than $30,000 (2010) and $35,000
(2015) generally need some type of assistance in order to access senior housing
alternatives. Thus, the demand projections, for assisted living, take into account the
number of households who can pay privately, e.g., incomes of $30,000 or greater,
and those persons that will need help, e.g., incomes of less than $30,000.
The reader should note the following:
Households with incomes of less than S30,000 are most often widowed
females, who rely on a low social security payment and have few assets.
Senior income data does not reflect assets seniors may have that they
can use for health care and related services. The single largest asset most
seniors have is the single fancily home, which is typically paid for.
In 2010. the percentage of households in the Lakeville Market Area with
head of household 65 to 74 years of age and having incomes of S30,000
or greater, e.g. able to pay privately. is 75.9 percent. The percentage of
households with head of household 75 to 84 years of age and having
incomes of $30.000 or greater is 57.9 percent and the percent of
households with head of household 85 years of age and older and having
incomes of $30,000 or greater is 49.9 percent. For Dakota County, the
percentages are 74.4, 54.9 and 46.3. respectively.
In 2015, the percentage of households in the Lakeville Market Area with
head of household 65 to 74 years of age and having incomes of $35,000
or greater, e.g. able to pay privately, is 75.7 percent. The percentage of
households with head of household 75 to 84 years of age and having
incomes of $35,000 or greater is 59.1 percent and the percent of
households with head of household 85 years of age and older and having
incomes of $35,000 or greater is 50.5 percent. For Dakota County, the
percentages are 72.0, 51.9 and 44.1, respectively.
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Profiles of General and Memory Loss Assisted Living in the Lakeville Market
Area
Overview
This analysis presents profiles of general and memory loss assisted living
facilities in the Lakeville Market Area.
There is a brief description of the facilities, the total number of units and the
average occupancy of the facilities in the Lakeville Market Area. The detailed data
relies on information received in telephone calls to the facilities; thus, the researcher
is conveying this information with the expectation it is accurate. The researchers
experienced reluctance by some facilities to participate in the inventory process.
These facilities either did not return phone calls to the researchers or refused to
participate. Information listed for these facilities was taken from previous research
completed in the areas or from public senior directories.
The information describing planned developments is based on the amount of
information that was available at the time of the study and what various contacts
were willing to share. Each city in the Lakeville Market Area was called to inquire
about any new developments that had been discussed with them or presented.
Calling various contacts and inquiring about their plans for expanding identified the
information for new developments. In addition, when the profiled facilities were
contacted, they were asked about their plans for the future.
Assisted Living Facilities
Detailed profiles of the general and memory loss assisted living facilities in
the Lakeville Market Area can be viewed on pages 29 through 32.
General Assisted Living
There are seven general assisted living facilities located in the Lakeville
Market Area. These seven facilities have a total of 127 units and were 48.2 percent
occupied at the time of contact.
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Memory Loss Assisted Living Facilities
There are two memory loss specific assisted living facilities located in the
Lakeville Market Area. These two facilities have a total of 29 units and were 100.0
percent occupied at the time of contact.
Planned Developments for Assisted Living
The contact for the City of Lakeville spoke of two separate projects, both
in the concept stages at this point. The first is for 93 units of senior
housing, which would include general and memory loss assisted living and
independent housing, located at County Road 46 and Apollo in Lakeville.
This project would be with Hosanna Church and Ebenezer. The second
project would be with Kingsley and Southview Senior Living and include
101 units of senior housing, including general and memory loss assisted
living, and would be located at County Road 5 and Clement Trail in
Lakeville. No further information was available and no finalized plans have
been approved.
0 There are no other known plans for development of assisted living in
Dakota County at this time.
Deman :i for General Assisted Living and Alzheimer's Units in the Lakeville
Market Area
Cverview
T its section of the analysis presents the demand for general assisted living
units and Alzheimer's units in the Lakeville Market Area. The assumptions that were
used to calculate the demand. as well as demand by income levels are also
presented.
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General Assisted Living Demand
The assisted living demand, which is segmented by income, took the
following issues into consideration.
Very frail elderly persons are those persons projected to have three or
more limitations in their activities of daily living. Based on gerontology
research, these persons are most likely to be in need of assistance in
managing their lives on a day -to -day basis, e.g., 24 -hour staffing. In the
past, these persons would need to be in a nursing home. However, as
assisted living alternatives have developed, more of these persons can be
taken care of in a residential /assisted living setting.
Based on industry standards for estimating demand, we can anticipate
that approximately 30 percent of these persons will be willing to move to
an assisted living setting for the very frail elderly.
The table on page 33 presents the general assisted living demand
projecticns, which are segmented by income.
In 2010, using the previous analysis that adjusts for homeownership, there
is an estimated demand for 17 units of assisted living for persons with
incomes below $15,000, 13 units for persons with incomes between
$15,000 and $29,999 and 71 units for persons with incomes above
$30,000.
In 2015, using the previous analysis that adjusts for homeownership, there
is an estimated demand for 19 units of assisted living for persons with
incomes below $15,000, 25 units for persons with incomes between
$15,000 and $34,999 and 100 units for persons with incomes above
$35,000.
Demand for Alzheimer's and Other Forms of Dementia
The table on page 34 presents the anticipated number of persons with
moderate to severe Alzheimer's disease in the Lakeville Market Area in 2010 and
2015. The following assumptions were used:
14
Based on research completed by the Alzheimer's and Related Disorders
Association, approximately 30 percent of persons with the disease will
need to be cared for outside of the home in either assisted living or
nursing facilities.
Persons with incomes of Tess than $35,000 will need some assistance in
paying for their care, and persons with incomes of S35,000 or greater will
be able to pay privately for their care.
Supply Allocation
The analysis shown on the chart on page 35 assumes that 60.0 percent of
the market rate demand will live in assisted living and 40.0 percent of the
subsidized demand will live in assisted living.
In 2010, the demand for market rate memory loss assisted living is 30 and
the demand for subsidized memory loss assisted living is 23.
In 2015, the demand for market rate memory loss assisted living is 41 and
the demand for subsidized memory loss assisted living is 30.
The reader should note the demand for Alzheimer's and related dementia is a
partial but not total overlap with general assisted living. Many persons in general
assisted living are at earlier stages of Alzheimer's disease but are not yet a problem
for managing or do not cause problems for other residents. In addition, the demand
for assisted living assumed persons will have three or more limitations in activities of
daily living, and some persons with Alzheimer's disease who need to be taken care
of outside of their homes do not have the defined limitations but need to be in a 24-
hour supervised living environment. There is no data available that quantifies this
overlap; thus, when considering the development of any project, allowances should
be made for the overlap. If memory care assisted living is available, many persons
prefer to have a family member move to that facility in the beginning so that they are
not facing another move when the person progresses with the disease and cannot
be accommodated in general assisted living.
Determining the total number of existing units and units that will be built and
properly allocating these units to their prospective cities and townships derives the
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supply amount. The total numbers of existing units and units that will be built were
allocated according to the researcher's definitions and are based on experience in
similar markets.
The researchers assumed that if a project were developed in the Lakeville
Market Area, 70 percent of the units would be filled by persons from this geographic
markit area and the remaining 30 percent would be filled by persons from outside
that market area.
The tables on pages 36 and 37 present the supply allocations used in this
ana1y: is.
Summary of Supply and Demand for General and Memory Loss Assisted
Livinc in the Lakeville Market Area
The tables summarizing the supply and demand for general and memory loss
assistE d living for the Lakeville Market Area can be found on pages 38 and 39.
,3eneral and Memory Loss Assisted Living
n 2010, there is an oversupply of 17 units of market rate general assisted
living and an unmet demand for 34 units of subsidized general assisted living. In
2015, t sere is an unmet demand for 25 market rate units and an unmet demand for
53 unit.; of subsidized general assisted living.
11 2010, there is an unmet demand for 14 units of market rate memory loss
assisted living and an unmet demand for 33 units of subsidized memory loss
assisted living. In 2015. there is an unmet demand for 29 units of market rate
memory loss assisted living and an unmet demand for 43 units of subsidized
memory loss assisted living.
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Limitations of a Market Study
1 his market study presents an analysis of a given market based on
experience in other markets and reasonable industry assumptions about demand. A
market study cannot predict what the actual experience in the market will be. Market
conditiois at the time of the facility's opening, unforeseen and /or unpredictable
events c.iccurring in the market, the quality of the product offered, the marketing and
management staff and many other events influence the success of a project and are
beyond the scope of a market study. The researcher also relies on other sources of
data, i.E Claritas, Inc., Minnesota State Demographic Center, 2000 U.S. Census,
and these resources are presumed to be reliable. Health Planning Management
Resources, Inc. is not responsible for errors in this data.
17
MAP OF THE DAKOTA COUNTY MARKET AREAS
DAKOTA COUNTY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AGENCY
EAGAN, MINNESOTA
18
1
Inver Grove Heights Market Area t Eagan Market Area
ic Lakeville Market Area Hastings Market Area
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POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE SEGMENTS
FOR PERSONS 55 YEARS OF AGE AND OLDER
FOR THE LAKEVILLE MARKET AREA
2000, 2010 AND 2015
DAKOTA COUNTY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AGENCY
EAGAN, MINNESOTA
Population
Percent
Ag Segment
2000
2010
2015
Change
Change
2010 2015
2010 2015
55 -64
4,220
10,279
14,493
+4,214
+41.0%
65 -74
1,974
4,455
6.809
+2.354
+52.8%
75 -84
974
1,663
2.148
+485
+29.2%
85+
317
527
685
+158
+30.0%
T tal 55+
7,485
16,924
24,135
+7,211
+42.6%
Total 65+
3,265
6,645
9,642
+2,997
+45.1%
POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE SEGMENTS
FOR PERSONS 55 YEARS OF AGE AND OLDER
DAKOTA COUNTY
2000, 2010 AND 2015
DAKOTA COUNTY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AGENCY
EAGAN, MINNESOTA
Population
Percent
Age :iegment
2000
2010
2015
Change
Change
2010 -2015
2010 -2015
55 -64
26.137
45.711
56 731
+11,020
+24.1%
65 -74
14,842
22,382
30,626
+8,244
+36.8%
75 -84
8.502
10,423
12,228
+1,805
+17.3%
r35+
2,902
3,793
4,568
+775
+20.4%
Total 55+
52,383
82,309
104,153
+21,844
+26.5%
Tot 3165+
26,246
36,598
47,422
+10,824
+29.6%
Source: Claritas, Inc.
25
f i
POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE SEGMENTS
FOR PERSONS 55 YEARS OF AGE AND OLDER
DAKOTA COUNTY
2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030 AND 2035
DAKOTA COUNTY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AGENCY
EAGAN, MINNESOTA
Percent
Change
2005 2035
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NUMBER OF PERSONS WITH MODERATE OR SEVERE ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE
FOR THE LAKEVILLE MARKET AREA
DAKOTA COUNTY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AGENCY, EAGAN, MINNESOTA
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FOR THE LAKEVILLE MARKET AREA
DAKOTA COUNTY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AGENCY, EAGAN, MINNESOTA
Nursing Home
Demand
9 LOZ
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Nursing Home
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Assisted Living
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Number of Persons with
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Number of Persons with
Alzheimer's Disease who
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08
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Number of Persons
with Alzheimer's
Disease
191.04
168.00
Number of Persons
with Alzheimer's
Disease
95.99
56.73
29.79
29.75
37.13
01.02
<$15,000
$15,000 $24,999
$25,000 $29,999
$30.000 $34.999
4 Total <$35,000
$35,000
5 Total $35,000
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SUPPLY ALLOCATION
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FOR THE LAKEVILLE MARKET AREA
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EAGAN, MINNESOTA
Number Of Units Estimated
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O
Total Number Of Units
Subsidized
c
C
O
co
O
O
M
Q)
Market Rate
1...7•
-.7
t`
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(N1
814
/i ;ilped
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an
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y 5
a C
c
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TOTAL
a)
z
SUPPLY ALLOCATION
OF MEMORY LOSS ASSISTED LIVING UNITS
FOR THE LAKEVILLE MARKET AREA
DAKOTA COUNTY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AGENCY
EAGAN, MINNESOTA
Number Of Units Estimated
To Be Serving Persons From
The Market Area And Outside
The Market Area
pazlpisgns
O C7
I 0'0
Market Rate
Q C7
V l
CV
0
O o CO F- L-
F U Q
C j .O 4-
ca
C O
0 09
Number Of Units Serving
Persons From The
Market Area
Subsidized
00
00
0'0
Market Rate
99L
c
O .0 0 C7
u_
C d y es es
N O a) Q
a
%0 "OL
%0'0L
Total Number Of Units
Subsidized
0
0
O
a;ej ;a )tJe N
CJ
6Z
A ;Illaed
Highview Hills By Walker -Memor
Lakeville, MN 55044
Peaceful Mind Homes LLC
Rosemount, MN 55068
TOTAL
U
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a)
a
x
a)
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0
a)
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c
0
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0
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a)
U
SUMMARY OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
T; L.Ar:EviLL_t MAIKKET AREA
DAKOTA COUNTY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AGENCY, EAGAN, MINNESOTA
2010
0 E__. cn
W Z f/)
Z 2 O V
0 W
ti V
v Cl
v M
r M
SUMMARY OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
FOR INDIVIDUALS FROM THE MARKET
AREA AND FROM OUTSIDE THE
MARKET AREA
o C) a) m
Z S 2
N
y a) -o t a)
c ti l c0 a) Q
c0 2 co cv
E a) a) N Y
a) L Q f0
O O 2
O 1 7
r'
Q M
O cn a)
c0 F-- w
C a N Q
E (fj D .5 Y
Q Q C O (6
M
CO O
SUMMARY OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
FOR THE MARKET AREA
T f,
N d
C C d a) Q
E�a,a'
_o a) a) Y
Q o 0 2
c-) V
J
O
N
cn
C
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u) N co
a)
Z c -c
D
i c:�
N
0
c0
a LL co
General Assisted Living Market Rate
General Assisted Living Subsidized
Memory Loss Assisted Living Market Rate
Memory Loss Assisted Living Subsidized
be found on pages 36 and 37
from outside of the market area.
SUMMARY OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
rnR TI -IGI L1I( VIIIFanniD I T A�2�n
DAKOTA COUNTY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AGENCY, EAGAN, MINNESOTA
2015
I— 0 Ill Lij C.)
D 0 w
0
2
q co)
SUMMARY OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
FOR INDIVIDUALS FROM THE MARKET
AREA AND FROM OUTSIDE THE
MARKET AREA
m
3
e E z
Elk
2 04/
o-)
-o
2 A
n 2 272-
O
o O
CO
2
a r
/2
7- II
c
O O 2
\2
2 2
SUMMARY OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
FOR THE MARKET AREA
s k
=ca=<
e (1:3
e f
0 12
e
N-\
q/
ƒ n 7
0)
z
n e
CO
Q o
e
co
-o
2
General Assisted Living Market Rate
General Assisted Living Subsidized
Memory Loss Assisted Living Market Rate
Memory Loss Assisted Living Subsidized
2 The demand assumes 70 percent of the total units will be filled by persons from the market area and an additional 30 percent will be filled by persons
The number of units serving the market area were allocated according to the researcher's definitions based on typical market experience and can
be found on pages 36 and 37.
from outside of the market area.
Health Planning
Management Resources, inc.
Prime Professional Center
4970 Lincoln Drive
Edina, Minnesota 55436 -1095
UPDATED DEMAND ANALYSIS
FOR AFFORDABLE
INDEPENDENT SENIOR HOUSING
IN DAKOTA COUNTY
PREPARED FOR:
DAKOTA COUNTY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AGENCY (CDA)
EAGAN, MINNESOTA
PREPARED BY:
HEALTH PLANNING MANAGEMENT RESOURCES, INC.
EDINA, MINNESOTA
DECEMBER 2010
Market Areas
Market Area Population
INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
Dakota County was segmented into 15 market areas for the purposes of this
analysis. These are the same market areas that were used in the previous analysis. The
market segments are presented in a list at the end of this introduction.
The population and demand tables are followed by a detailed inventory of the
existing subsidized independent and congregate housing located in Dakota County.
Following the demand analysis tables, is a section regarding trends in the
development of senior housing in the metropolitan area. The researchers interviewed
key personnel at major metropolitan area housing developers, which included
Presbyterian Homes and Services, Ecumen, Ebenezer, Walker Eldercare Services,
Augustana Care Corporation, and Benedictine Health Care System. The purpose of the
interviews was to explore the trends that they are experiencing in senior housing
delivery, what their organizations envision for the future, and how is the provision of
senior housing changing over the next decade. That section summarizes conclusions
and /or specific comments that were made.
Table One is the total population of each market area. It is important to note that
the northern portion of the Northfield zip code is in Dakota County. Since Northfield is
not part of any of the market areas, the market area total at the bottom of the chart is
slightly le than the Dakota County total.
Table Two is the total senior population (persons age 65 and over) and the
senior population as a percent of the total population.
Table Three is the total senior households (persons age 65 and over) in each
market area.
1
The reader should note the following:
Total population growth continues in Dakota County. Dakota County is
projected to grow by 4.7 percent between 2010 and 2015. However, three of
the markets have projected growth of 10.0 percent or greater Greenvale,
Lakeville, and Rosemount.
The population age 65 years and older, is projected to grow by 29.6 percent
in Dakota County from 2010 to 2015. The highest percentage of increase was
in Lakeville, which increased by 57.4 percent. The number of seniors in
Lakeville is projected to grow by 1,823 persons from 2010 to 2015. However,
in both 2010 and 2015, Lakeville has the smallest percentage of its population
aged 65 and older.
Two market areas Greenvale and Mendota Heights have a higher percent of
seniors as a percent of total households in 2010, than the State of Minnesota
(20.6 percent). In 2015, four market areas (Greenvale, Mendota Heights, and
West St. Paul) exceed the State of Minnesota (22.8 percent).
In Dakota County, seniors as a percent of the total households, is projected to
grow from 15.1 percent in 2010, to 18.2 percent in 2015.
Market Area Demand for Affordable Senior Housing
Table Four reflects the demands for subsidized independent congregate housing
for the defined market areas for 2015. This assumes that six percent of persons
between the ages of 65 to 74 will access affordable independent senior housing, while
30.0 percent of persons over the age of 75 will use this option.
The demand reflects adjustments for home ownership, e.g., estimated income
realized from the investment of proceeds from the sale of a home. It also reflects
estimated demand for adult children who would relocate parents to Dakota County and
who would need financial assistance.
2
It 60 -unit developments are the average size of a development for Dakota
County ODA, 24.5 projects could be filled by 2015.
In a traditional market study designed to focus on a particular market in the
metropolitan market area, researchers commonly assume that 70 percent of the project
would be filled by persons from the market area and another 30 percent from persons
outside of the specific geographic area. If the evidence from the survey were not
available, and that assumption was applied to Dakota County, there would still be a
demand for 777 additional units of affordable housing in 2015, which would be 13
projects at the average size of 60 units.
3
Apple Valley Market Area
Apple Valley City
Burnsville Market Area
Burnsville City
Eagan Market Area
E:agan City
Farmington Market Area
Farmington City
Castle Rock Township
Empire Township
Greenvale Market Area
Greenvale Township
Sciota Township
Waterford Township
Hampton Market Area
Hampton City
Hampton Township
New Trier City
Hastings Market Area
Hastings City
Douglas Township
Miesville City
Ravenna Township
Marshan Township
Nininger Township
Inver Grove Heights Market Area
Inver Grove Heights City
Lakeville Market Area
Lakeville City
Eureka Township
DEFINITION OF MARKET AREAS
4
Mendota Heights Market Area
Mendota Heights City
Lilydale City
Mendota City
Sunfish Lake City
Randolph Market Area
Randolph City
Randolph Township
Rosemount Market Area
Rosemount City
Coates City
South St. Paul Market Area
South St. Paul City
Vermillion Market Area
Vermillion City
Vermillion Township
West St. Paul Market Area
West St. Paul City
Dakota County Market Area
Dakota County
TABLE ONE
TOTAL POPULATION AND
PERCENT CHANGE IN THE TOTAL POPULATION
2010 AND 2015
Market Area
2010 Total
Population
2015 Total
Population
Percent Change
Apple Valley
49,746
51,238
+3.0%
Burnsville
59,200
59,358
+0.3%
Eagan
64,708
65,888
+1.8%
Farmington
24,095
26,440
+9.7%
Greenvale
1,921
2,113
+10.0%
Hampton
1,705
1,793
+5.2%
Hastings
28,461
30,654
+7.7%
Inver Grove Heights
33,968
35,987
+5.9%
Lakeville
58,710
64,792
+10.4%
Mendota Heights
12,980
13,223
+1.9%
Randolph
939
988
+5.2%
Rosemount
22,463
25,196
+12.2%
South St. Paul
19,624
19,573
-0.3%
Vermillion
1,894
1,999
+5.5%
West St. Paul
19,063
19,105
+0.2%
Market Area Totals'
399,477
418,347
+4.7%
Dakota County
400,203
419,147
+4.7%
Source: Claritas, Inc.
The defined market areas for this study did not include the northern portion of
Northfield City, which is in Dakota County; therefore, the total of all the market areas
do not represent all of Dakota County.
TABLE TWO
TOTAL SENIOR POPULATION (65 AND
SENIORS AS A PERCENT OF THE TOTAL POPULATION
2010 AND 2015
0 0 0
00 CO
N N N
(C?`"). 0 0
(D N
r r N
0 0 0
0 CO
N N N
0 0 0
N O N-
N r r
0 0 'Cr.
CO r
r M r
0 0
CO N
O N
\o \o \o
0 0 0
N in CO
r N 6)
T- r
\o \o
0 0 0
CD N
1--: M M
r r
\o
0 0 0
O CD 1-
4 N 1.
r c
\o
0 0 0
co r 00
6) M o0
r r
\o \o
0 0 0
(f) N N
C) O
r r (NJ
\o 0
0 0
(D CO
Oo r
r
o o 0
�t N 10
6 O CD
X
0 0 0
r N
(D N
r r
0 0 0
O N d'
N O U7
r r
0 0 0
r (f) r
1- r r
r r
0 0 0
N 0 CO
N O 00
r r r
0 0
o o
CO N
1.: 6)
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0)
N: CO
co N
CO 10 N
r d (fl
CO N N
CO N.
(n O 1�
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a O Nr N
4 6 00
r r CO
N V ;',72.
6 00 1`
r CO
o o
CD (D
6 6
N N
CO 1
N 0
h .4' r
Cn 1� CD
N 0
r 0)
O N N
N
U) 10 0
CO CO 0
N W1 O
V' CO
(n 61 CO
(n N r
(n r N
(Ni N
N CO V
Nt CO CO
CO N 00
N C)
(D N
0 N
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r-- N
4
co 6) co
0 N
(D
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10 N,
r
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t7 V'
co co M
LO co (0
N O r (n
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M CO
10 10
M M
a)
70
a) N C
cts Q 0)
Q 7 (0
<COW
C
O m
C C Q
c N E
CO (0
L- (92
le
L
ZT
(T
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7
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1
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N 7
a) O
Q U
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CO 0
20
Source: Claritas, Inc.
TABLE THREE
TOTAL SENIOR HOUSEHOLDS (65 AND
SENIORS AS A PERCENT OF THE TOTAL HOUSEHOLDS
2010 AND 2015
2015 Seniors
As A Percent
Of Total
Households
0 0
N 1`-- r
I� 00 t1
r r r
0 0 0
CD r-- (O
CO CO N
r N N
0 0 0
CD 00 CO
r 00 C)
N r r
0 0 0
0 0 0
r CO r
N N (O
CO N r
0 0 0
0 0 0
r LO N
N N 0)
N N N
0
0 0
N N
00 00
r r
2015 Total
Households
A 0 CO
r Nr N
CO V LO
O) L()
I- N N
O) N
O) O) CO
0 N- CD
CA
CO N- CO
I- N N
Nr N 0)
r V O
r r N
CO r N
O L0 10
CO CO N•
LLB CO
N- 0) r
LO CO CO
N CO CO
CO CO
0 O
N r
CD 0)
00 CO
U) LC)
r A-
2015 Total
Senior
Households
N r LO
I- ti 0
CO U) (0
co M
N CO Nr
Nr CO Nr
N r r
r
N 00
CO CO CO
NrC003
N N N
V O N•
0 0) (D
I-- co
r r
tt LO 0
N LO CO
00 r Lo
r N
CO CO
CD CO
co O)
CO CO
N N
2010 Seniors
As A Percent
Of Total
Households
0 0 0
CO Lo CO
Ch Ln o
r r r
0 0 0
(O LO U)
o O)
r N r
0 0 0
0) (D r
00 Ln co;
r r r
0 0 0
O CO (O
O) CA ci
N r r
0 0 0
'Cr N 'I'
o O) r
N r N
0 0
0 0
r r
LO LO
r r
2010 Total
Households
O) CO CD
N 10 N
I. O CO
CO 'cr
r N N
r r 10
r r O)
N I� L()
00
O I■ r
O) L0 r
•cr N O
O co 00
r r r
O I,- N
r N N
r co It)
Ln
V fV 0
N- N
r co f—
00 00
co N
CO LO
N 10
O O
10 Lf)
r r
2010 Total
Senior
Households
O) O) I`
0) r LO
N• N. LO
N CO (N
Nr CO CD
U) Nt r
O) r r
03 CO N-
I- CO O
0) 0 O)
r N r
O cr LO
CO O N
NI- O
r r
O) CO N
CO N O)
CO r CO
r N
N NY
0) Nr
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N N
N N
eaay;a )iae j
A
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(2 as
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o
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a) Y
co co
=E_1
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lac
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(o
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c
co
2 0
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m
i Y
co 13
20
0)
0
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0)
.0
T
0
U
(o
0
03
0
t
U
U
a)
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0
Z
O
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t
0
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c
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O (13
C
0) Y
L (o
N
p
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0
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L (o
0
Y
f 6
E
a)
(0 L
-0 co
0) `4-
c o
a 10
1
a) N
I-
Source: Claritas, Inc.
TABLE FOUR
PRELIMINARY PRIORITY LIST FOR
SUBSIDIZED INDEPENDENT LIVING /CONGREGATE HOUSING (ADJUSTED FOR HOMEOWNERSHIP)
IN THE DEFINED MARKET AREAS AND DAKOTA COUNTY
2015
Total Demand
for Subsidized Units
Minus Existing Units
Plus Demand From
Adult Children Needing
Housing for Older
Parents)
M M LC)
CO LA 0
r C) N
N O h
h N r
LC) CO
N to r
r r r
CO O N
C) r 0
r
e- in LO
h r N
e- N
CO CO
er CO
r
N
0 0 C
":t C 0 4— d
3 d C C c6
1) '0 O C
L N cu
0 O Z 0 8
1 32
1...1 W
N- O CO
O N CO
N N N
't 0) (.0
CO
00 r N.
O Cr N
r r N
M 'Cr N
LO CO
(0 r
I I�
00 r
CO N
LC) LO
r a--
73 75
C N 7 C
co C
CI 0 y c
(y 0 y
O i• D X
I- 0 W
V' C01 r
c0 C0
1 r i
(NI 1-- r
a- r r
1
N- M 0)
r r 0
r
L() CO LO
r a
N- c0 N
'TT LO
N r
N M
N 0
r
CL
CL
:11
Ill
N CO LO
CO
Cr V
N r N
ti 0 0
0)
N 0) CO
r N
N r N
0 0 M
0 CO
r
0 0
LO N-
er r
0) 0)
V'
r r
N N
00 r
0) 0 00
r r
LO r r
00 r r
0) N r—
N CO r
(N r r
LO CO CO
CO 0)
CO c0 0)
O N
N CO
N` (0
N V
O O
N N
O d• CO
N C) r
O r o
r
cr r ti
r r
0 0
r
•t 0 N-
r- N
0 N
N- 0)
r r
rci LJ iiiaii
ery-Low, ar
ig Demand
Homeow
Very -Low
r 00 0)
0) (0 0)
r
CO CO (0
N
CO N LO
r OO CO
r
N e•
V' CO
c7 (0 CO
0) V
r
r N-
LO 10
0) 0)
O N
00 N (0
r
0) et LO
4
a) 0) LO
0) co V
0) N V
(0 LO
CO LC) CO
0) LO
r
CO N-
O 0
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easy ta»1 I/i
1
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(0
c
n E a)
C1 C N
<caw
C
O N
TO
E E
N (a
u 01
N
0)
CD
O a)
c O—
a) Y
(6 p
2 _J
N
a)
j
(a Q O
O O E
c 0
O co O
2rY cC
CO CIS
a C a
O
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O
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CO c
N O
0
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s- Y
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a)
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4)
a) N
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a_ a)
Q O
c E
cC
oo c
CL O
2 O
O
E
O
U N
C U
C N
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U
2
(D O
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2
o
O 4)
Cn
o
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Q
C
a)
N U
L
(0 w
CO
O 0
(B
L.)
O
O C
a)
as U
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a a)
Q
L LO
a)
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L
a) E
w
O O
Y C1
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0
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N -a
(0
m
N
Z
1 The income categories of <$20,000, $20,000-$34,999, and $35,000-$49,999 were used to calculate the demand.
The table was completed using 2015 population estimates for adult children.
PROFILE OF SUBSIDIZED INDEPENDENT AND CONGREGATE HOUSING
IN DAKOTA COUNTY
DAKOTA COUNTY CDA, EAGAN, MINNESOTA
DECEMBER 2010
trHVE 1 yr t) I�
Services /Amenities
Available for Purchase
Through Building
1 -Meal /Day, Laundry,
Linen, Housekeeping,
Garage: $50 /Month,
Assisted Living Package
for Purchase or A la Carte
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month,
Congregate Dining Site
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month,
Congregate Dining Site
Services /Amenities included
in Rent Package
Emergency Response System,
Activities, Scheduled
Transportation, Utilities
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Smoke Free Property
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Type of Room Available
179: 1- Bedroom
571 -818 s.f.
23: 2- Bedroom
728 -1,275 s.f.
6: 3- Bedroom
1,162 -2,000 s.f.
30: 1- Bedroom
661 -732 s.f
30: 2- Bedroom
858 -1012 s.f
41: 1- Bedroom
630 -650 s.f.
19: 2- Bedroom
900 -964 s.f.
32: 1- Bedroom
625 -700 s.f.
18: 2- Bedroom
750 -1,000 s.f.
37: 1- Bedroom
625 -700 s.f.
23: 2- Bedroom
750 -1,000 s.f.
03
L
CZ
CO
CO
01
0L02
LOOZ
9661.
I66L
Percent
Occupied on
the Day
Contacted
100.0%
(72)
12/2010
96.7%
(58)
12/2010
96.7%
(58)
12/2010
98.0%
(49)
12/2010
OLOZ /ZI
(69)
%£'96
CO
C.0
CD
LO
0
0
AlilPed
Apple Valley Villa
14610 Garrett Avenue
Apple Valley, MN 55124
Cobblestone Square
15847 Emperor Avenue
Apple Valley, MN 55124
Cortland Square
7385 157` Street
Apple Valley, MN 55124
Orchard Square
7375 157` Street West
Apple Valley, MN 55124
Eagle Ridge Place
12600 Eagle Ridge Drive
Burnsville, MN 55337
PROFILE OF SUBSIDIZED INDEPENDENT AND CONGREGATE HOUSING
IN DAKOTA COUNTY
DAKOTA COUNTY CDA, EAGAN, MINNESOTA
DECEMBER 2010
it (PAGE 2 OF 7)
Services /Amenities
Available for Purchase
Through Building
eUON
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month,
Congregate Dining Site
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month
Services /Amenities included
in Rent Package
Emergency Response System,
Utilities- Except Electric
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Smoke Free Property
Type of Room Available
42: 1- Bedroom
540 s.f.
46: 1- Bedroom
625 -700 s.f.
20: 2- Bedroom
750 -1,000 s.f.
30: 1- Bedroom
660 s.f.
30: 2- Bedroom
890 s.f.
44: 1- Bedroom
625 -700 s.f.
21: 2- Bedroom
750 -1,000 s.f.
29: 1- Bedroom
670 -726 s.f.
26: 2- Bedroom
800 -975 s.f.
4—
rd
Ca
L
ct
CD
9666
6666
b00Z
2666
800Z
Percent
Occupied on
the Day
Contacted
100.0%
(42)
12/2010
100.0%
(66)
12/2010
100.0%
(60)
12/2010
100.0%
(65)
12/2010
0 60Z /Z 6
(99)
%0' 00
:t
U
RS
CI
CZ
C I
'T
CO
CD
0
CD
LO
CD
LO
LO
A;llloe:
Ebenezer Ridge Point
13800 Community Drive
Burnsville, MN 55337
Park Ridge Place
Burnsville Parkway
Burnsville, MN 55337
Lakeside Pointe
1220 Town Centre Drive
Eagan, MN 55123
Oakwoods of Eagan
2065 Park Center Drive
Eagan, MN 55123
Oakwoods East
2061 Park Center Drive
Eagan, MN 55123
PROFILE OF SUBSIDIZED INDEPENDENT AND CONGREGATE HOUSING
IN DAKOTA COUNTY
DAKOTA COUNTY CDA, EAGAN, MINNESOTA
DECEMBER 2010
(PALit S Ulf) I�
Services /Amenities
Available for Purchase
Through Building
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month
8UON
auoN
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month,
Congregate Dining Site
auoN
Services /Amenities included
in Rent Package
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Emergency Response System,
Utilities
Utilities- Except Electric
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Emergency Response System,
Utilities
algellenv wool to edi(1
38: 1- Bedroom
625 -700 s.f.
27: 2- Bedroom
750 -1,000 s.f.
36: 1- Bedroom
600 s.f.
1: 2- Bedroom
625 s.f.
54: 1- Bedroom
6: 2- Bedroom
N/A s.f.
27: 1- Bedroom
625 -700 s.f.
13: 2- Bedroom
750-1,000 s.f.
109: 1- Bedroom
480 s.f.
Ca
2661.
£866
8L6•
£666
8L66
Percent
Occupied on
the Day
Contacted
96.9%
(63)
12/2010
97.3%
(36)
12/2010
100.0%
(60)
12/2010
0 60Z /Z
(6E)
%5'L6
98.2%
(107)
12/2010
tv
CS)
0
Am
O'Leary Manor
1220 Town Center Drive
Eagan, MN 55121
Red Oaks Manor
315 Spruce Street
Farmington, MN 55024
Spruce Place
300 Spruce Street
Farmington, MN 55024
Mississippi Terrace
301 Ramsey
Hastings, MN 55033
Oak Ridge Manor
1199 Bahls Drive
Hastings, MN 55033
PROFILE OF SUBSIDIZED INDEPENDENT AND CONGREGATE HOUSING
IN DAKOTA COUNTY
DAKOTA COUNTY CDA, EAGAN, MINNESOTA
DECEMBER 2010
(PAGE 4 OF 7)
Services /Amenities
Available for Purchase
Through Building
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month,
Congregate Dining Site
auoN
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month
Services /Amenities included
in Rent Package
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Emergency Response System,
Utilities
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Smoke Free Property
Type of Room Available
36: 1- Bedroom
664 -712 s.f.
27: 2- Bedroom
858 -942 s.f
38: 1- Bedroom
22: 2- Bedroom
819 -1081 s.f.
34: 1- Bedroom
625 -700 s.f.
17: 2- Bedroom
750 -1,000 s.f.
39: 1- Bedroom
540 s.f.
45: 1- Bedroom
715 s.f.
42: 2- Bedroom
930 -975 s.f.
III
CD
SOOZ
ZOOZ
t766 I.
LOOZ
600Z
Percent
Occupied on
the Day
Contacted
98.4%
(62)
12/2010
96.7%
(58)
12/2010
94.0%
(47)
12/2010
94.9%
(37)
12/2010
100.0%
(87)
12/2010
0
ccs
rD.
RS
0
CO
CO
CD
(..0
CD
In
CS)
CO
1
CO
Atllloed
1
Rivertown Court
1791 South Frontage Road
Hastings, MN 55033
Cahill Commons
5840 Cahill Avenue
Inver Grove Heights, MN
55076
Carmen Court
5825 Carmen Avenue
Inver Grove Heights, MN
55076
Prairie View Heights
8121 College Trail
Inver Grove Heights, MN
55076
Crossroads Commons
17725 Glasgow Avenue
Lakeville, MN 55044
PROFILE OF SUBSIDIZED INDEPENDENT AND CONGREGATE HOUSING
IN DAKOTA COUNTY
DAKOTA COUNTY CDA, EAGAN, MINNESOTA
DECEMBER 2010
i� (PAGE 5 OF 7) 1
Services /Amenities
Available for Purchase
Through Building
aUON
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month,
Congregate Dining Site
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month,
Congregate Dining Site
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month,
Congregate Dining Site
Services /Amenities included
in Rent Package
Utilities- Except Electric
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
1 Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Type of Room Available
23: 1- Bedroom
540 s.f.
1: 2- Bedroom
740 s.f.
34: 1- Bedroom
17: 2- Bedroom
920 -100 s.f.
44: 1- Bedroom
625 -700 s.f.
20: 2- Bedroom
750 -1,000 s.f.
28: 1- Bedroom
630 -690 s.f.
12: 2- Bedroom
930-1,021 s.f.
40: 1- Bedroom
664 s.f.
20: 2- Bedroom
804 -913 s.f.
30: 1- Bedroom
625 -750 s.f.
14: 2- Bedroom
750 -1,000 s.f.
CO
f
CD
9966
600Z
9666
0666
L666
CON
L666
Percent
Occupied on
the Day
Contacted
100.0%
(24)
12/2010
98.0%
(50)
12/2010
95.3%
(61)
12/2010
97.5%
(39)
12/2010
98.3%
12/2010
0602/Z6
(bb)
%0
CSS
'Cr
Apiped
Fairfield Terrace
20720 Holt Avenue
Lakeville, MN 55044
Mainstreet Manor
8725 209` Street West
Lakeville, MN 55044
Winsor Plaza
20827 Howland Avenue
Lakeville, MN 55044
Parkview Plaza
730 South Plaza Drive
Mendota Heights, MN
55120
Village Commons
720 Linden Street
Mendota Heights, MN
55118
Cameo Place
3103 Lower 147 Street
Rosemount, MN 55068
PROFILE OF SUBSIDIZED INDEPENDENT AND CONGREGATE HOUSING
IN DAKOTA COUNTY
DAKOTA COUNTY CDA, EAGAN, MINNESOTA
DECEMBER 2010
(PAGE 6 OF 7)
Services /Amenities
Available for Purchase
Through Building
aUON
Congregate Dining Site
Congregate Dining Site
1
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month,
Congregate Dining Site
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month
Services /Amenities included
in Rent Package
Emergency Response System,
Utilities
sa!l!I!ffl
sa!;!IUfl
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Smoke Free Property
Type of Room Available
38: 1- Bedroom
600 s.f.
1: 2- Bedroom
N/A s.f.
165: 1- Bedroom
N/A s.f.
132: 1-Bedroom
N/A s.f.
31: 1- Bedroom
664 -703 s.f.
25: 2- Bedroom
868 -1016 s.f.
28: 1- Bedroom
713 s.f.
12: 2- Bedroom
880 s.f.
30: 1- Bedroom
715 -835 s.f.
24: 2- Bedroom
945 -1010 s.f.
ca
£966
ZL66
6966
LOOZ
9661.
Opening
2011
Percent
Occupied on
the Day
Contacted
060Z /Z6
(6£)
%0
060Z /Z6
(996)
%0
100.0%
(132)
12/2010
100.0%
(56)
12/2010
100.0%
(40)
12/2010
Under
construction
CrS
6£
991.
01
10
"5
0
".5
v
Facility
Rosemount Plaza
2900 West 145 Street
Rosemount, MN 55068
John E. Carroll
300 Grand Avenue West
South St. Paul, MN 55075
Nan McKay
200 Marie Avenue South
South St. Paul, MN 55075
Dakota Heights
337 15 Avenue North
South St. Paul, MN 55075
River Heights Terrace
1720 Thompson Avenue
South St. Paul, MN 55075
Thompson Heights
1350 Thompson Avenue
South St. Paul, MN 55075
PROFILE OF SUBSIDIZED INDEPENDENT AND CONGREGATE HOUSING
IN DAKOTA COUNTY
DAKOTA COUNTY CDA, EAGAN, MINNESOTA
DECEMBER 2010
(PAGE 7 OF 7)
Services /Amenities
Available for Purchase
Through Building
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month
Garage
1 au oN
Underground Heated
Parking: $45 /Month
Services /Amenities included
in Rent Package
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Utilities- Except Electric
Emergency Response System,
Utilities- Except Electric
Emergency Response System,
Utilities Except Electricity
Type of Room Available
27: 1- Bedroom
625 -700 s.f.
15: 2- Bedroom
750 -1,000 s.f.
12: 1- Bedroom
4: 2- Bedroom
N/A s.f.
60: 1- Bedroom
550 s.f.
42: 1- Bedroom
640 -730 s.f.
17: 2- Bedroom
820 -1,035 s.f.
CO
Z666
9966
8866
t700Z
Percent
Occupied on
the Day
Contacted
060Z/Z6
(Zb)
%0
87.5%
(14)
12/2010
100.0%
(60)
12/2010
100.0%
(59)
12/2010
98.7
(2,067/2,095)
co
co
Zb
96
09
69
6b1`Z
A;illoed
I
Haskell Court
140 East Haskell Street
West St. Paul, MN 55118
Kruse Street Limited
Partnership
1275 Kruse Street
West St. Paul, MN 55118
Mount Carmel Manor
1560 Bellows Street
West St. Paul, MN 55118
The Dakotah
900 South Robert Street
West St. Paul, MN 55118
TOTAL
o
U g
N
m
C
to C
O
O _C
0
o a)
c
c6 2
U)
a)
o
o
N co
N v-
U
'5
(1)
U
c o
Q
O
(o f6
E
2
O
0
c o
a) c
E
c
co a)
a) E
c-
0
co a)
o
co
a) p
C �p
Q
p
Q1
C
N
O N
E
Y 0_
O O
O
a) 0
a p
5 c
(0 co
c6 D
U o
o c
co
c Er)
a) c
U) '7
o
0
o
-C 0
a)
E
Z
c
O
p
O N
D
co
0
O N
O
O 0
Cn N
1 Total overall occupancy information only includes those facilities that are currently open or were willing to give occupancy information.
Overview
TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SENIOR HOUSING
As a part of the analysis being done for the Dakota County Community
Development Agency, the researchers interviewed key housing personnel at major
metropolitan area housing developers. This included Presbyterian Homes and Services,
Ecumen, Ebenezer, Walker Eldercare Services, Augustana Care Corporation, and
Benedictine Health Care System. The purpose of the interviews was to explore the
trends that they are experiencing in senior housing delivery, what their organizations
envision for the future, and how is the provision of senior housing changing over the
next decade. The following are summarized conclusions and /or specific comments that
were made.
Baby Boomer Impact
Providers pointed out that the senior housing industry will not see the bulk of the
baby boomer demand for another 10 to 15 years, based on the average age of persons
seeking senior housing. However, the baby boomers are the decision makers for older
parents seeking senior housing alternatives. Given the financial setbacks experienced
by many of the baby boomers, demands related to amenities and services are likely to
be more modest for a segment of the population. While one recently opened project
reported that the larger two bedroom and three bedroom units were the first to fill,
another provider indicated that they used to have constant vacancies in efficiencies
which are now full with a waiting list, and the larger apartments are vacant longer. Some
of this is likely due to the location and the age of the building.
Availability of Affordable Housing for Seniors
Everyone commented that this is an increasingly difficult challenge. Existing
affordable housing is full and stays full for providers who have affordable housing.
Waiting lists are long. No one was optimistic about any significant change in HUD
funding or other related funding to help with the development of affordable housing.
Several commented that it is increasingly difficult working with HUD and very few new
units are available to be built in various communities. The Dakota County CDA housing
1
program was universally singled out as a tremendous asset for Dakota County. Some
expressed concerns that the Cities are Tess willing or able to provide assistance through
taxing mechanisms, etc. because of the financial pressure on local governments. This is
further complicated by the high price of land in the metropolitan area.
Persons anticipate that the need for affordable senior housing will be an ongoing
growing need with no ability to be able to meet that need adequately.
Senior Housing as the Community Hub for Services in a Neighborhood
Several providers are developing and /or implementing models in which the
senior housing development will serve as a hub in the community, and services
provided for seniors living in the senior housing will move out into the community and
provide support and services for older persons to remain in their own homes. One
provider emphasized that it will be important to complement and fill in the gaps with
existing community services to avoid duplication.
Impact of Government Regulation and Reimbursement on Senior Housing and
Services
Providers anticipate that State regulations and reimbursement will be focused on
assisting seniors to remain in their own homes (which includes affordable apartments),
which means that more home -based services will be available for persons living
independently with reimbursement available to pay for services to enable persons to
stay in their homes. Personnel at the Department of Human Services have frequently
expressed concern that older persons go into "expensive" assisted living, spend down
all of their assets, and then have to leave and go to the nursing home immediately
eligible for Medical Assistance, which is driving up the percentage of persons in nursing
homes who are on Medical Assistance.
Impact of Technology for Communication and Social Networking, Assistive
Devices and Monitoring
The impact of technology is and will continue to be significant, and new senior
housing developments should plan for this. This includes in- apartment silent monitoring
2
technology, various forms of assistance with equipment, etc. within the apartment, and
capability to interact with family and friends in other locations and to use social networks
to enhance the quality of life.
Work Force
When the current unemployment rate recedes, there is likely to be a shortage of
workers to match workplace needs. This will impact the senior services industry;
however, senior housing and assisted living is preferable to nursing home for the home
health aide/nursing assistant employee.
In addition, the work force has /is changing significantly, and will be challenging to
manage. Diversity of work force is a significant challenge in the Metropolitan area to
manage, and sometimes working with the elderly make it even more challenging, e.g.,
language barriers.
3
Eagan 'Vlarket Area
Eagan
Apple Valloy
Burnsville
UPDATED DEMAND ANALYSIS FOR ASSISTED LIVING
IN THE EAGAN MARKET AREA
FOR
DAKOTA COUNTY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AGENCY
DECEMBER 2010
Purpose of the Study
Dakota County Community Development Agency (CDA), Eagan, Minnesota
contracted with Health Planning Management Resources, Inc. (HP &MR), Edina,
Minnesota, to complete an updated demand analysis to address the demand for
assisted living in Dakota County. The researchers examined the demand for general
and memory loss assisted living. This section of the report focuses on the Eagan
Market Area.
Presentation of Analysis
The completed analysis is presented in the following sections:
Definition of the Eagan Market Area
Socio- demographic analysis of the Eagan Market Area and Dakota
County
Profiles of general and memory loss assisted living in the Eagan Market
Area
Demand for assisted living and Alzheimer's units in the Eagan Market
Area
Summary of Supply and Demand for the Eagan Market Area
Definition of Senior Housing Types for Projecting Housing Demand
For the purposes of this study, assisted living is defined as follows. The
reader should note that "assisted living" is not a precise term that clearly defines
levels of care for persons who are in assisted living.
Assisted living is for very frail elderly persons with three or more limitations in
activities of daily living. Persons who need assisted living are persons who need
help in the daily management of their lives, as well as someone available 24 hours a
day cor oversight and assistance. Persons living in assisted living are more likely to
have "unscheduled" needs that arise compared to more independent housing in
which persons schedule their assistance. Gerontology research has substantiated
that persons who have three or more limitations in activities of daily living are at a
degree of frailty that it is difficult for them to maintain themselves in the independent
setting.
If assisted living meets the above definition, e.g., 24 -hour staffing, it has
emerged as an alternative to the nursing home for many older persons. In the past,
persons who needed this level of service had no option other than the nursing home.
Persons coming to assisted living generally have at least two meals per day
provided and frequently, all three meals, have planned social and recreational
activities, housekeeping of their living units, and some assistance with laundry and
have assistance with personal care. Living units in such buildings vary in size and
have included one -room, two -room suites and apartments. Some include small
cooking facilities, e.g., microwave, sink and small refrigerators. In most newly
designed projects, and projects for the private pay market, there are generally
private bathroom accommodations for each unit.
Older persons who have moderate to severe Alzheimer's disease are
increasingly being taken care of in the assisted living setting, particularly those who
can afford to pay privately for this type of care. The assisted living setting provides
ideal circumstances for persons with Alzheimer's disease if it has specialty
programming for this population. Many persons with Alzheimer's disease do not
have health and /or medical needs that necessitate living in a nursing facility with 24-
hour availability of this type of care. However, these persons need to be in a
sheltered and structured situation. Many general assisted living facilities have older
persons who are in the earliest stages of the disease and do not present the risk of
leaving the facility unattended and are not a problem for other residents, e.g., going
2
into their rooms, etc. However, when persons progress to the moderate stage, they
are difficult to manage in a general assisted living setting.
The reader should note the above definitions are based on general market
definitions. These definitions are reflected in the demand section of the report. The
reader should also note these definitions are used in determining whether facilities
are classified as independent congregate housing or assisted living. This sometimes
differs from how the building administrator describes his/her facility and /or has it
licensed.
n May 2006, the Minnesota Legislature passed new language which went
into effect January 2007, which sets minimum requirements for any facility that
wants or wishes to call itself "assisted living This new legislation defines the
minimum services that must be provided or made available by housing- with services
establishments or the service providers for those establishments. No facility may
call, advertise or promote itself (verbally or written) as "assisted living" unless it
meets these minimum standards requirements.
The researcher's definition of assisted living is consistent with the State of
Minnesota's definition of assisted living, meeting the provisions of the Housing -with-
Services Contract Act, and requirements of chapter 144G and the Elderly Waiver 24-
hour customized living service package, which is distinguished from the housing
with- services assisted living model by having awake staff (unless exempt) available
in the same building as the residents, to respond to the residents needs 24 hours a
day, seven days a week within ten minutes.
The reader should also be aware of other definitions and programs used in
the Sta :e of Minnesota.
In Minnesota, a Housing- with Services establishment is a housing setting that
provides sleeping accommodations to one or more adults, at least 80.0 percent of
whom are age 55 or older, and offer for a fee one or more health related or two or
more supportive services. Housing- with Services establishments must register
annually with the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) as a Housing -with-
Services establishment. If they provide health related services, they must obtain an
appropriate home health care license from the Minnesota Department of Health, or
subcon`ract these services to a licensed home care provider.
3
41,
Group Residential Housing (GRH) is a state funded income supplement
program that pays for room and -board cost for low- income adults who live in a
licensed or registered setting with which a county human service agency has
negotiated a monthly fee. Room and board includes payment for shelter, fuel, raw
food, L,tilities, household supplies, etc. A person eligible for GRH can receive funds
of up to $846 per month to help pay for room and board costs.
The Minnesota Department of Human Services, through Title XIX Home and
Community Based Waiver funds, provides home and community based services to
elderly individuals who require nursing services and otherwise would be
institutionalized. Individuals most appropriate for this waiver include vulnerable
elderly individuals who have chronic health problems, which limit their ability to
function independently in the community. The waiver has two programs, Elderly
Waiver (EW) and Alternative Care (AC). Until the 2005 legislative session, persons
living in assisted living, who were income eligible, could access Alternative Care
funding to help pay for their care. However, legislation has been passed that
excludes use of Alternative Care funding in the assisted living setting.
Elderly Waiver is designed to pay for assisted living services in a Housing
with- Services establishment for people age 65 and older and are "at risk" of nursing
home placement. Elderly Waiver (EW) is a Medicaid program that uses both federal
and state dollars. To receive EW, the resident must be eligible for Medicaid.
Services covered by EW include: homemaker, home health aide, adult day care,
respite care, case management, personal care, adult foster care, home delivered
meals, companion services, skilled nursing, licensed community residential services
(customized living services or 24 -hour customized living services), chore services
and special supplies and equipment, etc.
The participant's health care service plan, which is developed by the county
case manager and client, determines the actual amount of reimbursement under the
EW program. The State of Minnesota has established maximum monthly allowances
for residents on the Elderly Waiver program, but the amount received will vary for
two reasons. First, each county charges a case management fee, which is paid
directly to the county, and must be included as part of the monthly expense.
Secondly, the county only pays for services based on the exact needs of the
individual; counties do not reimburse by "packages" or "levels As of July 1, 2010,
the statewide maximum rate cap for a "case mix A" client, which is the lowest level of
need, using 24 -Hour Customized Living services, on the Elderly Waiver is $1,978. It
should be noted that the service rate limits are an "up to" amount, and is not an
amount a provider can be expected to be paid or charge for packages of allowable
components of service. Authorized payments for customized and 24 -hour
customized living services are individualized and are based on that person's need
for each service, frequency of each service delivered, amount of each service and
the provider's qualification, ability and willingness to provide that service at the set
rate.
Providers, who are eligible, and contract with their county to accept Elderly
Waiver are eligible to offer EW customized living services. Customized living service
is a package of component services, which is designed for each qualified individual,
to meet the needs assessed by the County, of a person living in a qualified setting.
Component services that can be included in this package are: home management
tasks (meal prep, laundry, and housekeeping), supportive services (assistance with
appointments, money management or transportation), assistance with personal care
(dressing, grooming, bathing, eating, continence, etc.), assistance with medications,
delegated nursing tasks, and active behavior or cognitive support. The 24 -hour
customized living service again is individualized based on the persons needs, but in
addition to the components listed, includes 24 hours of supervision of the individual
to meet those identified needs. There has to be a documented need for the "24 -hour
supervision in order for this to be the case; the individual must require intermittent
or on -going assistance due to: assistance with toileting, positioning or transferring;
cognitive or behavioral needs; a medical condition that requires clinical monitoring;
or a need for medication management and at least 50 hours per month of
customized living services. The reader should also note, effective January 1, 2011,
persons receiving 24 -hour customized living services reimbursement will need
medication management, at least 50 hours per month of customized living services
and be dependent in at least two of the following activities of daily living: dressing,
grooming, bathing, walking or eating.
Providers who are eligible to provide customized living or 24 -hour customized
living S ervices to EW clients must maintain a Class A or Class F Home Care
License, provide these services in a registered housing with services establishment,
or qualified setting, provide each resident with a way to call for assistance
effectively, employ staff that meet the designated requirements, and provide 24
hours cf supervision (if 24 -hour customized living).
Definition of the Eagan Market Area
The same market area was used for this update, as was determined by
Dakota County CDA staff and HP &MR in the 2005 analysis. The following zip codes
and cities were defined for the Eagan Market Area:
Apple Valley City
Burnsville City
Eagan City
The map on page 18 identifies the cities located in the Eagan Market Area.
The reader should note each of the cities in the Eagan Market Area was contacted
regarding existing senior services, as well as future development plans.
Socio Demographic Analysis of the Eagan Market Area and Dakota County
The following analysis presents selected socio- demographic information for
the Eagan Market Area and Dakota County. Dakota County was used to compare
with the dynamics of the Eagan Market Area. The information presents estimates for
2010 and projections for 2015. The population data available from the 2000 U.S.
Census is incorporated into the estimates and projections. The source of this
inform ation is Claritas, Inc., Arlington, Virginia. Claritas, Inc. maintains an on -line
database that provides detailed socio- demographic data about the defined market
area, including current year population estimates and five -year population
projections.
Long-term demographic information for Dakota County through the year 2035
is also presented. The source of this information is the Minnesota State
Demographic Center. Minnesota State Demographic Center information is only
available on a statewide, regional and countywide basis.
Information taken from Claritas, Inc. and Minnesota State Demographic
Center will differ somewhat. In the researcher's experience, Claritas, Inc. is a more
sensitive database because it is updated annually. Also, because of methods used
for estimating and projecting population, Claritas, Inc. is more likely to identify growth
trends or decreases in population than the State database. For example, the total
senior population for Dakota County in 2010 according to Claritas, Inc. is 36,598
persons, compared to 38,870 persons for Minnesota State Demographic Center in
2010. This is a difference of 2,272 persons.
General Population Trends
Included in this analysis are charts reflecting trends and characteristics of the
total population and the senior population 65 years of age and older in the Eagan
Market Area and Dakota County.
The charts on pages 19 through 22 present an analysis of the total population
and senior population of the Eagan Market Area and Dakota County. The reader
should note the following:
7
From 2010 to 2015, the total population in the Eagan Market Area is
projected to increase by 2,830 persons from 173,654 in 2010 to 176,484
in 2015.
From 2010 to 2015, the total population in Dakota County is projected to
increase by 18,944 persons from 400,203 in 2010 to 419,147 in 2015.
Long -term projections for the total population in Dakota County project an
increase in population from the years 2010 to 2035. Population projections
show a total population of 414,100 persons in 2010 increasing to 491,600
persons in 2035.
From 2010 to 2015, the total senior population in the Eagan Market Area
is projected to increase by 4,877 persons from 14,395 in 2010 to 19,272 in
2015.
From 2010 to 2015, the total senior population in Dakota County is
projected to increase by 10,824 persons from 36,598 in 2010 to 47,422 in
2015.
Long -term projections for the total senior population 65 years of age and
older in Dakota County project an increase in population from the years
2010 to 2035, from 38,870 persons in 2010 to 106,430 persons in 2035.
The data on pages 23 and 24 show projections for the senior population as a
percent of the total population for the Eagan Market Area and Dakota County. The
reader should note the following:
From 2010 to 2015, the senior population as a percent of the total
population in the Eagan Market Area is projected to increase by 2.6
percent from 8.3 percent in 2010 to 10.9 percent in 2015.
From 2010 to 2015, the senior population as a percent of the total
population in Dakota County is projected to increase by 2.2 percent from
9.1 percent in 2010 to 11.3 percent in 2015.
Long -term projections for the senior population as a percent of the total
population in Dakota County project an increase in percent from the years
2010 to 2035, from 9.4 percent in 2010 to 21.6 percent in 2035.
8
Population Change by Age Segments of the Senior Population
An important consideration in an analysis of the senior population is the age
segmentation. Age segmentation is used to determine the use of nursing facilities,
assisted living, independent congregate senior housing and other senior services,
which are dependent on the age of the persons in the senior household.
Seniors age 65 to 74 are lower users of nursing facilities, senior housing and
related services, than seniors in the older age categories. Seniors in this lower age
category are able to maintain their own homes or condominiums, and /or spend their
early retirement years in Sunbelt states, at least during the winter months. Some
persons in this age category will move to senior housing as a convenience, e.g., no
maintenance and able to leave for the winter.
Seniors age 75 and older are much more likely to be at a stage in their lives
when they begin to consider housing options, including both independent
congregate housing and assisted living, and they have a higher probability of
needing to spend some time in a nursing facility. This is precipitated by the inability
to maintain a single family home because of increasing health problems, one or both
persons in the household becoming debilitated, the Toss of the spouse, and /or the
inability of the remaining spouse (most frequently the female) to be alone and care
for a home.
Seniors age 80 and older have a higher probability of needing nursing home
care or assisted living services. At this point in their lives, some seniors feel more
comfortable and confident in their local community facilities with which they are
familiar. When seniors begin to experience frailty, some seniors who have moved to
Sunbelt communities decide to move back to their home communities, wanting to be
near family and /or having greater trust in the community nursing homes in the
communities they lived in for years.
Population change by age segments for the Eagan Market Area and Dakota
County are located on pages 25 and 26.
The reader should note the following information:
9
In the Eagan Market Area, the population for persons in all age groups 55
years of age and older increases between the years 2010 and 2015. The
largest increase in population is in the 65 to 74 age group, which
increases by 37.9 percent. The smallest increase in population is the 55 to
64 age group, which is projected to increase by 18.3 percent.
In Dakota County, the population for persons in all age groups 55 years of
age and older increases between the years 2010 and 2015. The largest
increase in population is in the 65 to 74 age group, which increases by
36.8 percent. The smallest increase in population is in the 75 to 84 age
group, which is projected to increase by 17.3 percent.
Long -term projections for Dakota County indicate increases for persons in
all age groups 55 years of age and older between the years 2005 and
2035. The largest increase in population is in the 80 to 84 age group,
which increases by 328.4 percent. The smallest increase in population is
in the 55 to 59 age group, which is projected to increase by 27.6 percent.
Income of Senior Households
The income of the senior households in the Eagan Market Area was used to
segment the demand, presented later in this report, into those who are able to pay
privately and those who will need assistance to live in senior housing alternatives.
The charts on pages 27 and 28, show the estimated income distribution of senior
households in the Eagan Market Area and Dakota County by head of household
ages 6r to 74, 75 to 84 and 85 years of age and older, for both 2010 and 2015.
The income analysis for this update was segmented into five different
categores. For persons having incomes of less than $10,836, they would be eligible
for Medical Assistance and the Elderly Waiver Program.
Senior households with incomes of less than $30,000 (2010) and $35,000
(2015) need some type of assistance in order to access senior housing
alternatives. Thus, the demand projections, for assisted living, take into account the
number of households who can pay privately, e.g., incomes of $30,000 or greater,
and those persons that will need help, e.g., incomes of less than $30,000.
10
The reader should note the following:
Households with incomes of less than $30,000 are most often widowed
females, who rely on a low social security payment and have few assets.
Senior income data does not reflect assets seniors may have that they
can use for health care and related services. The single largest asset most
seniors have is the single family home, which is typically paid for.
In 2010, the percentage of households in the Eagan Market Area with
head of household 65 to 74 years of age and having incomes of $30,000
or greater, e.g. able to pay privately, is 78.6 percent. The percentage of
households with head of household 75 to 84 years of age and having
incomes of $30,000 or greater is 58.7 percent and the percent of
households with head of household 85 years of age and older and having
incomes of $30,000 or greater is 46.9 percent. For Dakota County, the
percentages are 74.4, 54.9 and 46.3, respectively.
In 2015, the percentage of households in the Eagan Market Area with
head of household 65 to 74 years of age and having incomes of $35,000
or greater, e.g. able to pay privately, is 75.9 percent. The percentage of
households with head of household 75 to 84 years of age and having
incomes of $35,000 or greater is 55.0 percent and the percent of
households with head of household 85 years of age and older and having
incomes of $35,000 or greater is 45.4 percent. For Dakota County, the
percentages are 72.0, 51.9 and 44.1, respectively.
11
Profiles of General and Memory Loss Assisted Living_in the Eagan Market
Area
Overview
This analysis presents profiles of general and memory loss assisted living
facilities in the Eagan Market Area.
There is a brief description of the facilities, the total number of units and the
average occupancy of the facilities in the Eagan Market Area. The detailed data
relies on information received in telephone calls to the facilities; thus, the researcher
is conveying this information with the expectation it is accurate. The researchers
experienced reluctance by some facilities to participate in the inventory process.
These facilities either did not return phone calls to the researchers or refused to
partic pate. Information listed for these facilities was taken from previous research
completed in the areas or from public senior directories.
The information describing planned developments is based on the amount of
information that was available at the time of the study and what various contacts
were willing to share. Each city in the Eagan Market Area was called to inquire about
any new developments that had been discussed with them or presented. Calling
various contacts and inquiring about their plans for expanding identified the
information for new developments. In addition, when the profiled facilities were
contacted, they were asked about their plans for the future.
Assisted Living Facilities
Detailed profiles of the general and memory loss assisted living facilities in
the Eagan Market Area can be viewed on pages 29 through 39.
General Assisted Living
There are 11 general assisted living facilities located in the Eagan Market
Area. ilhese 11 facilities have a total of 535 units and were 88.2 percent occupied at
the time of contact.
12
Memory Loss Assisted Living Facilities
There are 11 memory Toss specific assisted living facilities located in the
Eagan Market Area. These 11 facilities have a total of 221 units and were 98.0
percent occupied at the time of contact.
Planned Developments for Assisted Living
Seasons at Apple Valley is a new senior housing development by
Ecumen, currently under construction on Founders Lane in Apple Valley.
The facility will include independent housing apartments, general assisted
living, enhanced care and memory loss assisted living. The facility plans to
open March 1, 2011. This facility was included in the profile of facilities
and in the supply.
There are no other known plans for development of assisted living in the
Eagan Market Area at this time.
Demand for General Assisted Living and Alzheimer's Units in the Eagan
Market Area
Overview
This section of the analysis presents the demand for general assisted living
units and Alzheimer's units in the Eagan Market Area. The assumptions that were
used calculate the demand, as well as demand by income levels are also
preser ted.
General Assisted Living Demand
The assisted living demand, which is segmented by income, took the
following issues into consideration.
13
Very frail elderly persons are those persons projected to have three or
more limitations in their activities of daily living. Based on gerontology
research, these persons are most likely to be in need of assistance in
managing their lives on a day -to -day basis, e.g., 24 -hour staffing. In the
past, these persons would need to be in a nursing home. However, as
assisted living alternatives have developed, more of these persons can be
taken care of in a residential /assisted living setting.
Based on industry standards for estimating demand, we can anticipate
that approximately 30 percent of these persons will be willing to move to
an assisted living setting for the very frail elderly.
The table on page 40 presents the general assisted living demand
projections, which are segmented by income.
In 2010, using the previous analysis that adjusts for homeownership, there
is an estimated demand for 26 units of assisted living for persons with
incomes below $15,000, 33 units for persons with incomes between
$15,000 and $29,999 and 149 units for persons with incomes above
$30,000.
In 2015, using the previous analysis that adjusts for homeownership, there
is an estimated demand for 31 units of assisted living for persons with
incomes below $15,000, 57 units for persons with incomes between
$15,000 and $34,999 and 191 units for persons with incomes above
$35,000.
Demand for Alzheimer's and Other Forms of Dementia
The table on page 41 presents the anticipated number of persons with
mode-ate to severe Alzheimer's disease in the Eagan Market Area in 2010 and
2015. The following assumptions were used:
Based on research completed by the Alzheimer's and Related Disorders
Association, approximately 30 percent of persons with the disease will
14
need to be cared for outside of the home in either assisted living or
nursing facilities.
Persons with incomes of less than $35,000 will need some assistance in
paying for their care, and persons with incomes of $35,000 or greater will
be able to pay privately for their care.
The analysis shown on the chart on page 42 assumes that 60.0 percent of
the market rate demand will live in assisted living and 40.0 percent of the
subsidized demand will live in assisted living.
In 2010, the demand for market rate memory loss assisted living is 64 and
the demand for subsidized memory loss assisted living is 52.
In 2015, the demand for market rate memory Toss assisted living is 78 and
the demand for subsidized memory loss assisted living is 67.
The reader should note the demand for Alzheimer's and related dementia is a
partial but not total overlap with general assisted living. Many persons in general
assisted living are at earlier stages of Alzheimer's disease but are not yet a problem
for managing or do not cause problems for other residents. In addition, the demand
for assisted living assumed persons will have three or more limitations in activities of
daily living, and some persons with Alzheimer's disease who need to be taken care
of outside of their homes do not have the defined limitations but need to be in a 24-
hour supervised living environment. There is no data available that quantifies this
overlap; thus, when considering the development of any project, allowances should
be made for the overlap. If memory care assisted living is available, many persons
prefer to have a family member move to that facility in the beginning so that they are
not facing another move when the person progresses with the disease and cannot
be accommodated in general assisted living.
Supply Allocation
Determining the total number of existing units and units that will be built and
proper y allocating these units to their prospective cities and townships derives the
supply amount. The total numbers of existing units and units that will be built were
allocated according to the researcher's definitions and are based on experience in
similar markets.
15
The researchers assumed that if a project were developed in the Eagan
Market Area, 70 percent of the units would be filled by persons from this geographic
market area and the remaining 30 percent would be filled by persons from outside
that market area.
The tables on pages 43 and 44 present the supply allocations used in this
analysis.
Summary of Supply and Demand for General and Memory Loss Assisted
Living in the Eagan Market Area
The tables summarizing the supply and demand for general and memory loss
assisted living for the Eagan Market Area can be found on pages 45 and 46.
General and Memory Loss Assisted Living
In 2010, there is an oversupply of 190 units of market rate general assisted
living and an oversupply of 48 units of subsidized general assisted living. In 2015,
there is an oversupply of 129 market rate units and an oversupply of seven units of
subsid zed general assisted living.
In 2010, there is an oversupply of 78 units of market rate memory loss
assisted living and an unmet demand for 23 units of subsidized memory Toss
assisted living. In 2015, there is an oversupply of 57 units of market rate memory
loss asisted living and an unmet demand for 43 units of subsidized memory loss
assisted living.
Limitai:ions of a Market Study
This market study presents an analysis of a given market based on
experience in other markets and reasonable industry assumptions about demand. A
market study cannot predict what the actual experience in the market will be. Market
conditions at the time of the facility's opening, unforeseen and/or unpredictable
events occurring in the market, the quality of the product offered, the marketing and
management staff and many other events influence the success of a project and are
16
beyond the scope of a market study. The researcher also relies on other sources of
data, i.e., Claritas, Inc., Minnesota State Demographic Center, 2000 U.S. Census,
and these resources are presumed to be reliable. Health Planning Management
Resources, Inc. is nct responsible for errors in this data.
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POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE SEGMENTS
FOR PERSONS 55 YEARS OF AGE AND OLDER a
FOR THE EAGAN MARKET AREA
2000, 2010 AND 2015
DAKOTA COUNTY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AGENCY
EAGAN. !MINNESOTA
Population
Percent
Aar Segment
2000
2010
2015
Change
Change
2010 -201
20 -2015
55 -64
12,774
20,738
24,537
+3,799
+18.3%
65 -74
5,878
9,589
13,222
+3,633
+37.9%
75 -84
2,810
3,637
4,620
+983
+27.0%
85+
850
1,169
1,430
+261
+22.3%
Total 55+
22,312
35,133
43,809
+8,676
+24.7%
Total 65+
9,538
14,395
19,272
+4,877
+33.9%
Age Segment
POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE SEGMENTS
FOR PERSONS 55 YEARS OF AGE AND OLDER
DAKOTA COUNTY
2000, 2010 AND 2015
DAKOTA COUNTY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AGENCY
EAGAN, MINNESOTA
2000
2010
Population
2015 Change
2010 -2015
Percent
Change
2010 2015
;5 -64
65 -74
'5 -84
85+
Total 55+
Total 65+
Source: Claritas, Inc.
26,137
14,842
8,502
2,902
52,383
26,246
45,711
22,382
10,423
3,793
82,309
36,598
25
56,731
30,626
12,228
4,568
104,153
47,422
+11,020
+8,244
+1,805
+775
+21,844
+10,824
+24.1%
+36.8%
+17.3%
+20.4%
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+29.6%
POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE SEGMENTS
FOR PERSONS 55 YEARS OF AGE AND OLDER
DAKOTA COUNTY
2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030 AND 2435
DAKOTA COUNTY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AGENCY
EAGAN, MINNESOTA
Percent
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PROFILE OF GENERAL ASSISTED LIVING
IN THE EAGAN MARKET AREA
DAKOTA COUNTY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AGENCY, EAGAN, MINNESOTA
DECEMBER 2010
(PAGE3OF6)
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Monthly Fees
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Studio:
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1- Bedroom:
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Studio:
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36: $4,670- $5,100
Shared: $4,250
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DEMAND FOR GENERA'... SS iSTED LIVING UNITS
FOR THE EAGAN MARKET AREA
DAKOTA COUNTY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AGENCY, EAGAN, MINNESOTA
Demand Adjusted for I
Homeownership
For Incomes of
$25,000 to $29,999
616
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Number of Income and
Disability Qualified Persons
in the Market Area 1
9917
9017
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Disability Qualified Persons
ih 41-se, 11R,r1."4 A rPlh 1
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<$15,000
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$20,000 $24,999
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2 Total <$30,000
$30,000 $34,999
$35,000
3 Total $30,000
91.03
<$15,000
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$30,000 $34,999
2 Total <$35,000
$35,000 $39,999
$40,000
3 Total $35,000
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Source: Claritas, Inc. and HP&MR,
NUMBER OF PERSONS WITH MODERATE OR SEVERE ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE
FOR THE EAGAN MARKET AREA
DAKOTA COUNTY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AGENCY, EAGAN. MINNESOTA
2010 AND 2015
Subsidized
Demand
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Number of Persons
with Alzheimer's
Disease Who Will Be
Cared For Outside
Their Home`
8.63
18.70
13.64
27.82
168.69
237.47
PESO
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Persons with
Alzheimer's
Disease'
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