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HomeMy WebLinkAbout5.b. Technology Task Force Partnership on Electric Vehicle Programs EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Environment & Sustainability Commission Meeting: November 9, 2021 AGENDA ITEM: Partnership with Technology Task Force AGENDA SECTION: on Electric Vehicles Programs Old Business PREPARED BY: Jane Byron, Storm Water Specialist AGENDA NO. 5.b. ATTACHMENTS: Business Case for Need for Electric APPROVED BY: BLE Vehicle Related Policies & Programs RECOMMENDED ACTION: Discussion DISCUSSION At its August meeting, the Environment & Sustainability Commission (ESC) voted to work in partnership with the Technology Task Force (TTF) to explore policies and programs to encourage greater use of electric vehicles in Rosemount. Commissioners Angerer and Ciresi volunteered to liaise with members of the Task Force that are working on the issue. The TTF has put together the attached document that lays out the justification for electric vehicle programs and policies in the City of Rosemount. The TTF is seeking clarification from the ESC on how the two bodies will collaborate (e.g. active collaboration on policy development, review of policies developed by TTF, etc.) Additional information on electric vehicle programs:  https://pluginamerica.org/policy/policy-resources/webinar-series-minnesotans-going-electric/  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvJ6Low2x3c  https://www.driveelectricmn.org/becoming-ev-ready/  https://mn.gov/puc/energy/electric-vehicles/  https://www.pca.state.mn.us/air/clean-cars-mn  https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/laws/ELEC?state=MN SUMMARY No action required. C:\\Users\\jab\\AppData\\Local\\Temp\\5.b. Technology Task Force Partnership on Electric Vehicle Programs_694517\\5.b. Technology Task Force Partnership on Electric Vehicle Programs.docx Electric Vehicle (EV) Charging Station - Rosemount, MN Technology Taskforce Member: Furhath Arnob Date: 9/7/2021 Why EV? We are in the middle of the biggest revolution in motoring since Henry Ford's first production line started turning back in 1913. And it is likely to happen much more quickly than you imagine. Many industry observers believe we have already passed the tipping point where sales of electric vehicles (EVs) will very rapidly overwhelm petrol and diesel cars. Example Jaguar plans to sell only electric cars from 2025, Volvo from 2030 and past January the British sportscar company Lotus said it would follow suit, selling only electric models from 2028. General Motors says it will make only electric vehicles by 2035, Ford says all vehicles sold in Europe will be electric by 2030 and VW says 70% of its sales will be electric by 2030. Any similar change in the past? ‘Internet’; EV market of 2020s is exactly where Internet was back in late 90s to early 2000s. Back then, there was a big buzz about this new thing with computers talking to each other. Jeff Bezos had set up Amazon, and Google was beginning to take over from the likes of Altavista, Ask Jeeves and Yahoo. Some of the companies involved had racked up eye-popping valuations. However, for those who hadn't yet logged on it all seemed exciting and interesting but irrelevant - how useful could communicating by computer be? After all, we've got phones! But the internet, like all successful new technologies, did not follow a linear path to world domination. It didn't gradually evolve, giving us all the time to plan. Its growth was explosive and disruptive, crushing existing businesses and changing the way we do almost everything. And it followed a familiar pattern, known to technologists as an S-curve. \[Title\] 1 S-curve and EV For the Internet, the graph begins at 22:30 on 29 October 1969. That's when a computer at the University of California in LA contacted another in Stanford University a few hundred miles away. The researchers typed an L, then an O, then a G. The system crashed before they could complete the word "login". A decade later there were still only a few hundred computers on the network, but the pace of change was accelerating. In the 1990s the more tech-savvy started buying personal computers. As the market grew, prices fell rapidly, and performance improved in leaps and bounds - encouraging more and more people to log on to the internet. The S is beginning to sweep upwards here, growth is becoming exponential. By 1995 there were some 16 million people online. By 2001, there were 513 million people. Now there are more than three billion. What happens next is our S begins to slope back towards the horizontal. The rate of growth slows as virtually everybody who wants to be, is now online. EVs are now sitting right the ‘Exponential growth as prices fall’ category. Since the prices are becoming very affordable and plenty of tax incentives are getting introduced, the growth will only grow. There are many sources stating by 2030 EVs will be saturating the market like Internet for 2010s. Fact and Data At President Joe Biden’s urging, the auto industry pledged to boost production of electric vehicles to the point that they account for about half of total U.S. sales by 2030, a plan that raises hopes that EVs can shift from niche to normal. EVs, including Tesla TSLA, 2.67%, accounted for 2.4% of U.S. cars sold in 2020, up from 0.7% five years ago, according to BloombergNEF. The research provider expects that share to increase to 11% in 2025; by 2030, it expects that slightly over a third of vehicles sold in the U.S. will be electric. Not to mention Tesla is driving the EV market while others are catching up as well. For example: \[Title\] 2 - Audi: Audi, a brand known for its luxury cars and owned by Germany’s Volkswagen AG VOW, -0.35%, has promised to have battery-electric vehicles comprise 35% of its sales by 2025. By that time, Audi buyers will choose from about 20 EV models. - BMW: BMW AG BMW, +0.78%, a luxury-car maker from Germany, was among the first EV innovators. It launched its i3 compact EV eight years ago, then as one of the few serious competitors to Tesla Inc.’s vehicles. BMW’s EV pipeline has slowed, but the auto maker has promised that 25% of its European sales will be all-electric and hybrid vehicles this year, and that all sales of its Mini brand will be battery electric by 2030. It expects to launch more than 10 battery EVs models in the next couple of years. - Mercedes-Benz: Mercedes-Benz, owned by Daimler AG DAI, +0.41%, expects that between 15% and 25% of its sales will be comprised of EV sales by 2025; by 2030, that percentage is expected to grow to 50%. Mercedes-Benz is slated to end 2021 offering three new electric passenger car models and more to come in 2022. - Ford: Ford Motor Co. F, -0.43% has said that 40% of its global sales by 2030 will be sales of EVs. Ford is aiming to have dozens of electrified models by 2022, the year that will also mark the debut of its much- awaited all-electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck. Ford has called the Lightning the “pillar” of its more than $22 billion bet on EVs, which includes EV models for other best-selling vehicles such as the Mustang and its Transit van. - GM: General Motors Co. GM, -0.36% surprised Wall Street in January by saying it aims to phase out all of its internal combustion engine vehicles by 2035 and only sell zero-emission vehicles by then. The auto maker also promises to be carbon-neutral by 2040. GM has said that it will offer 30 all-electric models globally by mid-decade, and that 40% percent of the company’s U.S. models will be battery electric vehicles by the end of 2025. Its Hummer electric is expected for next year, with production starting this fall. - Honda: The Japanese maker HMC, 1.01%, which owns the namesake Honda brand and also the luxury- car brand Acura, is projected to derive 40% of its sales from EVs and fuel-cell electric cars by 2030. In April 2020, Honda and GM announced a partnership to develop Honda electric cars using GM’s Ultium batteries. - Hyundai: The Korean car maker 005380, -1.16%, which also owns Kia, is aiming to have 40% of its Kia and Hyundai brands sales to be of EVs and fuel-cell electric vehicles by 2025. Its Hyundai brand plans on more than 30 electric passenger vehicles by then. - Mazda: Mazda plans to offer 5% of its vehicles as battery electric by 2030, but EV sales targets as a percentage of total sales are unknown now. Mazda does not offer EVs in the U.S., but sells a few EV and hybrid models elsewhere. - Nissan: Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. 7201, +0.44% was among the first auto makers to offer an all-electric vehicle, and it’s the Nissan Leaf for years was one of the few options available for those without the deep pockets needed for a Tesla Inc. TSLA, 2.67% Model S. Nissan plans to offer 20 EV models in China by next year, and for the U.S. the company recently said it plans that more than 40% of its U.S. vehicle sales by 2030 will be fully electric. - Porsche: The car maker and almost synonym of sports cars is aiming to have half of its sales be of EV vehicles by 2025. - Stellantis: Stellantis NV STLA, -1.65%, the global auto maker formed earlier this year through the merger of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV and France’s PSA Group, said in July it was investing $35 billion in EVs \[Title\] 3 and adjacent technologies through 2025. By that year, Stellantis is expected to derive 31% of its U.S. sales and 38% of its European sales from EVs, percentages that are seen growing to 35% of U.S. sales and 70% of European sales by 2030. - Subaru: The Japanese maker 7270, +0.39% is expected to derive 40% of its sales from EVs and hybrid electric vehicles by 2030. - Toyota: Some 70% of sales for the world’s No. 1 car maker TM, 1.05% are expected to come from EVs and fuel-cell electric vehicles by 2030. Toyota plans to offer 15 battery EV models by 2025. The car maker, of course, broke ground with its hybrid Toyota Prius two decades ago. - Volkswagen: The car maker VOW3, -0.87% is expected to derive 70% of its European sales from EVs and 50% of its U.S. sales from EVs by 2030. Volkswagen has pledged to spend about $40 billion through 2025 on EVs. - Volve: Volvo is aiming to derive 50% of its global sales from EVs by 2025, with the rest being hybrid vehicles. By 2030, the company expects to sell only EVs, and to be carbon neutral by 2040. Observation Since it is eminent that EV will be a greater available technology in the future, it is normal to have predictions on EV solutions. With that comes the responsibility of forming policies around EVs. Also making room for charging stations for EVs. Technology Taskforce Recommendation City of Rosemount should have technology solutions available and policies in place supporting EVs going forward. A step towards that direction is already in place. Communication for EV charging station is happening in Technology Taskforce meetings. We also recommend forming other EV related policies for City of Rosemount (in and around) to become an EV advocate in greater Twin Cities area. Also a great way to welcome EVs would be to make charging stations for them. Proposal - Install EV Charging station in city properties - Apartments should also include EV charging ports in common areas - EV friendly policies for commercial properties Also, draft EV friendly policies city wide. \[Title\] 4