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HomeMy WebLinkAbout5.a. Metropolitan Council Forecast Revisions3 CITY OF ROSEMOUNT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FOR ACTION CITY COUNCIL MEETING DATE: September 1, 1992 AGENDA ITEM: Metropolitan Council Forecast AGENDA SECTION: Revisions OLD BUSINESS PREPARED BY: Lisa Freese, Director of Planning AGENDA ffE M # ATTACHMENTS: Metropolitan Council Forecasts APPROVED BY: for Dakota County. After asking the Metropolitan Council staff to revisit their preliminary population, household, and employment forecasts, I have been informed that Rosemount's projections have been revised upward. These forecasts will be used by the Metropolitan Council as they work on the update of the Metropolitan Development Investment Framework over the next two years. It is my understanding that the forecasts could be revised as a result of the policy decisions made through that process. The forecasts will not be officially adopted by the Metropolitan Council until that process is completed. RECOMMENDED ACTION: - NO ACTION REQUIRED - COUNCIL ACTION• v71v117L w1r Revised 8/17/92.. Metropolitan Council Forecasts s . ___ __ } D_a_k_ota__CountY _Population _ _ POPULATION CHANGE - -__ --+---- ----- --- ;- 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1960-1'g9U , 1990-2000 1 2000-2010 : •2010-2020 - CITY : Net . 1 Net % : Net % 1 Net:., % - - APPLE VALLEY : 21,818 34,598 42,000 47,000 49,500 12,780 591„ 7,402 17.62X1 5,000 11.90:1 4,500 7.72X: 2,500 5.32% ($00)-1.27% F3URNSVILLE : 35,674 51,288 58,300 62,800 62.,000 i 15,614 44`x: 7,012 12.03%: 70 5X: ,- 50 3X: 0 -0% --- --- CASTLE ROCK : 1,340 1,480 1,550 1,600 1,600 1 170 1 140 (21) lU":: -10..: (6) -3%1 (10) -6X1 '" 0 OX COATES : 207 186 180 170 690 690 56 9%: 20 3X1 0 OX: 0 0% DOUGLAS' EAGAN : 614 : 20,700 670 -47,409 690 63,500 68,500 71,000 : 26,709 129%: 16,091 25%: 5,000 8X1 13X: -2,500- 650 38% EMPIRE : 1,224 1,340 1,500 1,700 2,350 : 116 9"a: 160 95 11%: 6%: 200 100 7%: 450 28% EUREKA : 1,268 1,405 1,500 1,600 2,050 : 16,200 137 1,570 1.1%1 36%: 2,760 321.11.- 4,200 48X: , 26%•- -3,300-,-,--26%--- FARMINGTON -- : 4,370 5,940 8,700 12,900 44 7%, 25 4%, (10) -1%1 10 : ';i GREENVALE C : 641 685 710 700 410 710 430 : 64 21%: 37 9%1 10 3X: 20 5% "' HAMPTON : 299 363 400 890 900 910 : 18 2%: 24 3%: 10 W,10 lX HAMPTON T HASTINGS (PART) : 848 : 12,811 866 15,440 17,600 19,800 22,200 : 2,629 21%: 2,160 12%: 18%1 2,200 5,500 13%1 20%; 2,400 12% 7,500 23% IASTI GROVE HEIGHTS INVER GROVE i 17,171 22,477 27,500 33,000 40,1,00 : 5,306 31%: 68%: 5,023 16,146 39X1 15,000 -•- 37%1 17,500• •--31X KEVILL ; 14,790 24,854 41,000 56,000 73,500 : 10,064 89 21%: 34 6%: 30 6%: 20 4% L : 417 506 540 570 1,350 590 1 1,300 : (369) -22%: 14 1%: 50 4%: MARSHAN : 1,655 1,286 1,300 150 190 : {55) -25%: 6 4%: 10 6%: 10---- 6%. MENDOTA HEIGHTS : 219 : 7,288 164 9,431 170 10,800 12,150 13,300 ; 2,143 29%: 1,369 13%1 1,350 lOX; 1.1500 OX MENDOTA MIESVILLE : 179 135 130 130 130 : (44) -2.5:: ( 5) -4%1 4%1 0 0 --0%1 0 •- - NEW TRIER TRISNGER :... .... 115 _. _. . 96 100 100 100 : (19) 31 -17:: 4%1 4 25 3%1 - 10 --- W, ;OX . 20 2% NIW : 774 805 830 840 860 ; 330 : ( 20)' -6%: (1) -0%: x �4 RANDOLPH : 351 331 330 580 330 660 730 : 63 1C,%: 132 23X: 80 - - 14X: 70 ---" ^101X RANDOLPH T : 385 : 1,683 448 .1,926 2,050 2,150 2,250: 24'3 1.4:1 124 6%1 100 5X1 51%1 100 5% . 10,0000 405X% ; RANDOLP ROSEMOUNT : 5,083 8,622 14,800 22,300 32,300 : 3,539 70X: 6,178 42%: 3%: 7,500 0 OX: SCI07A - i-• -- 242 21,235 252 20,197 260 21,000 260 21,700 260 : 22,500 ; 10.' (1,038), 4%: -5%: 8 803 4%1 700 �" • 3X1 800 4X _• SOUTH ST PAUL SUNFISH LAKE : i 344 413 510 550 560 : 69 20%: 97 19%1 9X: 40 40-.-..-- 8%1 -7%: 10 40.- 7X ' VERMILLION :- 438 510 560 600 640 : r 72 131 16X: mak# 1�•., 50 99 8%: 0 O%: 50 t ' 4X VERMILLION T : 1,070 1,201 1,300 1,300 1,350 : (1) -Ove: 15 3%1 (10) -2X1 (10) -2X WATERFORD : 486 455 500 490 480 21,600 : 1 U`:: 952 5%1. 900 ..4Xi 500,. r-2% r WEST ST PAUL ----- -: 18,527 19,248 20,200 21,100 , ----------------------------------------------- _-_--------+---------- ._ . ---------------+----------------------------------- : $0,071 41: 66,923 20X, 52,550 15x1 48,750- -•12%_ - COUNTY TOTAL :194,266 275,057 341,980 394,530 443,280 ROSEMOUNT (% OF TOTAL): 3% 3% 4% 6% 7= - Revised 8/17/92 j Metropolitan Council Forecast .. _.�... C!.'.:..tC.. "+"" .. _ •'kms'._.. 1, Dakota County Households--------------- - ..----.,.-+•-----------------------------------'"1111--+_-------------------------------"----------- -, HOUSEHOLDS CHANGE --------------1111-- --------1111-1111-- ------+----------------------------------------------------------- 2010-2020 ; 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980-1990 ; 1990-2000 i 2000-2010 ; % CITY Net ; ..Net Net % ; Net --------------- -------- +--1111-- -------------------------------------+--------------+--------------+--------1111-- +-------------- APPLE VALLEY _:.. 6,376 12,145 14,400 17,200 19,400 1 4,769 75X; 3,255 22.60%1 16.84%1 2,800 3,300 19.44X; 14.35%; 2,200 1,200 12.79% 4.56% BURNSVILLE ; 12,080 19,127 23,000 6,300 27,500 ; 7,047 58%1 16%1 3,873 50 10%1 30 6X1 40 7% CASTLE ROCK ; 395 460 510 540 580 ; 65 1 2%; 4 6% 1 0 0%; O 0% . COATES ; i 65 164 66 192 70 210 70 230 70 ; 240 ; 28 17%1 18 . 9%1 20 10X; 10 4% DOUGLAS i 6,824 17,427 25,000 29,000 32,000 10,603 155%1 7,573 30%1 4,000 16%1 3,000 10% EAGAN i 360 426 500 590 880 ; 66 18%1 74 15X; 90 18%1 290 49% EMPIRE ; 373 447 510 580 770 1 74 20%1 63 12X; 70 14X1 190 33% EUREKA FARMINGTON ; 1,511 2,064 3,050 4,600 5,800 ; 553 37X; 986 32%1 1,550 51%1 8%; 1,200 20 26% 7% GREENVALE ; 187 228 250 270 290 ; 41 22%; 22 12 9q; 9%1 20 0 0%; 10 8 HAMPTON ; 101 118 130 130 320 140 , 340 ; 17 37 17%; 17%1 30 10%1 30 10%1 20 6% HAMPTON T HASTINGS (PART) ; ; 223 4,197 260 5,401 290 6,400 7,250 8,200 1,204 29%1 999 16X; 22%1 850 2,850 13%" 29%1 950 4,000- 13% 311: INVER GROVE HEIGHTS ; 5,551 7,803 9,950 12,800 16,800 ; 2,252 41%1 81%1 2,147 5,649 42%1 6,800 50%1 8,200 40% LAKEVILLE i 4,337 7,851 13,500 20,300 28,500 3,514 75 34%1 43 13%1 40 12%1 30 8% LILYDALE ; 222 297 340 380 410 490 (58) -13%1 47 11%1 40 10X1 30 7% MARSHAN 431 373 420 70 460 80 80 (il) -14X; 1 1%1 10 24%1 0 0% MENDOTA MENDOTA HEIGHTS ; ; 80 2,210 69 3,302 4,150 5,000 5,850 ; 1,092 49X; 848 20X; 850 20%; 0%, 850 0 17% 0% MIESVILLE ; 49 47 50 50 5 0 30 (2) ( 2 ) • -4%1 � -6%; 3 1 6%1 3 0 0 OX : 0 0 NEW TRIER ; 1 31 201 29 241 30 270 30 300. 320 , 40 20%1 29 ,%; 11%1 30 11X1 ' 20 7% NININGER 1 110 111 110 120 120 1 1 1%1 (1) , -1:, 10 9%, 0 OX RANDOLPH 1 118 158 220 260 310 1 40 34%1 62 28%1 40 18X1 50 19X RANDOLPH T 1 433 546 640 720 790 113 26%1 94 15%1 80 13%1 70 10% RANDOLPVENNA ROSEMOUNT 1 1,456 2,779 51000 81000 11,600 ; 1,323 '91%1 2,221 44%1 3,000 60X1 11X1 3,600 10 45": 10% SCIOTA 1 75 86 90 100 110 1 11 15%1 2%1 4 286 4%1 3%1 10 300 4X1 300 4% SOUTH ST PAUL 1 7,748 7,914 8,200 6,500 8,800 166 29X1 42 23X1 30 17X1 10 5% SUNFISH LAKE ' 107 138 180 210 220 1 210 31 34 28%1 23 13X.1 20 11X1 10 5% VERMILLION 1 123 157 180 410 200 450 490 1 ' 56 14X1 40 10%1 40 9% VERMILLION T 1 281 354 210 18 11%1 8 4%1 10 5%1 10 5% WATERFORD 1 164 7,501 182 8,441 190 8,850 -200 9,300 9,500 1 0%1 409 5%1 450 5x1 200 2% WEST ST PAUL , 1 ----------------------+------------------127-1------------ ---------+--------------+--------1111-- +--------------+--------1111-- 23X; 27,370 22%! 26,560 17% COUNTY TOTAL 1 64,084 98,239 127,170 154,540 181,100 1 33,216 52%; 28,931 , ROSEMOUNT (% OF TOTAL)! 2% 3% 4'. 500 6% Revised 8/17/92 -Metropoiitan-Council Forecasts Dakota Count Employment y -_-- --------1----------------------------------------------------------- ------------- --+-------------------------------- CHANGE _----- EMPLOYMENT +----------------------------- +--------------------------- ------------'-;--+--------------+-------------- 2010 2020 1980-1990 1990-2000 1 2000-2' 2�e0-2020 CITY ' CITY' 1980 1990 2000 Net % ; Net % , ' --+-------------- ; 6,528 8 50 10,200 10,600 19,400 ; 2,422 37e: 1,250 ' 12.25a�3.66%1(15,000)****** 400 1,500 3.92%; 8,800 83.02'. APPLE VALLEY 25,438 36,000 41,000 42,500 27,500 ; 10,562 42%, 5,000 12.20%; 8%; 10 W, 200 53% BURNSVILLE ROCK ; 273 340 370 3$0 580 67 30 25%; 33%; 30 20 14%; 10 7%; (80) -53% .CASTLE COATES ' 90 120 140 130 70 240 20 40%; 10 ' 13%: 10 13%, 150 167% DOUGLAS ' ; 50 21,193 70 26,000 80 36,300 90 40,300 41,800 ; 4,807 23%; 10,300 28%; 12%; 4,000 10 14%j 4%, 1'610 226% EAGAN ' 167 230 260 270 880 63 38%; 30 60 16%; 10 3%; 390 103% EMPIRE i EUREKA ' 250 310 370 380 770 ; 60 608 24%; i' 26:, 400 12%i 500 15%i 1,950 51% FARMINGTON ; 2,342 2,950 3,350 3.850 5,800 ; 290 23%' 30 $%� 10 3%; (120) -29% GREENVALE ' 302 370 400 410 140 140 68 10 8%; 10 gs;� 0 0% HAMPTON 100 120 130 110 140 40 80e, 20 18%; 0 0%; 230 209" 2% HAMPTON T(PART) ' 50 6,982 90 7,700 110 71950 8,050 8,200 71$ , 10'vy 2 50 900 %' 3^, 10%; 100 300 W 3%; 150 7,200 75% HASTINGS GROVE INVER GROVE HEIGHTS ; 5,724 8,400 9,300 9,600 16,800 ; 2,676 3,1870 47%; 490/' 1,9500 177%% 500 � 16 ,300 134% INVER LLE ; LAKLILYDALE 6,563 9,750 11,700 12,200 28,500 � 360 720% ; 50 50 330 50 38p 50 390 410 190 i 91 38%i 50 ' 13%, 10 3%; 6yi 100 (770) 26% -91% MARSHAN ' 239 534 670 800 850 80 ; 136 25%; 130 16%; 10%i 50 250 3%; (2,(0o) _ MENDOTA , MENDOTA HEIGHTS i 5,805 7,550 8,400 6,650 5,850 1,745 O 30%i 0%; 850 10 17%� O Oyi _17% MIESVILLE ; 50 50 60 60 50 i 0 O.� 10 17%, 0 O., ( 30 ) -50% NEW TRIER i 50 50 160 f'O 200 60 210 `t0 3;O ' 60 60 % i 40 20%; 10 5%i 0%; 110 50 52% 71"a NININGER ; 100 50 60 70 70 110 10 20%; 10 14%; 13%; 0 10 13%1 220 244% RANDOLPH RANDOLPH T i 50 70 8U 90 310 20 40%; , 10 0 0%; 10 33%i 750 1875% RAVENNA' 20 30 30 40 790 6,580 10 (952) -22%; 22%; 1,302 28%� 1,300 ' 28%, 630 11% 22% ROSEMOUNT ; 4,300 3,348 4,650 -°,.950 110 � 20 40%; 10 13�c, 10 13%j 20 � SCIOTA , ; 50 5,564 70 6,050 80 h,350 90 E..500 8,$00 486 9%' 300 5%; , 0%, 150 0 2%; 0%; 2,300 170 35% 340% SOUTH ST PAUL SUNFISH LAKE 50 50 5o 5n 220 � 0 33 0%; 20%; 0 30 13%; 10 � 4%, (30) -13% VERMILLION i 167 200 230 240 no , 490 20 40%; 10 13%; 10 13x; 400 444% VERMILLION T 50 70 80 90 210 ; 59 31%; 40 14%; 10 3%; (90) -30% WATERFORD ; 191 250 290 300 12,500 9,500 ; 1 0%, 1,100 %' 9•, 500 4%: (3,000) -24% WEST ST PAUL ; 9,264 10,900 12,000 % }-------------------.----------- 2--- 165,220 165 185,880 27,087 269; 24,162 16%; 9,700 6%, 20,66 - COUNTY TOTAL ;102,636 , 131,358 155,520 , , ROSEMOUNT (% OF TOTAL)', 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% Revised 8/17/92 (corrected) Metropolitan Council Forecasts Dakota County, Employment ----------------------+-----------------------------------+---------------------------------------------+ EMPLOYMENT; CHANGE CITY ; 1990 2000 2010 2020 ; 1990-2000 ; 2000-2010 ; 2010-2020 ; Net o Net % ; Net ----------------------+-----------------------------------+--------------+--------------+--------- + APPLE VALLEY 6,528 8,950 10,200 10,600 2,422 37%; 1,250 12.25%; 400. 3.92%; BURNSVILLE ; 25,438 36,000 41,000 42,500 10,562 42%; 5,000 12.20%; 1,500 3.66.; CASTLE ROCK ; 273 340 370 380 ; 67 25%; 30 8%; 10 3% COATES ; 90 120 140 150 30' 33%; 20 14%; 10 7%; ,,DOUGLAS- i 50 70 80 90 20 40%: 10 13%i 10 13%i PAGAN i 26,000- 36,300 40,300 41,800 10,300. 40%: 4,000 10%; 1,500 4%; EMPIRE 167 230 260 270 i 63 38%i 30 12%: 10 4%i EUREKA ; 250 310 370 380 ; 60 24%; 60 16%; 10 3%; -FARMINGTON ; 2,342- 2,950 3,3`50 3,850 ; 608 26%; 400 12%; 500 15%; GREENVALE ; 302 370 400 410'; 68 23%; 30 8%; 10 3%; HAMPTON i 100 120 130 140 } 20 20%i 10 8%: 10 8%i HAMPTON T' ; 50 90 110 110 ; 40 80%; 20 18%; 0 0% HASTINGS (PART) ; 6,982 7,700 7,950 8,050 ; 718 10%; 250 3%; 100 W INVER GROVE HEIGHTS ; 5,724 8,400 91300 9,600 ; 2,676 47%; 900 10%; 300 3%; LAKEVILLE ;_ 6,563 9,750 11,700 12,200 ; 3,187 49%; 1,950 17%; 500 4% LILYDALE ; 50 50 50 50'; 0 O%; O 0%i 0 0%i MARSHAN 239 330 380 390 91 38%; 50 13%; 10 3%: MENDOTA i 534 670 800 850 -136 25%i 130 16%: 50" 6%: MENDOTA HEIGHTS ; 5,805 7,550 8,400 8,650 ; 1,745 30%; 850 10%; 250 3% MIESVILLE 50 50 60 60 0 0%: 10 17%j 0' OV NEW: TRIER 50 50 60 60 0 0%; 10 17%; 0 0V NININGER i- 100 160 200 210 60 60%; 40 20%i 10., 5%i RANDOLPH" ; 50 60 70 70 10 20%; 10 14%; 0 0%; RANDOLPH T 50 70 80 90 20 40%; 10 13%; 10 13% RAVENNA ; 20 30 30 40 10 50%; 0 0%; 10 33%: ROSEMOUNT i 4,300 3,348 4,650 5,950 (952) -22%: 1,302 28%i 1,300 28%i SCIOTA , 50 70 80 90 ; 20 40%; 10 13%; 10 13% SOUTH ST PAUL ; 5,564 6,050 6,350 6,500 486 9%; 300 5%; 150 2% SUNFISH LAKE 4 50 50 50 50 0 0%; 0 0%; 0 0% VERMILLION 167 200 230 240 33 20%: 30 _ 13%: 10 4%i VERMILLION T 50 70 80 90 20 40%; 10 13%; 10 13% WATERFORD 191 250 290 300 59 31%; 40 14%; 10 3%; WEST ST PAUL i" 9,264 10,900_'12,000 12,500 1 0%{ 11100 9%i- 500 4%; ---_...------.-------_--_--------------------,--_-_•-_---_-_-..---__-----,------------_-_--_.___._-_----_--------- " COUNTY TOTAL :107,443 141,658 159,520 166,720 32,580 30%; 17,862 11%: 7,200. 5%: PRELIMINARY Population, Households and Employment by City, 1980-2020 (subject to revision during review period ending 8/14/92) -------------------POPULATION-------------------- -------------------HOUSEHOLDS-------------------- ---------------EMPLOYMENT- ---------- 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1990 2000 2010 2020 DAKOTA COUNTY APPLE VALLEY 21,818 34,598. 42,000 47,000 49,500 6,376 11,145 14,400 17,200 19,400 6,528 8,950 10,200 10,600 BURNSVILLE 35,674 51,288 57,500 59,500 58,500 12,080 19,127 22,700 24,900 26,000 25,438 36,000 41,000 42,500 CASTLE ROCK 1,340 1,480 1,550 1,600 1,600 395 460 510 540 580 273 340 370 380 COATES 207 186 180 170 170 65 66 70 70 70 90 120 140 150 DOUGLAS 614 670 690 690 690 164 192 210 230 240 50 70 80 90 EAGAN 20,700 47,409 63,500 68,500 71,000 6,824 17,427 25,000• 29,000 32,000 21,193 31,500 35,500 37,000 EMPIRE 1,224 1,340 1,500 1,700 2,350 360 426 500 590 880 16T 230 260 270 EUREKA 1,268 1,405 1,500 1,600 2,050 373 447 510 580 770 250 310 370 380 FARMINGTON 4,370 5,940 7,550 9,950 13,200 1,511 2,064 2,650 3,550 4,700 2,342 2,950 3,350 3,850 GREENVALE 641 685 710 700 710 187 228 250 270 290 302 370 400 410 HAMPTON 299 363 400 410 430 101 118 130 130 140 100 120 130 140 HAMPTON T 848 866 890 900 910 223 260 290 320 340 50 90 110 110 HASTINGS'(PART) 12,811 15,440 17,600 19,800 22,200 4,197 5,401 6,400 7,250 8,200 6,982 7,700 7,950 8,050 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS 17,171 22,477 27,500 33,000 40,500 5,551 7,803 9,950 12,800 16,800 5,724 8,400 9,300 9,600 LAKEVILLE 14,790 24,854 41,000 56,000 73,500 4,337 7,851 13,500 20,300 28,500 6,563 9,750 11,700 12,200 LILYDALE 41T 506 540 570 590 222 297 340 380 410 50 50 50 50 MARSHAN 1,655 1,286 1,300 1,350 1,300 431 373 420 460 490 239 330 380 390 MENDOTA 219 164 170 180 190 80 69 70 80 80 534 670 800 850 MENDOTA HEIGHTS 7,288 9,431 10,800 12,150 13,300 2,210 3,302 4,150 5,000 5,850 5,805 7,550 8,400 8,650 MIESVILLE 179 135 130 130 130 49 47 50 50 50 50 50 60 60 NEW TRIER 115 96 100 100 100 31 29 30 30 30 • 50 50 60 60 HININGER 774 805 830 840 860 201 241 2711 300 320 100 160 200 210 RANDOLPH 351 331 330 330 330 110 111 110 120 120 50 60 TO TO RANDOLPH T 385 448 580 660 730 118 158 220 260 310 50 70 80 90 RAVENNA 1,683 1,926 2,050 2,150 2,250 433 546 640 720 790 20 30 30 40 ROSEMOUNT 5,083 8,622 12,400 19,100 27,500 1,456 2,779 4,200 6,850 10,400 3,348 4,200 4,800 4,900 SCIOTA 242 252 260 260 260 75 86 90 100 110 50 70 80 90 SOUTH ST PAUL 21,235 20,197 21,000 21,700 22,500 7,748 T,914 8,200 8,500 8,800 5,564 6,050 6,350 6,500 SUNFISH LAKE 344 413 510 550 560 107 138 180 210 220 50 50 50 50 VERMILLION 438 510 560 600 640 123 157 180 200 210 167 200 230 240 VERMILLION T 1,070 1,201 1,300 1,300 1,350 281 354 410 450 490 50 70 80 90 WATERFORD 486 485 500 490 480 164 182 190 200 210 191 250 290 300 WEST ST. PAUL 18,527 19,248 20,200 21,100 21,600 7,501 -8,441 8,850 9,300 9,500 9,264 10,900 12,000 12,500 TOTAL 194,266 275,057 337,630 385,080 431,980 64,084 98,239 125,670 150,940 177,300 101,684 137,710 154,870 160,870